Core Viewpoint - The price of Guizhou Moutai's 53-degree Flying Fairy double bottle on Pinduoduo for the "Double Eleven" event is set at 3170 yuan, with a platform subsidy of 695 yuan, bringing the price per bottle down to 1585 yuan, which is below 1600 yuan [1] Pricing Dynamics - The retail price of Flying Moutai in physical stores in Shenzhen is reported to be around 1920 yuan per bottle, with store owners indicating that this is the lowest price they can offer, earning only a small profit [1] - A store in Shenzhen mentioned that the price of Flying Moutai is adjusted daily, and the current price is close to their procurement cost, indicating that e-commerce platforms are using subsidies to lower the prices of premium liquor [1] Market Trends - Traditionally, September and October are peak sales months for liquor, but data from third-party price platforms show a continuous decline in the wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai since late October, with a notable acceleration in this trend [1] - The wholesale price for scattered bottles was 1730 yuan per bottle on October 23, which dropped to 1635 yuan by November 3, while the original box price fell from 1770 yuan to 1670 yuan in the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Double 11" shopping festival has been extended to 36 days, coinciding with a significant crackdown on counterfeit products in the liquor industry, particularly targeting unauthorized sales channels [2][3][4]. Group 1: E-commerce Promotions - Major e-commerce platforms are adopting straightforward discount strategies, with JD.com offering discounts as low as 10% and Douyin providing at least 15% off, while Tmall is distributing 50 billion yuan in consumer vouchers [3]. - JD.com reported a significant increase in sales, with over 5.2 million brands seeing a year-on-year growth of over 300%, particularly in liquor categories, where aged liquor sales surged by 150% [3]. Group 2: Crackdown on Counterfeit Products - Leading liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have released official lists of authorized sales channels, while also naming unauthorized sellers, including major platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo [4][5]. - The crackdown is a response to the aggressive price cuts and the proliferation of counterfeit products, with Moutai's price dropping below 1700 yuan and Wuliangye's below 800 yuan on some platforms [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry's recent anti-counterfeit actions are not new, as major brands have previously targeted unauthorized sellers during major sales events [5]. - Industry analysts suggest that the crackdown aims to stabilize pricing, protect consumers from counterfeit products, and encourage e-commerce platforms to establish authorized sales mechanisms [5][9]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The ongoing low-price promotions threaten the survival of offline distributors and disrupt the established pricing structure of the liquor industry [7]. - There are concerns about counterfeit products, with a significant percentage of products tested being fake, highlighting the risks associated with low-price sales [7]. Group 5: Online Sales Growth - Despite challenges, online sales of liquor have seen substantial growth, with platforms like Meituan reporting an eightfold increase in sales and JD.com experiencing a 109% increase during the recent shopping festival [8][9]. - The liquor industry is navigating a complex landscape where online sales are becoming increasingly important, prompting companies to redefine their sales strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with predictions that if it falls to 1900 yuan, most distributors will incur losses due to various hidden costs involved in the distribution process [1][3][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 12, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has shown a clear downward trend, with prices dropping to 1990 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [8]. - The price for Feitian Moutai in original boxes has also decreased significantly, now quoted at 2080 yuan per bottle, down 30 yuan from the previous day [8]. - Some e-commerce platforms have reported prices as low as 1900 yuan for individual bottles, indicating a significant price disparity in the market [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices is attributed to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected market demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, leading distributors to sell at a loss to recover funds [8]. - E-commerce promotional strategies, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, have further pressured prices downward as many platforms use low-priced Moutai as a loss leader to attract customers [8]. - The current consumption environment has changed significantly, contributing to a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with consumers increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach [9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is growing consumer hesitation, with many choosing to hold off on purchases in anticipation of further price drops [9]. - The introduction of a ban on alcohol consumption raises questions about the future consumer base for Moutai, as it may limit the number of individuals willing to purchase and consume the product [9].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is facing challenges due to conflicts between traditional offline distribution models and e-commerce sales, particularly highlighted during the "618" promotional event, where low-price promotions have re-emerged, raising concerns about the impact on pricing structures and market dynamics [1][2][6]. Group 1: E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have initiated low-price promotions for premium liquor, with prices for 53-degree Feitian Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle, which is lower than the market average [1]. - The intensity of this year's "618" promotions is less than in previous years, with fewer participants and less aggressive discounting, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2][6]. - The control over pricing by liquor companies has weakened as e-commerce platforms have started to establish their own trading companies, complicating the ability of liquor companies to manage pricing effectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall performance of major liquor companies is expected to decline starting from the second half of 2024 into the first quarter of 2025, influenced by a sluggish consumption market and proactive measures taken by companies to manage inventory [6]. - Some second and third-tier liquor companies are struggling, with reports of significant price reductions online compared to offline sales, indicating a potential oversupply or desperate measures to stimulate sales [6][7]. - The current market environment is characterized by intense competition and slow sales, leading to innovative but concerning practices such as selling opened or discounted products to stimulate consumption [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts express concerns about the long-term market outlook, suggesting that the current challenges may persist for several years, with a potential market recovery taking 3 to 5 years [7][8]. - Discussions among liquor companies at recent earnings meetings have shifted focus towards consumer behavior changes, internationalization, and channel reforms, with little emphasis on addressing e-commerce challenges [8].