格隆汇12月29日｜西部证券发表研究报告指，大麦娱乐卡位演出与IP衍生双高景气赛道，看好现场娱乐 高景气的持续性。需求端，悦己与社会需求共振，多次观演比例提升。另外，票务业务贡献稳健基本 盘，而阿里鱼亦可望提供业绩弹性，充分受益于线下娱乐消费的持续复苏与结构升级。该行预计大麦娱 乐2026至28财年的经调整纯利分别为10.6亿、13.54亿及15.77亿元，首予公司"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating for Damai Entertainment (01060) due to high growth in its IP business and steady expansion in its performance business, indicating strong long-term value in the live entertainment sector [1] Performance Summary - For FY26H1 (ending September 30, 2025), the company reported revenue of 4.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million, up 54% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was 550 million, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth after excluding a 160 million financial asset impairment reversal from FY25H1 [2] IP Business Performance - Revenue from IP derivative business doubled year-on-year, with ToB licensing business showing significant growth and ToC rapidly starting [3] - FY26H1 revenue for IP business reached 1.16 billion, a 105% increase, with segment performance (gross profit minus allocated sales expenses) at 230 million, up 44% [3] - Profit margin decline was influenced by a one-time impact from the closure of Jinli Naku, while core Alibaba Fish business revenue growth exceeded 100% with profits nearly doubling [3] - The company is expanding its team and partnerships in the ToB licensing sector, with notable IPs like Sanrio, Gigi Kawa, and Pokémon [3] - Retail brand operations are being developed with multiple brand flagship stores opened, and plans for more experiential formats like restaurants and indoor parks [3] Performance Business Overview - Core domestic concert categories are steadily increasing, with expansion into international markets and upstream investments [3] - FY26H1 revenue from performances was 1.34 billion, a 14.5% increase, with segment performance at 750 million, up 4.7% [3] - The decline in profit margin may be due to early internationalization efforts and lower margins in performance content investments [3] - Ticketing for core concert categories faced supply constraints, but overall demand remains strong, with a 17% increase in ticket buyers [3] - The company provided services for over 2,500 performances in FY26H1, a 19% year-on-year increase [3] - Revenue from live entertainment content grew by 50%, with participation in major concerts and events [3] - The company is actively pursuing international opportunities, with plans to invite top global artists to perform in Asia [3] Film and Television Content Business - The film segment reported revenue of 1.06 billion in FY26H1, with segment performance at 95 million; the company is adjusting its investment strategy to focus on lower-risk, high-quality films [4] - Revenue from series production was 480 million, with a profit of 40 million [4] Management Efficiency - Management efficiency has improved, with a notable reduction in investment risks from the previous year [5] - Management expense ratio decreased to 16.5% in FY26H1, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Damai Entertainment for the fiscal year 2025/26 shows significant growth, driven by diversified business strategies and the ongoing "Entertainment + AI" initiative, which enhances collaboration across various sectors and expands growth opportunities [1][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, Damai Entertainment reported total revenue of approximately 4.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached about 520 million yuan, reflecting a 54% year-on-year growth [1]. Group 2: Core Business Growth - The performance of the live entertainment and technology sectors has become a key growth driver, with revenue from this segment reaching 1.339 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year [2]. - The number of users for the Damai platform has surpassed 300 million, solidifying its position in the global live entertainment industry [3]. Group 3: Content and IP Development - The IP derivative business, centered around Aliyu, saw revenue increase by 105% to approximately 1.16 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5]. - The company has established a robust content ecosystem through various content brands, achieving over 50% year-on-year growth in live entertainment content revenue [4]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The Damai APP has been upgraded to create a comprehensive entertainment consumption service system driven by AI technology, integrating various entertainment categories and enhancing user experience [3]. - The company has implemented advanced technologies in film production, including AI-driven services for script evaluation and box office forecasting, contributing to a more efficient content production process [8]. Group 5: International Expansion - Damai Entertainment is pursuing an international strategy, focusing on Southeast Asia and Japan/Korea as initial markets to provide a one-stop ticketing and viewing service platform globally [9][10]. - The launch of the new global performance service platform "Damai International" aims to leverage the company's ticketing experience and technology to tap into the cross-border entertainment consumption market [10].

