Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Research Institution: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight EIA inventory data showed a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories. Geopolitically, the UK, France, and Germany may initiate the UN procedure to restore sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will make commitments on its nuclear program within 30 days to delay substantial action. Russia extended its gasoline and fuel export ban, which partially boosted oil prices. However, the domestic market is currently significantly weaker than the international market, highlighting market concerns about demand. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in a low-range oscillation. Short-term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long-term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury Secretary Besent said trade negotiations with China are "all on the table" and will meet with Chinese counterparts again at the end of October or early November. Russia extended its gasoline export ban until September 30, with restrictions on fuel manufacturers to be lifted on October 1 and those on non - manufacturers to last until October 31. The "Friendship" oil pipeline in Hungary is expected to resume oil supply as early as August 27 or 28, though it may not operate at full capacity [3]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price of Oman crude was $69.43 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $68.88 per barrel. The basis was 30.96 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 974,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.725 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 2.392 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.863 million barrels. Cushing region inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, compared to an increase of 419,000 barrels in the previous week. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 19, the main long positions in WTI crude increased, while those in Brent crude decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. Short - term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **European Powers and Iran**: To restart diplomatic negotiations on the nuclear program before losing the ability to restore sanctions in mid - October, the UK, France, and Germany met with Iran on Tuesday. Although there is room for further diplomatic consultations in the coming weeks, the Tuesday meeting did not obtain specific enough commitments from Iran. The E3 has decided to initiate the UN Security Council's "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism, which may be implemented as early as Thursday. Iran has warned of a "tough response" if sanctions are restored [5]. - **India and Russian Oil**: Igor Isaev, the head of the Mind Money analysis center, believes that it is unlikely for India to completely reject Russian oil due to the attractive price of Urals crude and India's strategic demand for energy resources. However, India may balance geopolitics and economics, potentially limiting the purchase volume of Urals crude or diversifying energy supplies [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the content - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the content - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. - **Risk Points**: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and escalation of war risks [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased by $0.45 to $67.22, a decline of 0.66%. WTI crude increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. SC crude increased by 4.30 to 491.0, an increase of 0.88%. Oman crude increased by $0.26 to $69.98, an increase of 0.37% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.19 to $68.48, an increase of 0.28%. WTI increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased by $0.30 to $70.08, an increase of 0.43%. Shengli crude increased by $0.42 to $65.51, an increase of 0.65%. Dubai crude increased by $0.01 to $69.95, an increase of 0.01% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data for different time periods are provided, showing trends of inventory changes [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 19, the net long position was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 19, the net long position was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil continues to stabilize, fluctuate, and recover. With the stagnation of the Russia-Ukraine peace process, Trump issued a "two-week" ultimatum to Russia. As of now, Russia has not made any concessions on the ceasefire agreement. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech boosted the market, causing oil prices to strengthen in the short term. The follow - up should focus on the pressure that the end of the summer peak season on the demand side may bring. It is expected to operate in the range of 488 - 498 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the September meeting, stating that risks in the job market are rising and inflation remains a threat. Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Kazakhstan's oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline continues without restrictions, with a neutral outlook [3]. - **Basis**: On August 22, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.08 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.57 per barrel. The basis was 32.