以下文章来源于锦缎 ，作者愚老头 锦缎 . 上市公司研究平台，专注价值发现、创造与传播 来源丨 锦缎（ID：jinduan006） 作者丨 愚老头 图源丨Midjourney 比亚迪在今年3月份完成定增之后 ， 5月份创了新高 ， 随后整体表现就是那个睡眼惺忪 ， 萎靡不振的样子 。 到今天 ， 宁德时代的市值都已经是2个比亚迪了 ， 比亚迪感觉还要再一次打响7000亿市值保卫战 。 单纯比较不同赛道公司的市值 ， 其实是一个不怎么符合逻辑的行为 ， 尤其是连工业富联的市值都已经站上万亿的当下 。 我们并不想人云亦云的找几个不涨的理由 ， 无非就是整车竞争激烈 ， 利润下滑 ， 定增结束资本市场动力不足等等 ， 这样做 既耗费自己的精力 ， 也是对大家时间的一种浪费 。 比亚迪一直都是那个比亚迪 ， 基本面上的变化也不大 。 目前的走势 ， 背后是两条路线的选择 。 我们不否认 ， 基本面决定了公司长期的表现 。 但在很多时候 ， 基本面就是为了给上涨找一个理由 。 比亚迪2 、 3季度净利润同比都下滑 ， 当然可以解释成竞争激烈 ， 行业下行 。 但研发费用高增 ， 出口量翻倍 ， 也可以看 成是内在竞争力 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the global energy dynamics, highlighting the competition for energy resources among major powers, particularly the U.S. and China [2][4][13] - It emphasizes the shift from traditional oil dominance to a new focus on electricity as the core energy resource in the AI era, which could reshape global power structures [2][13] Group 1: U.S. Energy Strategy - The U.S. is leveraging its position as the largest single oil exporter to maintain its energy dominance and support traditional energy groups, which are crucial for political funding [4][6] - The U.S. aims to suppress competitors like Venezuela, Russia, and Middle Eastern countries to secure market share in a saturated oil market [4][6] - The strategy involves short-term gains through oil dominance while planning for long-term investments in renewable energy [11] Group 2: China's Energy Ambitions - China is positioning itself for future electricity dominance, with projected power generation reaching 10 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2024, far surpassing the U.S. [7][13] - The rapid growth in China's electricity generation capabilities, including significant solar and hydropower projects, is designed to support both domestic needs and international energy exports [9][10] - The concept of "Electric Renminbi" is emerging, where electricity trade could be conducted in Renminbi, enhancing its global currency status [10][14] Group 3: Global Energy Landscape - The article suggests that the energy market is transitioning into an "Electric Era," with China potentially becoming the first "Electric Kingdom" in history [13] - The competition for energy resources is not just about immediate profits but also about establishing long-term currency dominance linked to energy production [14] - The ongoing energy rivalry is expected to influence global economic and political landscapes for decades to come [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential of the Chinese yuan, referred to as "electricity yuan," to challenge the dominance of the US dollar by leveraging the global demand for electricity [5][35][36] - China is establishing energy cooperation models in Belt and Road countries, where electricity agreements are settled in yuan instead of dollars, exemplified by a 500 MW wind power agreement with Uzbekistan [3][10] - The increasing global reliance on electricity, driven by the rise of electric vehicles and AI, positions electricity as a new anchor for currency, potentially providing a sustainable backing for the yuan [6][18][19] Group 2 - The article highlights the advantages of using yuan for electricity transactions, such as reduced costs and lower volatility compared to the dollar, benefiting countries that previously relied on dollar-denominated contracts [12][13] - China's competitive edge in renewable energy projects, including lower costs and a comprehensive service package, makes it an attractive partner for developing countries [21][23] - The article suggests that the "electricity yuan" strategy could grow in a fragmented global landscape, where countries seek alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial system [17][18] Group 3 - The US has begun to respond to China's initiatives with protective measures, such as tariffs on Chinese energy products and promoting domestic manufacturing through legislation [19][21] - Despite US efforts, China's comprehensive approach to energy projects and its ability to operate in challenging environments give it a significant advantage in the global energy market [24][26] - The potential shift towards "electricity yuan" could disrupt the existing financial order, allowing countries to bypass the dollar and establish a new currency framework based on electricity [35][36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of the "Electricity Renminbi" strategy, which aims to establish the Renminbi as a new global currency anchor through electricity trade, particularly in developing countries that are currently dependent on the US dollar for energy transactions [5][7][17]. Group 1: Electricity Generation and Export - China has initiated the world's largest hydropower project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River cascade power station, which is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, surpassing the Three Gorges Dam [6]. - In 2024, China's new electricity export capacity is projected to reach 24 GW, with 52% coming from renewable sources, marking a historical record [6]. - China is establishing a new energy cooperation model in Belt and Road countries, using Renminbi for pricing and settlement, as seen in a 500 MW wind power agreement with Uzbekistan [6][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Currency Anchoring - The concept of anchoring the Renminbi to electricity is compared to historical instances where currencies