Core Insights - The company reported FY1H26 results that met market expectations, with revenue of 4.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 520 million yuan, up 54.7% [1] - The company is focusing on international expansion, starting with Southeast Asia and Japan/Korea, and has launched "Damai International (MAISEAT)" to provide a one-stop ticketing and event service platform [1] - IP derivative income saw significant growth, increasing by 105% to 1.16 billion yuan, while the film business experienced a decline of 15.2% [2] Financial Performance - FY1H26 revenue reached 4.047 billion yuan, with a net profit of 520 million yuan, aligning with the forecast of no less than 500 million yuan [1] - Non-IFRS EBITA was 550 million yuan, down 14.4%, but if excluding last year's non-recurring gains, it showed a comparable increase of 14% [1] - The company’s sales and management expenses totaled 1 billion yuan, an increase of 8% [2] Business Development - The live entertainment segment generated revenue of 1.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with a 19% increase in large event performances [1] - The company plans to expand its IP and merchandise channels, targeting new areas such as dining and small theme parks [2] - The asset structure has been optimized, leading to a significant reduction in investment losses and impairments [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to investments in new business directions, the company has lowered its FY26/27 Non-IFRS net profit forecasts by 23% and 24% to 916 million yuan and 1.018 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current price corresponds to 26.8 times FY27 Non-IFRS P/E, with a target price adjustment of 13% down to 1.15 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 10.6% from the current price [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.947 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a 33% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by strong growth in IP derivative products, particularly from Alibaba Fish [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 520 million yuan, up 54% year-on-year, due to the excellent performance of Alibaba Fish and a reduction in investment losses [1] - Adjusted EBITA was 550 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year, mainly due to a one-time financial asset impairment reversal of 160 million yuan in the same period last year; excluding this, adjusted EBITA increased by 14% [1] IP Derivative Business - The IP derivative business generated 1.16 billion yuan in FY26H1, a significant increase of 105.31% year-on-year; segment performance was 235 million yuan, up 44.17% [2] - The slower growth in segment performance compared to revenue was attributed to a one-time loss from the shutdown of Jinli Naju during the reporting period [2] - The rapid growth in IP licensing is driven by the continued success of multiple IP matrices, including Sanrio, Chiikawa, Pokémon, and Crayon Shin-chan; the company has also opened several offline themed pop-up and flagship stores in collaboration with upstream copyright holders and trendy toy brands [2] Ticketing and Live Entertainment - The revenue from the company's live content and technology business reached 1.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%; segment performance (after deducting costs and sales expenses) was 754 million yuan, up 4.72% [3] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by ticketing business, although growth was somewhat constrained by a slowdown in the supply of live content and limited venue resources; live entertainment content revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year due to the expansion into major concert projects and participation in music festivals, stand-up comedy, and theater [3] Film and Series Production - Revenue from the company's film content and technology business was 1.064 billion yuan, down 15.22% year-on-year; segment performance was 95 million yuan, down 22.76% [3] - Despite the overall pressure in the film market, the company maintained a prudent investment strategy, achieving excellent returns from the film "Chasing the Wind" [3] - The series production business saw a revenue increase of 693.44% to 484 million yuan, with segment performance improving from a loss of 10 million yuan to 38 million yuan, driven by increased investment in high-quality content [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the continuous deepening of cooperation in the IP derivative business and the ongoing high growth phase, the profit forecast has been raised, with expected net profits for FY26-FY28 at 915 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.374 billion yuan respectively [4] - The average PE of comparable companies for 2025 is 34X, up from a previous estimate of 26X; given the sustained high demand in the derivative business, a valuation of 36X for FY26 has been assigned, with a target price of 1.21 HKD [4]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained growth and profitability of Damai Entertainment, with total revenue reaching approximately 4.