1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term methanol market fundamentals are weak. After the previous port unloading issue was resolved, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has resurfaced. Inland, after the restart of Jiutai and the increase in freight rates, the inland demand is met by the port, leading to inventory accumulation and price cuts. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics decreases, and factories want to reduce inventory through price cuts. Attention should be paid to the turning points in the inland market, such as concentrated bearish sentiment or the start of inventory reduction. The port is concerned about MTO profits due to poor downstream performance, but MTO's own profits are still acceptable, and Fude may return before the festival. The main negative factor is the upcoming port inventory accumulation, which may last until mid - January, reaching a level of 160. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract when the price is between 2050 - 2100 [3]. - The near - term trading logic is the enhanced willingness to hold goods due to the shutdown of Iranian plants. The long - term trading expectation is that the key point for methanol is how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract will be stronger than the 2601 contract, with the 1 - 5 spread in a reverse arbitrage situation, and the process is affected by macro sentiment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term market fundamentals are weak. Port inventory accumulation is expected, and inland inventory is also increasing with price cuts. Attention should be paid to inland turning points and port MTO profit concerns. The main negative is port inventory accumulation, but there are still positive factors in the future, such as Fude's restart, a sharp decrease in Iranian imports, and a reduction in non - Iranian imports, which may lead to port inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at 2050 - 2100 [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 01 base spread remained stable [12]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread was in a positive arbitrage situation [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term operating range of methanol 2601 is 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the position of selling put options on methanol 2601 and sell call options at the same time [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the inland area are presented, including the inventory of the northwest region, southern and northern lines, and the national factory - level inventory, as well as the weekly pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][25][28]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the port area are presented, including the weekly inventory of Chinese ports, the inventory of different provinces, and the inventory of various warehouses in Jiangsu. In addition, data on the shipping volume and arrival volume of methanol are also provided [36][44][50]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including using futures, put options, and call options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [61]. - **Positive Information**: The 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the goods will be available after the post - festival device approval is completed [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [63]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The fundamental support is average. Although the production area factories have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they still intend to maintain low inventory and mainly reduce prices to sell goods in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling. The market in the sales area is also declining [65]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, after the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will shrink in the future, and the upward momentum of methanol in the northwest region will be limited. In the sales area, the logic of demand growth is clear. Yangmei Hydrocarbon plans to restart at the beginning of December, and Lianhong's new olefin project is expected to start in early December. After the arbitrage space between the port and Henan to northern Shandong is closed, the local supply in the sales area will be limited, and the supply - demand tight situation will be more prominent. The price support in the southern sales area is strong and is expected to continue to be stronger than that in the northern production area [66]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuated, mainly because of the increase in Iranian shipments [68]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Price Tracking - The prices of upstream coal (such as Ordos pit - mouth coal price and Qinhuangdao port coal price) and downstream methanol (such as methanol in Lunan and Taicang markets) are tracked. In addition, data on the number of warehouse receipts and methanol valuation are also provided [71][72][81]. 3.4.2 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei) are tracked, as well as the profits of downstream products such as MTO [83][104]. 3.4.3 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Production and Output Tracking - The weekly operating rates and production of methanol from different raw materials and different regions are tracked, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO, traditional downstream products, and some chemical products [91][100][108]. 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes of methanol from different countries (such as Malaysia and Venezuela) and the shipping volume of Iranian methanol are tracked. In addition, data on the external structure of methanol, import profits, and price differences are also provided [128]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - The weekly capacity utilization rate, output, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants overseas are tracked [131][132]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet for methanol from January 2025 to May 2026 is presented, including the supply (imports, olefin production, etc.), demand (olefin consumption, acetic acid consumption, etc.), and inventory changes in the port area [135].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory is rapidly decreasing due to delayed unloading. The overall arrival pressure in December remains high, but the unloading pressure is postponed. The impact of Iranian winter maintenance on future arrivals needs time to be reflected, and the loading volume from Iran should be continuously monitored. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude MTO is implemented. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices is dragging down the coal chemical industry. In the inland area, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The resumption of Yangmei MTO and the low - load operation of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong are boosting inland demand [3] - For trading strategies, there is no recommendation for single - sided trading. For the inter - period strategy, the spread between MA2605 - MA2609 should be widened when it is low. For the inter - variety strategy, the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 should be narrowed when it is high [3] Summaries According to the Catalog 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The content includes figures showing the methanol basis in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The content presents figures related to the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [32][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - The content includes figures of price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Methanol continues its downward trend. The 01 contract may continue to decline as the fundamentals offer no support, and the pressure on ports is hard to relieve due to increased shipments from Iran. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions, and conduct 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is suggested to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. - The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Methanol is in a downward trend. The 01 contract's fundamentals lack support. Although there was a rebound in the market due to industry protests against low prices, inland methanol enterprises still have profits. The increased shipments from Iran have made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Despite the relatively strong thermal coal prices, they cannot provide cost support for Henan methanol. The higher - than - usual temperature in Iran may delay gas restrictions until mid - November. The November shipments have exceeded expectations, and port inventories are likely to remain high. Later, the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2036, with the futures price dropping significantly and the 01 basis strengthening by 10 [11]. - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, as the shipments from Iran continued to accelerate, the market no longer expects early gas restrictions this year, and the 1 - 5 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - There are records of the implementation status of previous strategies, including the holding of short - put, short - call, 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategies, as well as the stop - profit of long positions [19]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - There are various charts showing the inventory situation of methanol ports, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports, the inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different regions, and the inventory situation of warehouses in Jiangsu Province [35]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including using futures and options for hedging [61]. - **Positive Information**: The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong is expected to start production as early as the end of November [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran's shipments were 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, and 0.69 million tons in November [63]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The fundamentals offer limited support. Although producers in the production areas have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics and transportation, they still intend to maintain low inventories and mainly sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand has decreased, and some traders are short - selling, causing the market in the sales areas to decline synchronously [65]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Inland Market**: In the second half of the week, the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in Inner Mongolia boosted market sentiment. As the methanol prices in the production areas have reached the bottom, traders are cautious about short - selling, and some buyers have entered the market for procurement, leading to a halt in the decline and a stabilization in the inland market [66]. - **Port Market**: Under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak downward trend next week [66]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking - There are various price charts showing the prices of coal, methanol in different markets, and related products over different time periods [77][78][82]. 4.2 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, coke oven gas) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Shandong, etc.) [89][90][93]. 4.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly operating rates of different methanol production methods (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal combined - alcohol, natural gas, etc.) and downstream products (MTO, MTBE, acetic acid, etc.) [96][99][100]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the import volumes of methanol from different countries (Malaysia, Venezuela, Iran), the external market structure of methanol, and the import profits of Iranian methanol [129][130]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and the weekly production volumes of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol [133][134][136]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, and inventory changes [140]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in domestic methanol plants, there were both maintenance and restarts in the Northwest. Some plants in Shandong and Inner Mongolia restarted, while some plants in East China were shut down for maintenance. Some plants in Central China restarted but have not yet produced products [141]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased their loads. The second - phase MTO of Lianhong is planned to be completed earlier than expected and has started stockpiling. Iran maintains high shipments [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port is still weak, with port inventory rising to a high level again. The inventory in Jiangsu is rebounding rapidly, and the short - term arrival pressure is still high. It remains to be seen whether the expected reduction in shipments will be realized. Iran will enter the winter maintenance period from late November to December, and the actual implementation progress needs attention [2] - After mainstream CTO manufacturers made low - price purchases, the inventory of inland factories decreased, and the pending orders increased. However, Shandong MTO is in the maintenance period, and the Shandong price performance should be monitored. The window for port - to - inland return is on the verge of opening [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][8][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][33] III. Methanol Production & Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol is 1,543,600 tons (+56,500 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory at 836,600 tons (+45,100 tons), Zhejiang port inventory at 219,800 tons (+19,800 tons), and Guangdong port inventory at 290,000 tons (-7,000 tons). The MTO/P operating rate (including integrated) is 89.81% (-0.38%). The inland factory sample inventory and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) are also presented [2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Guangdong and East China (-180) [2][38] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of Shandong formaldehyde, the production profit of Jiangsu acetic acid, the production profit of Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and the production profit of Henan dimethyl ether [54][57] Strategy - Unilateral: None [4] - Inter - period: Short MA2601 and long MA2605, long MA2605 and short MA2609, butterfly spread [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the methanol market will continue its downward trend due to persistent high - inventory pressures. The supply will remain relatively abundant, with domestic coal - to - methanol production maintaining high profitability and imports expected to reach over 140 million tons. Meanwhile, demand growth is limited, with no significant increase in MTO demand and traditional demand showing no bright spots under a mediocre macro - economic background [4][5][95]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Foreword Summary 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In November, the peak coal - using season for summer ends, coal prices are expected to decline, but the decline is limited due to downstream restocking. Coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will continue to hit new highs. Iranian installations are stable, and imports in November are estimated to reach 145 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. Overall demand in November has no significant increase, and traditional demand has no bright spots in a mediocre macro - environment [4][95]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Trading**: The methanol price will continue to decline due to high - inventory pressure, with a lower limit of 2050 yuan/ton [5][6][95]. - **Arbitrage**: For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the medium - to - long term as imports recover and MTO has negative feedback. For cross - variety arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to repair the PP - 3MA spread in the medium - to - long term [9][95]. II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In October 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices were volatile and weak. Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US economy, the Fed's first interest - rate cut, and eased tariff conflicts had some support for domestic commodities. However, after the "anti - involution" policy influence faded, methanol futures returned to fundamentals, and with record - high port inventories, the price continued to decline. Internationally, the methanol price was also weak due to factors like high US supply and weak overall demand [10][11][27]. 2. Supply Analysis - **New Capacity in 2024**: China's methanol production capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output expected to reach 75 million tons. The actual new production capacity in 2024 was only 3 million tons, and new projects involved various production processes, with a significant proportion of coke - oven gas - to - methanol projects [30]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: The planned new production capacity is 10.1 million tons, but the actual new production capacity for external sales is only 1.9 million tons due to downstream - supporting facilities. It is expected that the production capacity will increase by about 3% year - on - year, and the total output will reach 85 million tons [37]. - **Coal Price and Profit in October**: Coal prices first rose and then fell in October, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected that coal - to - methanol profits will remain high in November [39]. - **Operating Rate in October**: The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, with the overall domestic methanol operating rate at 85.65% at the end of October, up 5% from the previous month and 1% from the same period last year. The coal - single - alcohol operating rate reached 94.48%, up 6% from the previous month [42]. - **Coal Price and Supply in November**: Coal prices are expected to be weak but with limited decline in November due to factors such as increased coal production in major producing areas, slow destocking of power - plant inventories, and reduced coal imports. Domestic methanol supply will remain abundant [48]. - **Enterprise Inventory in November**: As maintenance devices return in November, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to gradually accumulate [51]. 3. November Imports Expected to Exceed 1.4 Million Tons - **January - October Imports**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 9.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. It is estimated that imports in October were 1.45 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [55]. - **Foreign New Capacity**: In 2024, international new production capacity slowed down, mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, Iran is expected to add 1.65 million tons/year and 1.65 million tons/year of methanol production capacity, and other countries are also exploring coal - to - methanol development [61][64]. - **Iranian Installations and Imports in November**: Some Iranian installations are shut down, with daily production dropping from 40,000 tons to around 35,000 tons. Iranian shipments in October were 920,000 tons, and imports in November are expected to be 1.45 million tons [66]. - **Port Inventory and MTO**: In October, Iranian shipments accelerated, imports rebounded, and MTO recovered, but port destocking was slow. As of the end of October, the total port inventory was 1.51 million tons, and the available tradable port inventory was 880,000 tons [70][72]. 4. Limited Demand Growth in November and Little Macro - level Change - **Macroeconomic Situation**: In October, trade and geopolitical conflicts interfered with the domestic macro - economy. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and demand [75]. - **MTO New Installations in November**: There are no new MTO installations expected to be put into production in November. The planned 1.45 - million - ton MTO installations in the second half of 2025 are expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter [80]. - **MTO Installation Elimination Pressure**: Some MTO installations, such as those of Changzhou Fude and Ningbo Fude, face elimination pressure due to long - term losses. From an industrial - structure perspective, Sierbang and Xingxing are most likely to exit or operate at low loads [84]. - **Traditional Downstream Demand in November**: The fundamentals of traditional methanol downstream sectors are diverse. The demand for formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., is weak, with low operating rates. The fundamentals of acetic acid, MTBE, etc., remain resilient, but overall, traditional downstream demand is difficult to increase in November [90][93]. III. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In November, the coal - to - methanol supply will remain abundant, with coal prices expected to decline but with limited decline. Imports are estimated to reach 1.45 million tons, and port inventories will be slowly destocked. Overall demand has no significant increase, and traditional demand has no bright spots [95]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Trading**: The methanol price will continue to decline, with a lower limit of 2050 yuan/ton [95][97]. - **Arbitrage**: For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the medium - to - long - term. For cross - variety arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to repair the PP - 3MA spread in the medium - to - long - term [95].