Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Bullish" [2] Core View - Due to the severe escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the weekend, international crude oil prices continued to rise significantly. Although the domestic methanol port inventory remains at 1446700 tons, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down with uncertain resumption times. Under the geopolitical conflict, the resumption of multiple methanol plants in Iran was delayed, so the short - term methanol price will continue to show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Directory Market Review - On the night of Monday, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 126 yuan to 2429 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 121 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 816 lots to 542000 lots, and short positions decreased by 53499 lots to 654000 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1446700 tons, an increase of 14500 tons compared to the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 15000 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 535300 tons, an increase of 195000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 57.32% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of methanol enterprises in the northwest are 56300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 205800 tons, a decrease of 109300 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The olefin operating rate is 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 82.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - **Import**: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1734000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 604400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14405400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - **Oil Price**: The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran continues. The geopolitical tension has increased the risk of supply interruption, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 4.21 US dollars/barrel to 71.23 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures changed to the 05 contract, rising 4.87 US dollars/barrel to 77.74 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 6.68%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 26.7 to 511 yuan/barrel, and rose 55.9 to 566.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The severe escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the weekend led to a significant rise in international crude oil prices. The domestic methanol port inventory remains at 1446700 tons, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down with uncertain resumption times. Under the geopolitical conflict, the resumption of multiple methanol plants in Iran was delayed, so the short - term methanol price will continue to show a strong trend [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions, with the risk lying in the development of geopolitical events [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price is oscillating with a bullish bias, but the later stage still needs to focus on the Middle East geopolitical situation and the digestion of port inventories [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 18 yuan to 2287 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose 43 yuan to 2243 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 44,831 lots to 482,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,295 lots to 555,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.61% [2] - **Demand**: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 56,300 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons month - on - month. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.75%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 78.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 18.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 11%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [2] - **Import**: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - **Oil Price**: The market is concerned about the prospects of the US - Iran talks. The Iranian side hopes to reach a fair agreement with the US in the shortest possible time, alleviating concerns, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.68 US dollars/barrel to 65.63 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.72 US dollars/barrel to 70.77 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 25.3 to 489.9 yuan/barrel, and fell 4.4 to 485.5 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unstable, and the international crude oil is oscillating sharply at a high level. The methanol port inventory is still at a high level of over 1.4 million tons in the same period. It is expected that the total methanol import volume in March may drop to between 600,000 - 650,000 tons. The restart expectation of Iranian plants and the inventory - clearing demand in production areas continue to suppress the price [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions or partially take profits [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, with support mainly coming from the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow macro - level, geopolitical, and crude oil guidance [8][34][35] - In the future, methanol may show a moderately strong oscillation. Consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - In the week before the Spring Festival, affected by the overall decline of commodities, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,193 yuan/ton, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week [5][13] - In the spot market, the coastal market's trading atmosphere weakened as the Spring Festival approached, with prices fluctuating slightly. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,170 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton. In the inland market, pre - holiday inventory clearance was successful, and some local markets showed signs of recovery. The price in Ordos North ranged from 1,805 - 1,873 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,180 - 2,190 yuan/ton [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In the week before the Spring Festival, China's methanol production slightly declined to 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a 0.01% decrease [14] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 38.95%, a 0.75 - percentage - point increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.38%, a decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased; the chloride capacity utilization rate increased to 78.52%; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 18.51% [18][20] - **Inventory**: As of February 11, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.03 tons, a 7.61% decrease; the order backlog was 31.50 tons, a 9.75% increase. The port sample inventory was 143.22 tons, a 1.50% increase [21][24] - **Profit**: In the week of 20260206 - 0212, the theoretical profit of domestic sample methanol production processes improved. Coal - based production losses narrowed, coke - oven gas - based production profits increased, and natural - gas - based production profits remained stable [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: During the Spring Festival, it is expected that more domestic methanol plants will resume production than undergo maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.072 billion tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 92.75%, a slight increase in production [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase if there are no unexpected device failures; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline; and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to change little [32][33] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 43.43 tons during the Spring Festival, an increase. After the holiday, the inventory will gradually decrease. The port methanol inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly after the Spring Festival, with a focus on the unloading speed of foreign vessels in Zhejiang and ship departures during the holiday [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and potential future drivers lie in possible supply reductions, such as Iran's gas restriction expectations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, MA01 was 2274 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan or 2.90% from October 11; MA05 was 2300 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 2.29%; MA09 was 2259 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan or 2.55% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.11%; in Guangdong, 2267.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.09%; in Shaanxi, 2080 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.12%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2200 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, 2280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 3.39%; in Inner Mongolia, 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buzhou Kes Q5500 was 525 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.45%; Datong Q5500 was 602.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.69%; Yulin Q6000 was 595 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.28% [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Situations - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 318.5 yuan/ton, with no change; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Product Profits**: Northwest MTO profit was - 195.4 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 18.14%; East China MTO profit was - 861.07 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan or 4.28%; acetic acid profit was 585 yuan/ton, up 23.13 yuan or 4.12%; MTBE profit was 530.2 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 3.64%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3. Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2345 yuan/ton, closing at 2274 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1237490 lots and open interest of 1051360, showing reduced volume and increased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese companies to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships. As of now, 11 ships are sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, with intensified conflicts between Israel and Iran and no short - term signs of easing, has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, breaking through the previous high pressure level. Considering that Iran is the main importer of methanol in China, methanol still has short - term rebound momentum. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: MA01 in Shandong increased by 70 yuan/ton (4.53%), MA05 increased by 58 yuan/ton (2.53%), and MA09 increased by 99 yuan/ton (4.32%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Guangdong, it increased by 85 yuan/ton (3.66%); in Shaanxi, it increased by 70 yuan/ton (3.58%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it increased by 60 yuan/ton (2.74%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (4.61%); there was no change in Hubei [1]. - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 37.5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Hohhot and Chongqing, there were no changes [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: coal - to - methanol in Northwest MTO remained unchanged at 359.7 yuan/ton; coal - to - methanol in MTO in the East decreased by 159.6 yuan/ton (- 26.60%); natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 570 yuan/ton; MTO in East China decreased by 191.5 yuan/ton (- 26.56%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: acetic acid decreased by 25 yuan/ton (- 5.85%); MTBE increased by 118.2 yuan/ton (50.22%); formaldehyde and another product remained unchanged [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: On June 16, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2282 yuan/ton, closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,689,953 lots and an open interest of 761,314 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA rose significantly in the range and then declined, with the night - session closing at 2373. Due to the short - term rebound momentum of methanol and the high uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].