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels), and EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels). Cushing region inventory increased by 0.419 million barrels in the week ending August 15 (previous increase of 0.045 million barrels). As of August 22, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.767 million barrels, remaining unchanged, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 19, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions, presenting a neutral situation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trump's Threat to Russia**: Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Russia still demands that Ukraine give up a large area of territory in the eastern Donbass region, which is firmly rejected by Ukraine. Russia launched an air strike on a US - funded electronics factory in western Ukraine last Thursday, causing at least 15 injuries [5]. - **Powell's Hint of Interest Rate Cut**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the next meeting, saying that the prospect of a more severe slowdown in the job market may alleviate concerns about inflation caused by tariff - induced cost increases [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US conducts secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine; the US has continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium and long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $67.67 to $67.22, a decrease of $0.45 (- 0.66%); WTI crude oil increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); SC crude oil increased from 486.7 to 491.0, an increase of 4.30 (0.88%); Oman crude oil increased from $69.72 to $69.98, an increase of $0.26 (0.37%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $68.29 to $68.48, an increase of $0.19 (0.28%); WTI increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.78 to $70.08, an increase of $0.30 (0.43%); Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $65.09 to $65.51, an increase of $0.42 (0.65%); Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.94 to $69.95, an increase of $0.01 (0.01%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels in the week ending August 15; EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 19, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 19, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, after the peak season ends, the supply will increase. The short - term lack of stimulus leads to a weak oil price trend. As the peak season for demand is about to end, the oil price faces significant downward pressure. It is expected that the price of crude oil 2509 will operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions can be held [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as Trump's talks with Putin did not reach an agreement on halting the war in Ukraine, and he may consider retaliatory tariffs later. The basis is neutral with spot and futures at par. Inventory data is bearish as API, EIA, and Cushing region inventories all increased. The disk shows a bearish signal with the 20 - day moving average downward and the price below it. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long but decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [3]. 2. Recent News - Geopolitical news: European leaders will accompany Zelensky to meet Trump. Trump claims progress with Russia but details are unknown. A proposal of Russia returning part of occupied territory in exchange for Ukraine's concessions is under discussion, and the fate of the Donbass region is crucial [5]. - Economic news: Wall Street expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, but Powell may not give major hints at the Jackson Hole meeting. Analysts are divided on whether a rate cut is certain due to inflation above the 2% target and debates on employment data [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - Bearish factors: Potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent decreased by 0.99 to 65.85 (a decline of 1.48%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), SC increased by 3.40 to 487.0 (an increase of 0.70%), and Oman decreased by 0.27 to 68.19 (a decline of 0.39%) [7]. - Spot prices: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil have also changed. UK Brent decreased by 0.58 to 67.98 (a decline of 0.85%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), Oman increased by 0.53 to 68.47 (an increase of 0.78%), Shengli increased by 0.53 to 64.44 (an increase of 0.83%), and Dubai increased by 0.52 to 68.41 (an increase of 0.77%) [9]. - Inventory data: API inventory increased by 151.9 barrels to 45321.3 barrels in the week ending August 8; EIA inventory increased by 303.6 barrels to 42669.8 barrels in the same period; Cushing region inventory increased by 4.5 barrels to an unspecified total in the week ending August 8; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 476.7 barrels as of August 15 [3][10][15]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 116742, a decrease of 25087 from August 5 [18]. - Brent crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 206547, a decrease of 34430 from August 5 [20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading in crude oil and holding long - short spreads [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, along with relevant news and data, and indicates the current trend strength of crude oil [1][4]. 3. Detailed Summaries International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed up $1.31 per barrel, a 2.09% increase, at $63.96 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed up $1.21 per barrel, a 1.84% increase, at $66.84 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed up 4.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase, at 490.50 yuan per barrel [1]. News and Data - The US announced additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US. Trump said he has no current plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil but might reconsider in two or three weeks [2]. - As of the week ending August 12, the speculative net short position in WTI crude oil decreased by 27,177 contracts to 4,048 contracts [2]. - The market speculates that if Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may sanction Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil [2]. - Putin asked Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk region during his meeting with Trump in Alaska. In exchange, he would freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and not launch new offensives. Zelensky is unwilling to give up Donetsk but is willing to discuss territorial issues with Trump in Washington [3]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, causing a significant market decline. Although Iran launched a missile attack on a US base in Qatar, it informed the US in advance, not escalating the situation and reducing geopolitical