Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped from a peak of 3500 yuan to 1399 yuan, marking a 57% decline over four years, indicating a market correction of the previously inflated prices driven by scarcity [3][4]. Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of Moutai has reached a historical low of 1500 yuan, with some e-commerce platforms offering it at 1399 yuan, reflecting a drastic price drop compared to previous years [3]. - The decline in prices is attributed to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with increased direct sales and competition from e-commerce platforms disrupting the scarcity myth [3][4]. - The white liquor industry is facing a significant inventory issue, with total inventory across 20 listed companies reaching 176.69 billion yuan and inventory turnover days soaring to 1424 days [4][5]. Group 2: Demand Challenges - The demand for Moutai has been adversely affected by regulatory changes, with government consumption dropping from 40% to 0.8%, and a 15% decline in business banquet demand [4]. - The younger generation shows a declining interest in liquor, with only 8.7% of Gen Z consuming Moutai, as health concerns lead to reduced alcohol consumption [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite the price drop, Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 130.90 billion yuan, a slight increase of 6.33%, while net profit grew by 6.25% [5]. - However, cash flow from operating activities decreased by 14.01%, indicating increasing pressure on sales collections [5][6]. - Moutai's inventory value reached 55.86 billion yuan, up 15.83% year-on-year, raising concerns about turnover efficiency during a demand downturn [5][6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with 19 listed companies reporting a 5.84% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [7]. - High-end liquor brands are particularly affected, with significant price drops and increased competition leading to a challenging market environment [7][8]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on "quantity and price increase" to "inventory reduction," with various strategies being employed to manage excess stock [8][9]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Changes - The decline in Moutai prices signifies a return to consumer-oriented pricing, moving away from speculative investment behaviors that dominated the market [9][10]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant reshaping, with leading brands leveraging their financial strength and brand equity to consolidate market share [9][10]. - Future growth in the white liquor sector will likely focus on quality and brand culture rather than mere price elevation, as consumer preferences evolve [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, led by Moutai and Wuliangye, is experiencing a price correction, with Moutai's prices rebounding after previously falling below the official guidance price, indicating a shift in the industry's focus towards channel health and genuine consumer demand [1][2][4]. Price Trends - On December 14, 2025, the wholesale price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai rose to 1590 RMB per bottle, an increase of 70 RMB from the previous day, while the price had previously dropped to 1495 RMB per bottle on December 12, falling below the official guidance price of 1499 RMB [1][2]. - The price of Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend throughout the second half of the year, dropping below 2000 RMB in June, 1800 RMB in August, and 1700 RMB by the end of October [4]. Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a need to balance channel inventory and consumer demand, leading to a shift from maintaining price benchmarks to ensuring healthy operations for distributors [1][5]. - Other major liquor brands are also facing pressure, with prices for core products declining compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a broader industry trend [5]. Strategic Responses - Moutai has implemented a volume control policy to alleviate pressure on distributors, including a temporary halt on product distribution until January 1, 2026, to prevent forced selling during a financially tight period for distributors [4][6]. - The new chairman of Moutai emphasized a balanced approach between short-term and long-term strategies, focusing on digital transformation and channel integration to adapt to the current market conditions [6]. Market Dynamics - The focus of competition is shifting from price maintenance to value realization and channel health, with industry leaders recognizing the need to clear speculative bubbles and return to rational consumption [7]. - The restructuring of the pricing system is seen as a necessary process for the industry to recover from speculative pressures, with the potential for stronger brands to optimize their internal structures during this period [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has fallen below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a significant shift in the Chinese consumer market and reflecting deeper changes in the industry [1][4]. Price Decline - Moutai's wholesale price for 53-degree 500ml bottles dropped to 1485 yuan, with box prices at 1495 yuan, both breaking the long-held 1499 yuan threshold [1]. - Compared to the peak price of over 2200 yuan at the beginning of 2025, the decline exceeds 30%, with some e-commerce platforms offering promotional prices as low as 1399 yuan [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The price drop is a result of a prolonged decline, starting with the first breach of the 2000 yuan psychological barrier in June 2025, followed by continuous