Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and potential future drivers lie in possible supply reductions, such as Iran's gas restriction expectations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, MA01 was 2274 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan or 2.90% from October 11; MA05 was 2300 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 2.29%; MA09 was 2259 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan or 2.55% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.11%; in Guangdong, 2267.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.09%; in Shaanxi, 2080 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.12%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2200 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, 2280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 3.39%; in Inner Mongolia, 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buzhou Kes Q5500 was 525 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.45%; Datong Q5500 was 602.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.69%; Yulin Q6000 was 595 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.28% [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Situations - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 318.5 yuan/ton, with no change; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Product Profits**: Northwest MTO profit was - 195.4 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 18.14%; East China MTO profit was - 861.07 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan or 4.28%; acetic acid profit was 585 yuan/ton, up 23.13 yuan or 4.12%; MTBE profit was 530.2 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 3.64%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3. Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2345 yuan/ton, closing at 2274 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1237490 lots and open interest of 1051360, showing reduced volume and increased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese companies to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships. As of now, 11 ships are sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, with intensified conflicts between Israel and Iran and no short - term signs of easing, has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, breaking through the previous high pressure level. Considering that Iran is the main importer of methanol in China, methanol still has short - term rebound momentum. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: MA01 in Shandong increased by 70 yuan/ton (4.53%), MA05 increased by 58 yuan/ton (2.53%), and MA09 increased by 99 yuan/ton (4.32%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Guangdong, it increased by 85 yuan/ton (3.66%); in Shaanxi, it increased by 70 yuan/ton (3.58%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it increased by 60 yuan/ton (2.74%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (4.61%); there was no change in Hubei [1]. - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 37.5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Hohhot and Chongqing, there were no changes [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: coal - to - methanol in Northwest MTO remained unchanged at 359.7 yuan/ton; coal - to - methanol in MTO in the East decreased by 159.6 yuan/ton (- 26.60%); natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 570 yuan/ton; MTO in East China decreased by 191.5 yuan/ton (- 26.56%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: acetic acid decreased by 25 yuan/ton (- 5.85%); MTBE increased by 118.2 yuan/ton (50.22%); formaldehyde and another product remained unchanged [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: On June 16, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2282 yuan/ton, closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,689,953 lots and an open interest of 761,314 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA rose significantly in the range and then declined, with the night - session closing at 2373. Due to the short - term rebound momentum of methanol and the high uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].