申万宏源发布研报称，维持大麦娱乐(01060)"买入"评级，主要考虑到公司IP业务高增、演出业务稳步扩 张，看好公司在高景气现场娱乐赛道的中长期价值。 演出方面 核心国内演唱会品类稳增，启动向外出海、向上游延伸。FY26H1实现收入13.4亿同比+14.5%;分部业绩 7.5亿，同比+4.7%。利润率下降可能系国际化提前布局+演出内容投资业务的利润率偏低。(1)票务：核 心品类演唱会受制于供给(头部内容供给、场馆饱和等供给限制使得增速有所回落)，大麦平台GMV稳中 有升，需求侧仍然旺盛，抢票用户数同比+17%。现场服务构筑壁垒：为主办方提供一站式解决方案， 大麦演出FY26H1服务演出数量超2500场，场次同比+19%。(2)现场娱乐内容：收入同比+50%。参与主 办/投资多个场大型演唱会(如易烊千玺2025巡回)、音乐节、戏剧、脱口秀，向行业上游延伸。(3)出 海：海外艺人来华演出日益频繁、国内观众跨境观演需求提升，以东南亚和日韩为起点稳步推进中。同 时公司积极布局上游，中短期将邀约全球头部艺人赴亚洲演出。 影视内容业务仍在磨底 电影：FY26H1收入10.6亿，分部业绩0.95亿，半年报明确调整电影投资策 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.947 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a 33% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by strong growth in IP derivative products, particularly from Alibaba Fish [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 520 million yuan, up 54% year-on-year, due to the excellent performance of Alibaba Fish and a reduction in investment losses [1] - Adjusted EBITA was 550 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year, mainly due to a one-time financial asset impairment reversal of 160 million yuan in the same period last year; excluding this, adjusted EBITA increased by 14% [1] IP Derivative Business - The IP derivative business generated 1.16 billion yuan in FY26H1, a significant increase of 105.31% year-on-year; segment performance was 235 million yuan, up 44.17% [2] - The slower growth in segment performance compared to revenue was attributed to a one-time loss from the shutdown of Jinli Naju during the reporting period [2] - The rapid growth in IP licensing is driven by the continued success of multiple IP matrices, including Sanrio, Chiikawa, Pokémon, and Crayon Shin-chan; the company has also opened several offline themed pop-up and flagship stores in collaboration with upstream copyright holders and trendy toy brands [2] Ticketing and Live Entertainment - The revenue from the company's live content and technology business reached 1.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%; segment performance (after deducting costs and sales expenses) was 754 million yuan, up 4.72% [3] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by ticketing business, although growth was somewhat constrained by a slowdown in the supply of live content and limited venue resources; live entertainment content revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year due to the expansion into major concert projects and participation in music festivals, stand-up comedy, and theater [3] Film and Series Production - Revenue from the company's film content and technology business was 1.064 billion yuan, down 15.22% year-on-year; segment performance was 95 million yuan, down 22.76% [3] - Despite the overall pressure in the film market, the company maintained a prudent investment strategy, achieving excellent returns from the film "Chasing the Wind" [3] - The series production business saw a revenue increase of 693.44% to 484 million yuan, with segment performance improving from a loss of 10 million yuan to 38 million yuan, driven by increased investment in high-quality content [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the continuous deepening of cooperation in the IP derivative business and the ongoing high growth phase, the profit forecast has been raised, with expected net profits for FY26-FY28 at 915 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.374 billion yuan respectively [4] - The average PE of comparable companies for 2025 is 34X, up from a previous estimate of 26X; given the sustained high demand in the derivative business, a valuation of 36X for FY26 has been assigned, with a target price of 1.21 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading all-industry chain reality entertainment platform in China, engaging in content production, promotion, distribution, IP derivative licensing, and ticket management for entertainment activities [6][11]. - The IP industry is identified as a rapidly growing market with significant potential, with the Chinese IP market projected to grow from 91 billion yuan in 2020 to 126.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.5% [30][35]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of 78.91 billion yuan, 95.34 billion yuan, and 116.83 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 21%, and 23% [6][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates through three main segments: content production, ticketing and technology platforms, and IP derivatives, leveraging resources from the Alibaba ecosystem [11][12]. - It has participated in the production and promotion of over 300 films, with significant contributions to the Chinese box office [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 3.5 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan for FY23, FY24, and FY25, with year-on-year growth rates of 44% and 33% for FY24 and FY25 respectively [21]. - Adjusted EBITA for the same periods is projected at 310 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 810 million yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 61% for FY24 and FY25 [21]. IP Market Insights - The IP industry is characterized by a dual-sided extension model, with significant growth opportunities in both upstream and downstream operations [27][30]. - The report highlights that the average unit licensing fee can leverage over 25 times the gross merchandise value (GMV) of licensed products, indicating a lucrative market potential [33]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a robust integration of Alibaba's resources, enhancing its market position in ticketing and live entertainment [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market share in ticketing, with nearly 100% coverage of major concert projects [6][11].