decreases throughout the year [3]. - Retail prices in offline stores have decreased from over 2000 yuan to around 1580 yuan, allowing consumers to purchase Moutai at more accessible prices [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The reversal in supply-demand dynamics is the fundamental reason for the price drop, with Moutai's production capacity expected to reach 48,000 tons in 2025 and social inventory estimated between 120 million to 220 million bottles [6]. - Demand has weakened significantly, with government consumption dropping to 0.8% and business banquet demand reduced by 30%, while younger consumers show less interest in high-proof liquor [6]. Channel Changes - The transformation of distribution channels has disrupted the traditional pricing system, with direct sales from Moutai increasing from 13.5% in 2020 to 46.8% [6]. - E-commerce platforms are using Moutai as a "traffic tool," leading to a vicious cycle of price cuts and inventory issues [6]. Financial Implications - The financial appeal of Moutai has diminished, with annualized returns dropping below 5%, prompting speculative funds to withdraw [6]. - Prices for previously inflated products, such as the "scattered Moutai," have plummeted over 70%, now below 3000 yuan [6]. Industry Impact - The collapse of Moutai's price has triggered a domino effect across the high-end liquor sector, with other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao experiencing significant price drops [9]. - Among 18 listed liquor companies, only Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu have shown slight growth, while others face substantial declines in revenue and profit [9]. Future Outlook - The decline in Moutai's price signifies the end of an era reliant on government consumption and speculative investment [11]. - Moutai is adapting by introducing smaller packaging and new products aimed at younger consumers, while industry analysts suggest that 2026 may mark a turning point as inventory levels normalize [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the Moutai brand and the broader challenges facing the Chinese liquor industry, highlighting a structural transformation driven by changing consumer preferences and economic pressures [5][14]. Group 1: Moutai's Price Decline - Moutai's price has plummeted from over 2000 yuan to below 1700 yuan, with a record low of 1640 yuan per bottle reported in November [5][6]. - The decline in Moutai's price has triggered a ripple effect across the industry, leading to negative growth for major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, with 18 A-share liquor companies reporting collective performance declines [5][8]. Group 2: Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing severe financial pressure, with many halting purchases due to price volatility and losses on inventory [6][8]. - The bundling purchase requirement for Moutai forces dealers to buy less popular products, exacerbating their financial strain as these products often sell at a loss [6][7]. Group 3: Inventory and Cash Flow Issues - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant increase in inventory, with stock levels rising by 63% since 2021, leading to a cash flow crisis for many dealers [10][12]. - The average inventory turnover period has extended to 1424 days, indicating a severe slowdown in sales and a growing backlog of unsold products [12]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation is moving away from traditional liquor consumption, favoring low-alcohol beverages and cocktails, which is reshaping market dynamics [14][15]. - The shift in consumer behavior is compounded by a decline in demand for high-end liquor during traditional festive seasons, with a reported 20% to 30% drop in overall demand [10][14]. Group 5: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Liquor companies are attempting to innovate by introducing lower-alcohol products and diversifying into cocktails to attract younger consumers [15][16]. - However, the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain, as the industry grapples with overcapacity and a potential long-term downturn [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The "Moutai myth" is collapsing, with the price of Feitian Moutai experiencing a significant decline, leading to widespread losses among investors and industry players [5][6][10]. Price Decline and Market Impact - Feitian Moutai's price fell from over 2000 yuan to 1640 yuan per bottle, marking a historic low [5][6]. - The price drop has triggered a chain reaction in the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also reporting negative growth for the first time in a decade [5][6][10]. - The overall white liquor industry is facing a downturn, with 18 A-share listed companies reporting collective performance declines [5][10]. Dealer and Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing severe financial pressure, with many halting purchases due to unsold inventory and price declines [6][8]. - The profit margins for distributors have been squeezed, as they are forced to bundle high-priced products with Moutai to secure inventory [6][7]. - A significant number of distributors are reporting losses, with some predicting losses exceeding 30 million yuan this year [7][10]. Inventory and Cash Flow Issues - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "money shortage," with inventory levels rising significantly [9][12]. - As of Q3 2025, the inventory turnover days have increased to an average of 1424 days, indicating a severe liquidity crisis [12][13]. - Over 58% of distributors reported increased inventory, and more than 40% are facing cash flow pressures [8][12]. Changing Consumer Preferences - The decline in demand is attributed to a generational shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers showing less interest in traditional high-end liquor [15][16]. - Younger consumers prefer low-alcohol beverages and are increasingly opting for alternatives like fruit wines and non-alcoholic drinks [15][16]. - The traditional "drinking culture" is being challenged, leading to a significant shift in market dynamics [15][16]. Industry Response and Future Outlook - In response to the downturn, companies are innovating products to appeal to younger consumers, including lower-alcohol and flavored options [16][17]. - However, the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain, as the entrenched perceptions of traditional liquor may hinder acceptance [17]. - The industry is expected to remain in a turbulent phase for the next 2-3 years, with ongoing challenges in attracting younger consumers and managing inventory [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly declined, with wholesale prices dropping below 1700 yuan, leading to substantial losses for distributors and raising concerns about the future of the high-end liquor market [1][3][5] Price Trends - Moutai's price has seen a dramatic decrease from 3260 yuan in January 2022 to 1680 yuan by November 2025, marking a cumulative decline of over 48% [3][5] - The price drop is attributed to a combination of excess inventory, policy changes, and shifting consumer trends [5][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in Moutai's production capacity, from 39,300 tons in 2016 to 56,300 tons in 2024, has contributed to the downward pressure on prices [7] - The demand for high-end liquor has shrunk, particularly due to the "ban on alcohol" policy affecting government-related consumption, which has dropped to less than 1% of total sales [9][11] Market Impact - The decline in Moutai's price has triggered a ripple effect across the high-end liquor market, with other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao also experiencing price drops [11][15] - The overall white liquor industry is facing challenges, with production declining for nine consecutive quarters and a 23% reduction in actual consumption [11][15] Company Response and Future Outlook - Moutai is attempting to stabilize prices through supply control and has recently appointed a new chairman, indicating a response to the current market pressures [17][19] - The long-term stability of Moutai's prices will depend on the effective management of excess inventory and the ability to attract younger consumers [19][21] Consumer Behavior Shift - Younger consumers show a preference for lower-alcohol beverages, with only 9% of them consuming white liquor, indicating a potential long-term challenge for Moutai [9][11] - The shift in consumer preferences necessitates Moutai to innovate and adapt its product offerings to appeal to younger demographics [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - Douyin is actively combating the sale of counterfeit and low-priced Moutai products on its platform, reflecting a broader effort within the liquor industry and e-commerce platforms to address issues of low pricing, counterfeit goods, and tax evasion [2][3][4]. Group 1: Douyin's Actions - Douyin has banned 600,000 accounts involved in selling counterfeit Moutai and low-priced products this year, and has removed over 2,000 illegal items and expelled 690 merchants in the last three months [2][4][6]. - The platform has initiated a series of announcements and actions targeting false marketing and unauthorized sales, including a warning on November 10 and a follow-up notice on November 11 detailing the focus on low-price gimmicks and false advertising [4][6]. - Douyin's crackdown has led to the disappearance of the previously common 1,499 yuan per bottle Moutai listings, with official flagship stores now listing prices above 1,700 yuan [3][6]. Group 2: Market Impact - The price of the 2024-2025 Moutai has risen to over 1,700 yuan, with older vintages exceeding 2,000 yuan, aligning with offline market prices [7]. - The crackdown has resulted in a shift in the e-commerce landscape for liquor, with authorized stores becoming more prominent and unauthorized sellers being removed from the platform [7][9]. - Other premium liquors, such as Wuliangye and Guojiao, still have products listed below 900 yuan, indicating ongoing pricing discrepancies in the market [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The implementation of the "E-commerce Tax" regulation on October 1, 2025, aims to combat issues like unreported sales and low-price dumping by requiring platforms to report merchant income [8]. - The liquor industry is witnessing a coordinated effort to establish a transparent and regulated e-commerce environment, with major brands releasing official lists of authorized sellers to guide consumers [9].