Group 1 - BNP Paribas indicates that electric vehicle manufacturers Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group will benefit from the tax reform spending bill proposed by former President Donald Trump, which has passed the Senate and is currently in the House [1] - The bill will terminate the $7,500 electric vehicle consumer tax credit after September 30, leading to a potential increase in market share for Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla as competition from traditional automakers may weaken [1][2] - Analysts expect that the expansion pace of traditional automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Hyundai will slow down due to declining government subsidies and softening consumer demand, which could favor pure electric brands [1][2] Group 2 - Rivian and Lucid's second-quarter delivery numbers fell short of expectations, with Rivian delivering 10,661 vehicles (2.3% below analyst estimates) and Lucid delivering 3,309 vehicles (4% below expectations) [2] - BNP Paribas forecasts a rebound in deliveries in the third quarter as consumers rush to purchase vehicles before the tax credit expiration [2] - The analyst rates Rivian as "outperform" and Lucid as "underperform," suggesting a greater potential benefit for Rivian due to its production capabilities compared to Lucid's slower ramp-up [3]

Core Insights - The willingness to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) in the U.S. has dropped to a six-year low, with only 16% of adults indicating they are "very likely" or "likely" to buy an EV, down from 25% in 2022 [1] - Concerns over high battery repair costs (62%), high purchase prices (59%), and the suitability of EVs for long trips (57%) remain significant barriers to adoption [1] - The decline in gasoline prices to a four-year low has diminished the economic incentive to switch to EVs, with 74% of potential buyers previously citing fuel savings as a primary motivation [2] Consumer Sentiment - Interest in tax credits and subsidies for EV purchases has plummeted from 60% last year to 39% this year, with 12% of respondents worried about potential cuts to these incentives [5] - The belief that most passenger vehicles will be electrified within the next decade has decreased from 40% in 2022 to 23% in 2023, indicating growing skepticism about the future of EVs [5] Market Trends - Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are gaining popularity as a more pragmatic choice for consumers, combining the benefits of traditional internal combustion engines with electric power [6] - Despite the introduction of over 75 new EV models in the past four years, consumer hesitation towards purchasing electric vehicles persists, reflecting uncertainty about the future of EVs [6]

Core Viewpoint - After the end of electric vehicle subsidies in the U.S., Tesla's sales are expected to decline significantly due to the planned cancellation of the $7,500 tax credit by the end of 2025, which is seven years earlier than originally scheduled [1] Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Changes - The U.S. spending bill plans to eliminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit by the end of 2025, impacting Tesla's sales [1] - Analyst Seth Goldstein from Morningstar believes that the removal of government subsidies will not be a major long-term driver for electric vehicle growth [1] Group 2: Broader Implications - Former President Trump has threatened to cancel all government contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies, although the impact on SpaceX is expected to be greater than on Tesla [1] - Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of $250 for Tesla [1]