Summary of Alibaba Pictures Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Pictures, recently rebranded as "Damai Entertainment" to emphasize its focus on high-quality content and live entertainment [2][6] - **Industry**: Live entertainment and IP licensing, with a strong emphasis on the growth of the IP industry and trendy toys [7][25] Key Points and Arguments Strategic Shift and Business Focus - The rebranding to "Damai Entertainment" reflects a strategic shift towards live entertainment and IP licensing, aligning with the company's efforts to inject quality assets and optimize its business structure [2][6] - The company has diversified its revenue structure into three main segments: films (40%), Damai (30%), and IP derivatives and innovative businesses (20%) [4] Financial Performance and Growth - In 2023, ticket revenue from live performances increased by 29% year-over-year, and by 150% compared to 2019, indicating a robust recovery in the post-pandemic market [2][5] - Alibaba Pictures is expected to maintain double-digit growth over the next three years, driven by strong demand for live events, particularly concerts and music festivals [10][11] - The company has returned to a growth trajectory, with net profit gradually turning positive and adjusted EBITDA steadily increasing, indicating improved operational conditions [9] IP Licensing and Market Position - Alibaba Fish, the leading IP licensing company in China and sixth globally, has seen a remarkable growth rate of 90%, benefiting from a shift towards ToC (business-to-consumer) operations [2][4][20] - The IP industry and trendy toy market are experiencing rapid growth, driven by young consumer demand, presenting favorable investment opportunities [7][8] Future Projections and Product Releases - The company is entering a new product release cycle in 2025, with several films set to launch, including sequels and new titles [3][15][16] - Revenue projections for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are estimated at 8 billion, 9.08 billion, and 10.56 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to rise correspondingly [24] Competitive Advantages and Market Strategy - Damai holds a leading position in the ticketing market, with a market share potentially reaching 57% to 70%, benefiting from its comprehensive service capabilities and strong relationships with artists and venues [12][13] - The company is actively expanding its upstream content planning and investment to enhance competitiveness, similar to successful models like Live Nation [14] Emerging Trends and Consumer Behavior - The demand for live performances is being driven by a significant increase in concert attendance, particularly among the post-2000 generation, which now represents over 40% of the audience [10] - The IP and trendy toy sectors are identified as key areas for growth, with companies like Alibaba Fish leveraging their IP resources to capture market share [22][25] Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on both B2B and B2C strategies, with Alibaba Fish exploring online channels and product offerings to enhance revenue streams [22] - The competitive landscape in the trendy toy market is evolving, with new entrants and established companies alike capitalizing on the growing consumer interest in IP-related products [25][26]

Summary of Alibaba Pictures Conference Call Company Overview - Alibaba Pictures has rebranded to Damai Entertainment, reflecting a shift in focus from traditional film to live entertainment and IP derivatives. Damai's business now accounts for over 30% of revenue and significantly contributes to profits, becoming a core growth engine [2][4][10]. Key Industry Insights - The live entertainment market is projected to grow, with national box office for commercial performances expected to increase by 15% in 2024, and concert growth reaching as high as 78%. Damai is poised to benefit from this trend, showing significant revenue growth [2][6]. - Demand for tickets on the Damai platform is high, with only 20% of users successfully purchasing tickets, indicating a supply-demand gap. Future growth will depend on expanding performance categories and increasing event density in tier-one and tier-two cities, as well as penetrating tier-three and tier-four markets [2][7][8]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba Pictures' total revenue is approximately 6.7 billion yuan, with Damai contributing over 2 billion yuan. The film-related segment's performance has declined significantly, contributing only 70 million yuan to profits, while Damai's profit contribution is 1.23 billion yuan [3][5]. - The company anticipates a net profit of around 870 million yuan for the fiscal year 2026, with potential for over 1 billion yuan in organic profit growth, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 50% [2][16]. Strategic Transformation - The strategic transformation involves moving from a film-centric model to one focused on new consumer scenarios, particularly live entertainment and IP derivatives, which now account for over half of the company's revenue and profits [2][10][12]. - The IP derivatives business, particularly through Alibaba's IP platform, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue increase of 90% for the fiscal year 2025, driven by new IP licensing agreements and a shift towards direct-to-consumer (To C) business [11][23]. Market Outlook - The live performance market is expected to continue expanding, with a strong recovery and stable growth trajectory. High ticket prices indicate a strong consumer demand for self-indulgent experiences [21][22]. - The IP licensing market in China is robust, with Alibaba's IP platform, Aliyu, ranking significantly in global licensing agent retail sales, indicating a strong competitive position [24][25]. Future Strategies - Alibaba Pictures plans to adopt a more cautious investment strategy in film production, focusing on project profitability and optimizing its smart ticketing system. The company aims to expand its presence in Southeast Asia [29][30]. - The company is also leveraging its partnership with Youku to enhance content production and amplify IP value through shared resources and marketing strategies [30]. Conclusion - Alibaba Pictures' rebranding to Damai Entertainment signifies a strategic pivot towards live entertainment and IP derivatives, with strong growth potential in these areas. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer demand, with a focus on sustainable profitability and strategic partnerships [2][10][12].