were backed by essential commodities like salt during the early years of the People's Republic of China [7]. - The article suggests that if China can create a stable electricity pricing system tied to the Renminbi, it could provide a cash flow-backed anchor for the currency, making it more reliable than gold or oil [7][12]. Group 3: Global Demand for Electricity - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global electric vehicle sales are expected to exceed 17 million units in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for electricity [8]. - AI technologies, such as GPT-5, are also significant consumers of electricity, further driving the demand for stable and affordable energy sources [9][10]. Group 4: Advantages of the "Electricity Renminbi" Strategy - The "Electricity Renminbi" strategy is appealing to countries that wish to avoid the complexities and costs associated with dollar transactions, as it simplifies the payment process and reduces currency exchange risks [17][19]. - Countries like Laos and Kazakhstan are already adopting Renminbi for electricity transactions, which helps them avoid the volatility and high costs associated with the US dollar [15][19]. Group 5: Challenges and Competition - The article acknowledges that the US is already responding to China's initiatives with protective measures, such as tariffs on Chinese renewable energy products and incentives for domestic production [30][31]. - Despite these challenges, China's competitive advantages lie in its lower costs for renewable energy projects and its ability to deliver comprehensive energy solutions, including infrastructure and training [32][34]. Group 6: Future Implications - If the "Electricity Renminbi" becomes a viable alternative to the dollar, it could significantly alter the global financial landscape, reducing the dominance of the dollar and allowing countries to transact in a more stable currency [37][44]. - The shift towards using the Renminbi for energy transactions could empower Chinese manufacturers and workers, allowing them to benefit more directly from their labor without the constraints imposed by dollar fluctuations [46][48].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the launch of the world's largest hydropower project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River cascade power station, which is expected to generate an annual output exceeding 300 billion kilowatt-hours, surpassing the Three Gorges Dam [1] - In 2024, China is set to add 24 GW of new power generation capacity overseas, with 52% coming from renewable energy sources, establishing a significant "power output belt" across Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] - China is promoting a new energy cooperation model in Belt and Road countries, utilizing RMB for pricing and settlement, as exemplified by a 500 MW wind power agreement with Uzbekistan that operates entirely in RMB [3] Group 2 - The concept of "electricity RMB" is proposed as a potential new anchor currency, leveraging the global demand for electricity as a necessity, especially as countries seek alternatives to oil [5][6] - Historical comparisons are made to the use of salt as a backing for currency in early China, suggesting that a stable electricity pricing system could provide a similar backing for the RMB [6][8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electric vehicle sales will exceed 17 million units in 2024, indicating a growing demand for electricity that could support the "electricity RMB" concept [8] Group 3 - The "electricity RMB" strategy is gaining traction in countries that are looking to avoid the dominance of the US dollar, as seen in projects like the 200 MW rooftop solar installation in Laos, which allows for direct RMB transactions [10][13] - The strategy is particularly appealing to developing nations that face high costs and volatility associated with dollar transactions, as RMB transactions offer lower interest rates and reduced fees [16][17] - The article discusses the potential for the "electricity RMB" to grow in a fragmented and decentralized world, where countries seek alternatives to the centralized dollar system [22][23] Group 4 - The article highlights the competitive landscape, noting that the US has begun to respond to China's initiatives with policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to protect its own energy market [24][26] - China's advantages in the energy sector include a complete supply chain and lower costs for renewable energy projects, making it an attractive partner for developing countries [27][30] - The ability of Chinese companies to operate in challenging environments gives them a competitive edge over US firms, as demonstrated by successful projects in Angola and Myanmar [31][33] Group 5 - The potential shift from a dollar-dominated system to an "electricity RMB" framework could significantly alter global financial dynamics, reducing reliance on the dollar and allowing for more stable pricing in RMB [34][39] - The article posits that as renewable energy becomes cheaper than oil, the foundations of the dollar's dominance could be undermined, leading to a new era of currency dynamics [40][41] - Ultimately, the success of the "electricity RMB" could empower Chinese manufacturers and workers, allowing them to benefit more directly from their labor without the constraints of dollar fluctuations [42]