高端、次高端"微复苏" 2026年伊始，酒类市场逐渐复苏。1月6日，北京商报记者走访北京部分终端市场发现，开年以来，高端 白酒依然是商超以及烟酒店主推产品。其中，在沃尔玛、盒马鲜生等商超渠道，五粮液、茅台1935等高 端产品礼盒均以堆头形式作为推荐首选。与高端酒价格修复形成呼应的是，300—500元价格带的次高端 产品成为元旦假期的销售主力。高端产品与次高端价格带产品成为假期"宠儿"，其背后是送礼需求与宴 席市场的双重驱动。即将进入春节销售旺季，2026年白酒消费加速复苏的突破口在哪？ 2026年元旦假期，中国酒类消费市场出现复苏迹象。北京商报记者走访终端市场发现，元旦期间，高端 白酒成为商超与烟酒店主推产品。在位于北京西单及和平里附近的盒马鲜生店内，记者发现包括五粮 液、青花汾酒、水井坊、红花郎等品牌的礼盒。不仅商超渠道，在位于方庄附近的烟酒店内，高端白酒 产品也被摆放在较为显眼的位置。但与商超渠道不同的是，烟酒店中主推的高端产品主要以单瓶装为 主。该店店员表示，元旦假期的送礼场景较多，因此主推茅台、五粮液等高端产品。 当终端市场热捧高端产品时，2026年白酒消费旺季也迎来新变化。上述方庄附近烟酒店的店员表 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing a price adjustment, with the average retail price of the top ten products decreasing for the second consecutive day, currently priced at 9188 yuan, down 34 yuan from the previous day [1] - A notable increase in prices was observed for Qinghua Lang, which rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Feitian Moutai saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1] - The chairman of Jinshiyuan expressed optimism about a gradual recovery in the white liquor market next year, despite current challenges such as weak demand and intense competition [1] Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products has decreased, with specific products showing varied price movements: - Feitian Moutai: 1829 yuan, up 1 yuan - Premium Moutai: 2361 yuan, down 4 yuan - Wuliangye: 853 yuan, down 5 yuan - Guojiao 1573: 877 yuan, down 6 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan, down 6 yuan - Xijiu Junpin: 669 yuan, down 6 yuan - Qinghua Lang: 720 yuan, up 2 yuan [3][4] Market Outlook - Jinshiyuan's chairman indicated that the company is seeing progress in expanding its market outside the province, which provides some resilience despite a decline in performance in the first three quarters [1] - The industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with a cautious optimism about future recovery as inventory levels among distributors have peaked [1]

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing a price adjustment, with the average retail price of the top ten products decreasing for the second consecutive day, currently at 9188 yuan, down 34 yuan from the previous day [1] - A notable increase in prices was observed for Qinghua Lang, which rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Feitian Moutai saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1] - The chairman of Jinshiyuan expressed optimism about a gradual recovery in the white liquor market next year, despite current challenges such as weak demand and intense competition [1] Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products is currently 9188 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day [1] - Specific price changes include: - Feitian Moutai: 1829 yuan (+1 yuan) - Premium Moutai: 2361 yuan (-4 yuan) - Wuliangye: 853 yuan (-5 yuan) - Guojiao 1573: 877 yuan (-6 yuan) - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan (-6 yuan) - Xijiu Junpin: 669 yuan (-6 yuan) - Qinghua Lang: 720 yuan (+2 yuan) [3][4] Market Outlook - Jinshiyuan's chairman indicated that the company is cautiously optimistic about the market's recovery, noting that the peak inventory levels among distributors have passed, suggesting the industry is at a cyclical low [1] - This sentiment aligns with analyses from some brokerage firms, providing a boost of confidence to the white liquor industry, which is currently undergoing significant adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses optimism about the gradual recovery of the liquor market in the coming year, marking the first time a prominent liquor brand leader has signaled confidence in market recovery this year [2] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the company reported revenue of 8.881 billion and net profit of 2.549 billion, representing year-on-year declines of 10.66% and 17.39% respectively [2] - The company's performance is noted to be better than the industry average, as the average revenue decline for liquor companies was 20% and net profit decline was 39.2% [3] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its management systems and increasing market share, with a strong emphasis on its main brand, Guoyuan, which continues to gain popularity and is a significant revenue driver [3] - The company is actively expanding into provincial markets, particularly in Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang, and is implementing a "six focus" strategy to develop various market segments [3] Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the adjustment period for the liquor industry may last until at least 2026, with inventory pressures being a significant concern [4] - Despite the challenges, there is a belief that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with the highest inventory levels having passed [4] - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its performance in 2025, acknowledging potential pressures due to high comparative bases from the previous year [4]

