但真正值得思考的是，为什么"超越茅台"总是被赋予如此强烈的象征意义？这恰恰说明，茅台不仅是企 业，更是投资者心中的基准点。谁能超越它，往往被解读为新秩序的到来；谁最终跌落，则印证了泡沫 的破灭。这背后，是市场长期以来缺乏真正能穿越周期、不断兑现成长的科技企业。 □徐兵 在资本市场上，"超越贵州茅台"已经成为一个特殊的符号。最近，寒武纪凭借股价的凌厉涨势，一度站 上了"第一高价股"的宝座。这既是科技股光环下的狂欢，也是一场关于市场逻辑的深刻拷问。 传统上，茅台代表着一种价值锚，象征着品牌、现金流与分红安全感。如今，寒武纪的上位，意味着资 本愿意为未来买单，甚至愿意用当下的确定性去换未来的不确定性。换言之，市场在重新分配信仰：从 看重稳健的消费，到追逐高速的科技。 寒武纪会不会成为例外？这才是市场最关心的问题。它不同于以往靠概念起舞的昙花一现，至少在业绩 上展现了增长曲线，叠加AI大势和政策红利，具备更多现实支撑。但风险依然清晰，高估值意味着容 错率极低，一旦预期兑现不及，股价回调的力度也会更剧烈。 从更宏观的角度看，寒武纪和茅台的对比，并非简单的新贵替代旧王，而是中国资本市场的自我修炼。 茅台用几十年时间告诉投 ...

Group 1 - The rise of Cambrian has led to it becoming the "first high-priced stock," symbolizing a shift in market logic from stable consumer stocks to high-growth technology stocks [2] - Moutai represents a benchmark for investors, and surpassing it is seen as a sign of a new order in the market, while falling from this position indicates a bubble's burst [2] - Cambrian's performance shows a growth curve, supported by the AI trend and policy benefits, raising questions about whether it can be an exception among tech companies [2] Group 2 - The comparison between Cambrian and Moutai reflects the self-cultivation of the Chinese capital market, with Moutai demonstrating certainty premium over decades and Cambrian attempting to establish tech growth as a new certainty [3] - If Cambrian can sustain its performance over the long term, it would signify not just a stock price miracle but also a transformation in A-share investment culture [3] - The true test for Cambrian is not just about surpassing Moutai but about maintaining its position at the peak in the long run [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rebalancing of global assets and the shift towards multi-asset allocation in response to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3][20] - Gold has emerged as a star asset with a 26% increase, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a decline in dollar credibility, alongside a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [6][24] - The bond market shows mixed signals, with US Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0% while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [7][8][19] Group 2 - The Chinese equity market has demonstrated resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound capital and narratives around AI and new consumption [12][13] - The article highlights the strong performance of the AI sector and the rapid rise of credit bond ETFs, reflecting a shift in investor preferences towards stable income assets [9][21] - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, suggesting a "barbell strategy" that balances undervalued, high-dividend stocks with growth sectors driven by AI [30][31] Group 3 - The article identifies three key underlying market logic shifts: the rising premium for certainty, the revaluation of industry narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocations [20][21][23] - The article notes that the current market environment requires investors to focus on both quantifiable certainty variables and the potential for disruptive technological breakthroughs [38][39] - The outlook for various asset classes suggests that while US equities face risks from high valuations and profit growth slowdowns, Chinese assets may benefit from their growth resilience and policy support [34][36][37]

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]