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of about 520 million yuan, up 54% [1] Group 1: Business Diversification and Growth Engines - Damai Entertainment's diversified business model has become a new growth engine, enhancing core profitability. The performance of various business lines shows strong growth, with revenue from performance content and technology reaching 1.339 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year [2] - The IP derivative business has seen remarkable growth, achieving revenue of 1.16 billion yuan, a 105% increase year-on-year, with the core business Aliyu's revenue more than doubling [2][3] - The company has effectively countered the sluggish film market by maintaining high-quality output in film and drama content while leveraging technology to stabilize its film technology and investment production platform [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Upgrades and Market Position - The newly upgraded Damai APP aims to become a super application, benefiting from the booming offline entertainment sector, which enhances both short-term resilience and long-term growth potential [5] - The upgraded app connects over 40 subcategories, covering more than 12,000 cinemas, 20,000 venues, and 100,000 popular attractions, expanding its user base to 300 million and reinforcing its leading position in the global industry [5][6] - The launch of the global performance service platform "Damai International" marks a significant step in the company's international strategy, providing ticketing and performance services for various events worldwide [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The future development path of Damai Entertainment is becoming clearer, focusing on content IP as a core driver, business innovation, and user value, while expanding overseas markets and enhancing the scale of IP derivatives [7] - The capital market sentiment is positive, with institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expressing optimism about Damai Entertainment's value potential, indicating a potential upward space for the stock price [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance released a report on the execution of fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, outlining six key areas of focus for future fiscal policy implementation [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, including actions to boost consumer spending through targeted financial subsidies for personal loans in key sectors [3]. - Support for employment and foreign trade is prioritized, with measures to promote job creation and assist businesses in maintaining operations and expanding markets [4]. - The report highlights the importance of fostering new growth drivers by advancing core technologies and promoting emerging industries, while ensuring equal treatment for all business entities [4]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, with notable improvements in sectors such as Macau gaming and luxury goods, driven by wealth effects and supply optimization [6]. - The luxury market is experiencing growth, with companies like LVMH and Hermès reporting improved sales in China, indicating a positive trend in consumer sentiment [6]. - New consumption sectors, particularly in the tea beverage industry, are expected to see significant profit growth, with leading brands benefiting from strong market positions [8]. Group 3: Policy Support for Consumption - The government is taking steps to enhance service consumption by relaxing entry barriers and removing unreasonable restrictions, which is expected to boost consumer willingness to spend [7]. - Recent policy changes in the duty-free sector aim to improve shopping experiences and increase consumer engagement in duty-free shopping [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip (TCOM.US) shares rose by 2.34% to $71.72 in pre-market trading following the announcement of a long-term strategic partnership with Live Nation Asia to integrate travel and live music experiences in key Asian markets [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's closing price on October 10 was $70.08, with a decrease of 1.45% [1]. - The pre-market price on October 13 reached $71.72, reflecting an increase of $1.64 [1]. - The stock's highest price recorded was $74.765, while the lowest was $69.900 [1]. - The average price was $71.680, with a market capitalization of $45.805 billion [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.31, with a static P/E ratio of 20.18 [1]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 2.213 [1]. - The dividend yield is 0.430%, with a trailing dividend of $0.304 [1]. Group 3: Trading Activity - The trading volume was 4.2143 million shares, with a turnover rate of 0.72% [1]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $78.650 and a low of $51.350 [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally optimistic sentiment in the software industry, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence products, despite a prevailing pessimism among investors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI product improvements are expected to contribute to sustained revenue growth, with core business fundamentals stabilizing and key metrics like net expansion rate and CRPO