Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened flat and trended lower today, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures showed weak rebound. The market sentiment was poor. The high - level supply and high inventory situation restricted the upward movement of urea prices. Although there was a chance of rebound later, the loose market pattern had not reversed, and the market lacked driving forces [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened flat and trended lower, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to fall, and the futures rebounded weakly. The market sentiment was poor. The daily urea production was expected to remain at a high level, suppressing the urea price. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories, but the growth rate slowed down. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was high. The inventory continued to increase, which restricted the upward movement of urea prices. There was a chance of rebound later, with attention paid to the pressure around 1730 yuan/ton, but the loose pattern had not reversed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1681 yuan/ton, closed at 1670 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume was 286,823 lots (+5,335 lots). Among the top 20 institutional positions, long positions increased by 3,015 lots, and short positions increased by 2,691 lots. On September 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,188, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price continued to decline. The ex - factory transaction price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei quoted 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, but these high - priced factories mainly fulfilled export orders [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply Data**: On September 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.82% [9]. - **Downstream Data**: From September 12 to September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [13].