国金证券近日发布储能与锂电行业2026年度策略：全球储能行业正开启增长新周期，预计2026年全球储 能新增装机将达438GWh，同比增长62%。增长动力由过去的单一新能源消纳，转变为"AI算力基建+能 源转型刚需+电网阻塞"的三重驱动。行业供需关系显著改善，由去库周期转入补库繁荣期，部分产业 链环节将迎来量价齐升。 贸易壁垒升级，供应链本土化：美国通过OBBBA法案将监管从FEOC升级为更严苛的PFE，与补贴挂 钩；欧盟《净零工业法案》引入非价格标准。具备海外本土化产能的企业将获得极高的溢价能力。 中国：预计26年装机250GWh，同比+67%，政策从"强配"转向"盈利"。"136号文"推动新能源全电量入 市，配合容量电价机制，储能商业模式从成本项转变为通过现货套利和容量补偿获利的独立资产。 美国：预计26年装机70GWh，同比+35%，AI驱动刚性增长。AI数据中心预计在2025-2028年带来18- 279GWh的储能需求。尽管政策有波动，但大储作为核心引擎确定性极强。 欧洲：预计26年装机51GWh，同比+55%，从"预期"走向"锁定"。意大利MACSE招标、西班牙创新招标 及英国容量市场通过长周期合约 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy storage industry, highlighting a new growth cycle driven by multiple factors [2]. Core Insights - The global energy storage industry is expected to see significant growth, with new installations projected to reach 438 GWh by 2026, representing a 62% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by the transition from a single focus on renewable energy consumption to a triad of drivers: AI computing infrastructure, energy transition needs, and grid congestion [2]. - In China, new installations are expected to reach 250 GWh in 2026, a 67% increase year-on-year, as policies shift from "strong allocation" to "profitability" [2]. - The U.S. is projected to see 70 GWh of new installations in 2026, a 35% increase year-on-year, with AI driving rigid growth [2]. - Europe is expected to install 51 GWh in 2026, a 55% increase year-on-year, with long-term contracts locking in demand [2]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to see a 91% year-on-year increase in installations, reaching 67 GWh by 2026, driven by economic benefits from "diesel replacement" [3]. Summary by Sections Macro Section: Restructuring Demand and Barriers - The mismatch between the rapid expansion of AI computing and the slow growth of power grids is creating significant bottlenecks in the U.S. and Europe, with average waiting times for grid connections extending to 3-10 years [13]. - Energy storage is becoming a strategic infrastructure to bypass grid bottlenecks, allowing data centers to meet load reduction requirements and avoid lengthy approval processes for grid expansion [13][17]. Demand Section: New Growth Cycle Driven by AI and Energy Transition - The report emphasizes that the energy storage market is transitioning from a focus on backup power to active supply, with storage systems now capable of peak shaving and grid support [17]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surge due to the increasing need for AI data centers and the ongoing energy transition [2][3]. Supply Section: Navigating Through Oversupply Cycles - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover from a period of oversupply, with a significant rebound anticipated in 2026 as demand driven by AI and energy storage continues to grow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on midstream materials that are experiencing supply-demand reversals, recommending investments in critical segments such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and carbonates [4]. New Technology: Advancements in Solid-State Batteries - The report forecasts that solid-state batteries will begin small-scale production in 2026, with significant advancements in materials and manufacturing processes expected [4]. - The commercialization of solid-liquid batteries is anticipated to occur in 2026, with applications across various sectors including robotics and consumer electronics [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in critical supply chain segments that are expected to see price increases, as well as companies with localized manufacturing capabilities that can navigate trade barriers effectively [4]. - Companies providing integrated energy solutions for data centers and those involved in solid-state battery technology are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4].