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with major companies reporting substantial declines in revenue and profit, marking the worst performance in a decade [3][5][24] - The decline is attributed to various factors, including changes in consumer behavior, economic pressures, and a shift in demand dynamics, leading to an inventory crisis across the industry [19][21][23] Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, 20 listed liquor companies in A-shares saw a total revenue decline of 18.42% year-on-year, with net profits dropping by 22.03% [3][24] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai reported drastic revenue drops, with Wuliangye's revenue halving and profits plummeting by 65% [5][28] - Moutai's wholesale price fell below 1700 yuan, a historic low, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2022 [2][3] Inventory Crisis - The average inventory turnover days in the industry reached 900 days, indicating a severe backlog where new products may take over two years to reach consumers [19] - Nearly 60% of distributors reported increasing inventory levels, leading to a cash flow crisis and forcing many to resort to drastic price cuts to survive [19][20] Market Dynamics - The industry is facing a fundamental shift in supply and demand, exacerbated by policies like the "ban on alcohol" which have reduced business-related consumption [21][22] - The once lucrative mid-range price segment (800-1500 yuan) has become a "death zone" for many brands, with 60% of companies experiencing price declines [13][19] Strategic Responses - Companies are urged to restructure their relationships with distributors, focusing on mutual survival rather than aggressive sales targets [29] - A shift towards optimizing product lines and focusing on core products is necessary for regaining market strength [30] - Long-term strategies must include rebranding efforts to appeal to younger consumers, moving away from outdated narratives [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with prices reaching as low as 1499 yuan per bottle, indicating a major shift in the high-end liquor market and consumer behavior [2][4][12]. Price Trends - In 2024, the price of Feitian Moutai was around 2000 yuan, but by 2025, it fell to 1499 yuan due to aggressive discounting strategies by e-commerce platforms [2][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai on various platforms during the 2025 Double Eleven included 1640 yuan on Taobao, 1664.9 yuan on JD, and 1499 yuan on Pinduoduo, with some reports of prices as low as 1399 yuan [3][6][10]. Market Dynamics - The prolonged promotional period leading up to Double Eleven has resulted in a continuous decline in prices, with reports of daily price changes and significant drops in wholesale prices [4][5][8]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has been on a downward trend for over a year and a half, with a notable decline starting in April 2024, influenced by various market factors including increased supply and changing consumer preferences [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - The perception of Moutai as a luxury item has diminished, with consumers expressing dissatisfaction over the price drops, indicating a shift in the market dynamics and consumer sentiment [4][11]. - Younger consumers are moving away from traditional drinking cultures, impacting the demand for high-end liquors like Moutai [11][15]. Industry Impact - The decline in Moutai prices is reflective of broader challenges in the liquor industry, with other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experiencing significant price drops [13][14]. - The traditional inventory management practices in the liquor industry, characterized by "stock pressure-control price-repressure," are being challenged as prices continue to fall, leading to potential long-term implications for the market [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors regarding Douyin's punishment for selling Moutai below market price have been clarified as a misunderstanding, with the platform focusing on combating false advertising and suspiciously low prices in the liquor category, particularly for Moutai [2] Group 1: Douyin's Actions - Douyin has initiated a special action to combat false advertising and suspiciously low prices in the liquor category, specifically targeting two behaviors: misleading low prices for traffic and sales of potentially counterfeit products [2] - The platform has already banned over 100 abnormal low-priced products and restricted 52 merchants from operating [2] Group 2: Industry Response - Major liquor companies have launched a concentrated effort to clean up their sales channels, announcing official authorized sales channels and naming non-authorized stores [3][4] - Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have publicly listed non-authorized stores, including well-known platforms like Meituan and 1919 [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing a unique market environment with offline sales under pressure while online sales are experiencing explosive growth [5] - During the recent Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, liquor sales saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 20%, despite some price recovery [5] - In contrast, online platforms reported significant sales increases, with Moutai sales up nearly 10 times and Wuliangye sales up nearly 3 times during the holiday period [5] Group 4: E-commerce Challenges - The rapid growth of liquor e-commerce has led to aggressive price cuts during promotional events like Double Eleven, with Moutai's subsidized price dropping to 1499 yuan per bottle [6] - The shift in supply chain dynamics, moving from direct manufacturer supply to distributor supply, has resulted in significant price discrepancies across platforms [6] - A notable percentage of products purchased from e-commerce platforms have been identified as counterfeit, with Wuliangye reporting that 16.65% of tested products were fake [6] Group 5: Strategic Shifts - Liquor companies are not only focusing on channel cleanup but are also restructuring their channel models to regain control over their brand presence in e-commerce [7] - Collaborations with e-commerce platforms are being explored to enhance brand integrity and sales efficiency [9] - The rapid development of e-commerce presents both opportunities for growth and challenges related to unauthorized sales and price control [9]