showing improvement [1][2]. - There is a notable divergence in sentiment within the software industry, with optimism in infrastructure and pessimism in application layers, suggesting a potential shift in outlook as AI adoption increases [2]. - Private credit is emerging as a significant funding source for AI infrastructure, with a market size of approximately $1.5 trillion and expected double-digit growth in direct lending by 2030 [8]. Summary by Sections Software Industry Highlights - Companies are demonstrating tangible AI product improvements, with expectations for continued momentum in the coming quarters [2]. - Major players like Microsoft and HubSpot are exploring the integration of traditional SaaS with AI capabilities, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between humans and AI agents [3]. Vertical Software Developments - CEOs and CFOs believe that scaled vertical software exhibits resilience, with complex entry barriers in niche markets [4]. - Leading vertical software vendors are leveraging AI and large language models to enhance platform stickiness and optimize industry-specific processes [4][5]. Business Services Trends - General AI is significantly enhancing the functionality of data company products, with examples like CoStar improving real estate search capabilities [6]. - Companies are utilizing AI to improve internal efficiencies, as seen with KinderCare automating call center operations and NCR optimizing scheduling [6]. Data Center Market Insights - GenAI is driving increased demand for data centers, with Iron Mountain projecting a 30% revenue growth in the second half of 2025 and over 25% growth in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - The data center market is expected to continue expanding, with strong demand observed in key regions [14]. Private Credit Market Role - The private credit market is becoming increasingly important for funding AI infrastructure, with significant growth anticipated [8]. Entertainment Industry Trends - The live entertainment sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for high-end experiences, with Live Nation reporting increased attendance and spending [18][19]. Payment and Fintech Dynamics - The payment and fintech sectors are stable, with Visa and Mastercard noting consistent consumer spending growth [20]. - There is a growing focus on AI in payment decision-making, with companies like Affirm and PayPal investing in consumer-friendly applications [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of Alibaba Pictures into Damai Entertainment, focusing on the expansion of its business into the realm of live entertainment, which includes concerts, theater, and various cultural events, catering to the evolving consumption habits of younger generations [1][3][30]. Summary by Sections Company Transformation - Alibaba Pictures announced its rebranding to Damai Entertainment, marking a strategic shift towards a diversified reality entertainment business model that includes movies, performances, and commercial IP derivatives [1][2]. - Over the past 11 years, Damai has expanded from a single film business to a comprehensive entertainment platform, aligning with the trend of experiential and emotional consumption among younger consumers [1][8]. Market Growth - The global live entertainment market is projected to grow from $202.9 billion in 2025 to $270.29 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%, indicating the strengthening position of live entertainment in cultural consumption [3]. - In China, the live entertainment market is rapidly recovering, with large concert ticket sales expected to exceed 26 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 78.1%, and audience numbers surpassing 29 million, up 45% [3][6]. Business Performance - Damai's concert ticket sales have shown significant growth, with a 78.1% increase in ticket revenue and an 84.4% rise in concerts with over 10,000 attendees [6][8]. - The company has produced over 300 films and organized 2.4 million performances since its establishment, providing extensive entertainment content to billions of users [8][9]. Competitive Position - Damai's performance in the live entertainment sector is noted to be more robust compared to global competitors like Live Nation, with a projected revenue of 2.057 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, showcasing its strong growth trajectory [10][11]. - The company has developed a comprehensive ecosystem with six content brands covering various entertainment genres, enhancing its resilience and market presence [11][15]. User Engagement and Technology - The newly launched Damai app integrates over 40 entertainment categories, enhancing user experience by providing personalized recommendations through AI technology [18][28]. - The app aims to simplify the ticket purchasing process and improve the overall experience for users, reflecting a shift towards more immersive and diverse entertainment options [28][30]. Future Vision - Damai Entertainment's ultimate goal is to create memorable experiences for users, redefining connections between people and content, and positioning itself as a leader in the evolving landscape of live entertainment [30][33].