Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250616:中东局势升级,甲醇短期或仍有反弹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/6/13 | 2025/6/12 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) 2.97% | | | | MA01 太色 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 2423.00 2482.50 2197.50 | 2353.00 2375.00 2175.00 | 70.00 107.50 22.50 | 4.53% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2352.00 | 2294.00 | 58.00 | 2.53% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2389.00 | 2290.00 | 99.00 | 4.32% | | | | | | | | | 1.03% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2410.00 | 2325.00 | 85.00 | 3.66% | | 及基差 | ...