Core Insights - The company, Jinshiyuan, reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 8.881 billion yuan, down 10.66% year-on-year, and net profit of 2.549 billion yuan, down 17.39% [1] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue drop of 26.8% to 1.93 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 48.69% to 320 million yuan, marking the worst performance in nearly a decade [1] - The company heavily relies on the Jiangsu market, with nearly 90% of its revenue coming from the province, where core markets experienced over 30% revenue declines [1] Industry Context - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase focused on "de-stocking, stabilizing prices, and promoting sales," significantly impacting overall industry performance since the second quarter [2] - The chairman expressed that the brand "Guo Yuan" maintains upward momentum and increasing popularity among consumers, despite market pressures [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the white liquor market in 2026, driven by improved management systems, increased market share, and enhanced marketing team effectiveness [3] - The chairman remains cautiously optimistic about the company's growth prospects, acknowledging the challenges posed by high comparative bases in the first half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the white liquor market and a need for strategic adjustments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jinshiyuan achieved total revenue of 8.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.549 billion yuan, down 17.39% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 2.04 yuan [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.93 billion yuan, a decline of 26.8% year-on-year, while net profit fell sharply by 48.69% to 320 million yuan, marking the worst performance in nearly a decade [1] Market Dynamics - The company heavily relies on the Jiangsu market, with nearly 90% of its revenue generated from this region [1] - Key markets within Jiangsu, such as Huai'an, Nanjing, and Southern Jiangsu, experienced revenue declines exceeding 30% [1] - The company is currently navigating a deep adjustment phase in the white liquor industry, focusing on destocking, stabilizing prices, and promoting sales [1] Future Outlook - The management expressed cautious optimism about a gradual recovery in the white liquor market in 2026, despite anticipated pressures due to high comparative bases in the first half of the year [2] - The company aims to enhance its management systems and improve market share as key drivers for future growth [2] - Jinshiyuan is focusing on expanding its sales outside Jiangsu, particularly in surrounding provinces like Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang, through a structured market development strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent relaxation of the strict "ban on alcohol" signals a potential recovery for the liquor market, particularly with the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, but underlying structural challenges remain unresolved [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The relaxation of the "ban on alcohol" has led to various local governments implementing policies to stimulate consumption, such as the 1.78 billion yuan initiative in Shaoxing to boost dining and hospitality sectors, which is expected to enhance liquor sales during festive periods [4][5]. - In regions like Henan and Anhui, state-owned enterprise executives have resumed hotel consumption, and local governments are encouraging normal social consumption among civil servants, which is crucial for restoring market confidence [5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Despite the policy relaxation, the liquor market has not experienced a "V-shaped rebound," as many businesses still face significant sales challenges, particularly in the high-end segment where price and sales volume discrepancies persist [6][7]. - The mid to low-end liquor market continues to struggle due to a lack of consumption scenarios, with many distributors reporting high inventory levels and cash flow difficulties [7]. Group 3: Long-term Market Dynamics - The "ban on alcohol" has accelerated a structural shift in the Chinese liquor market from being driven by government consumption to being driven by mass consumer spending, which is essential for the market's long-term health and sustainability [9]. - Companies are advised to adopt pragmatic strategies during the festive consumption window, focusing on promotions and channel management to address pricing issues and rebuild a healthy market order [9].