concerns. The short - term sentiment has cooled significantly, with the international and domestic crude oil prices falling. The short - term trading range is between 518.6 - 530, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and Iran attacked a US base in Qatar but did not escalate the situation, with a neutral impact [3]. - **Basis**: On June 23, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $76.01 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $75.73 per barrel, with a basis of 2.06 yuan/barrel, and the spot was at par with the futures, showing a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 billion barrels in the week ending June 13, and the EIA inventory decreased by 11.473 billion barrels in the same period, with a decrease in Cushing area inventory, and the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 billion barrels as of June 23, showing a bullish trend [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the average, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Main Position**: As of June 17, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, showing a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: After Trump's announcements, the market sentiment cooled down. The short - term trading range is 518.6 - 530, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, with Iran starting the cease - fire first and Israel following 12 hours later, and the war to be considered over in 24 hours. Iran's senior officials confirmed the agreement. Meanwhile, there were reports of explosions in Iranian cities, and Iran's foreign minister stated that Iran did not seek to escalate tensions but was prepared for US aggression. Some Gulf countries closed and then reopened their airspace, and Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia condemned Iran's attacks [5]. - Fed's Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman said the time for a rate cut seemed to be approaching, and Chicago Fed President Goolsby said the impact of tariff hikes on the economy was relatively mild compared to expectations [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and Iran and Israel are approaching a cease - fire [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed, with Brent crude oil down 3.37 (-4.27%), WTI crude oil down 0.54 (-0.73%), SC crude oil up 13.80 (2.47%), and Oman crude oil up 1.61 (2.13%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various crude oil varieties changed, with UK Brent Dtd down 2.06 (-2.56%), WTI down 1.76 (-2.33%), Oman crude oil up 0.13 (0.17%), Shengli crude oil up 0.65 (0.88%), and Dubai crude oil down 0.02 (-0.03%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 10.133 billion barrels in the week ending June 13, and the EIA inventory decreased by 11.473 billion barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased from 191,941 on June 10 to 231,048 on June 17, with an increase of 39,107 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased from 196,922 on June 10 to 273,175 on June 17, with an increase of 76,253 [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - On June 5, 2025, crude oil showed intraday fluctuations, and it is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads lightly [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content International Crude Oil Prices - WTI July crude oil futures closed down $0.56 per barrel, a 0.88% decline, at $62.85 per barrel - Brent August crude oil futures closed down $0.77 per barrel, a 1.17% decline, at $64.86 per barrel - SC2507 crude oil futures closed down 5.00 yuan per barrel, a 1.07% decline, at 462.60 yuan per barrel [1] Market News and Data - The US opposes the resolution on Gaza [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to accelerate oil production increases in the next few months, aiming to regain market share. It wants to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September. OPEC+ has already agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, despite some disagreements [2] - In the week ending May 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 3.907 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 700 barrels to 13.408 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 401.8 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.346 million barrels per day, a decrease of 500,000 barrels per day from the previous week; EIA Cushing crude oil inventories were 576,000 barrels, compared with 75,000 barrels in the previous value [2] - The US proposed to temporarily allow Iran to continue uranium enrichment activities in the Iran - US nuclear negotiations [2] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 200,000 barrels per day in May, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day [2] - Kazakhstan's national oil transporter KazTransOil supplied 230,000 tons of crude oil to Germany through the Friendship Pipeline in May [2] - Russia's Gazprom shelved the plan to develop a new natural gas distribution hub in Turkey [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for crude oil, with light long positions and positive spreads held [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides real - time prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, including WTI, Brent, and SC2507 crude oil futures, and also lists a series of international events and news that may affect the crude oil market [1][2]. 3. Summary by Content International Crude Oil Prices - WTI July crude oil futures rose $0.33 per barrel, a 0.54% increase, to $61.53 per barrel; Brent July crude oil futures rose $0.34 per barrel, a 0.53% increase, to $64.78 per barrel; SC2507 crude oil futures rose 2.10 yuan per barrel, a 0.46% increase, to 456.80 yuan per barrel [1]. Market - Affecting Events - Multiple events may impact the crude oil market, such as the New Zealand Reserve Bank's interest rate decision, the OPEC and non - OPEC ministerial meeting, the Iran - US nuclear negotiations, the potential EU sanctions on Russia, the US's push for nuclear power, the change in US oil and gas rig numbers, and Egypt's plan to purchase LNG [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive sentiment [3].