□ 美联储重启降息将从利率和经济基本面角度对美股形成提振作用，但估值偏高仍然是当前投资美股难 以回避的问题。相对而言，非美市场股票估值更具有吸引力。因此，为了规避潜在风险，全球资金在美 元资产和非美资产之间的再平衡趋势有望延续。历史经验也显示，在美元下行阶段，新兴市场的表现通 常优于发达市场，相对收益会显著提升 □ 从中国资产来看，港股有望继续受益于全球流动性转向和内地盈利拐点的双重催化。同时，当前A股 估值仍具有洼地效应，估值修复动能将与全球资产再配置需求形成共振，其中科技股有望继续受益，其 因具备高成长弹性及对流动性高度敏感，更容易吸引寻求高回报的全球资本 □ 美联储重启降息带动实际利率下行，将推动黄金期货持仓规模上升，令金价有望获得支撑。与此同 时，美元信用风险的上升，可能进一步推动全球央行储备资产再平衡 □ 与此同时，也要清醒地认识到，美联储降息周期中伴随的政策不确定性、美国经济与通胀走势反复， 以及地缘与贸易关系波动等风险仍可能通过情绪、资金流动等渠道产生外溢效应。对此，投资者应保持 战略布局思维，兼顾结构性机会与风险防范，稳健参与全球资产配置再平衡进程 美联储于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的货币 ...

今年以来全球主要资产价格表现 资料来源：彭博，中银证券 美联储于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%下调到4.0%至4.25%，降幅为25个基点，此举符合市场普遍预期。此次降息是美联储自去年9月开 启本轮降息周期，并先后于去年9月、11月和12月连续3次降息，以及从今年1月至7月，连续5次按兵不 动后，首次重启降息。 全球投资购金和央行购金量及伦敦金价走势 资料来源：世界黄金协会，伦敦金融交易所，中银证券 □ 由于美元在当前国际货币体系中占据主导地位，美联储一旦重启降息，其利率和汇率的变动将会同时 影响全球资金流动状况 □ 美联储重启降息将从利率和经济基本面角度对美股形成提振作用，但估值偏高仍然是当前投资美股难 以回避的问题。相对而言，非美市场股票估值更具有吸引力。因此，为了规避潜在风险，全球资金在美 元资产和非美资产之间的再平衡趋势有望延续。历史经验也显示，在美元下行阶段，新兴市场的表现通 常优于发达市场，相对收益会显著提升 □ 从中国资产来看，港股有望继续受益于全球流动性转向和内地盈利拐点的双重催化。同时，当前A股 估值仍具有洼地效应，估值修复动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to catalyze a global asset reallocation, impacting both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with emerging markets likely to outperform developed markets during this period [4][5][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the current cycle began in September of the previous year [4][11]. - The rate cut is anticipated to boost U.S. stock markets, although high valuations present a challenge for investors [15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically perform better than developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [4][15]. Group 2: Global Asset Reallocation - The trend of reallocating global assets has accelerated, with non-U.S. assets showing particularly strong performance; the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index has risen by 22.7% this year, compared to a 12.5% increase in the MSCI U.S. index [7][15]. - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and a potential turning point in mainland earnings [4][15]. - The A-share market is seen as having a valuation recovery potential, especially in technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity and attractive to global capital seeking high returns [4][15]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The restart of rate cuts is likely to lead to a decline in real interest rates, which may increase gold futures holdings and support gold prices [4][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [9][16]. - The dollar's dominance is under scrutiny, with a potential long-term decline in its value as political pressures on the Federal Reserve increase, impacting its international credibility [13][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is shifting, with a notable increase in concerns about inflation risks, which could destabilize market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. - The current economic policies and pressures on the Federal Reserve may lead to a loss of independence, further exacerbating the dollar's decline and affecting global capital flows [12][13]. - The potential for external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties remains a concern, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation amidst these dynamics [20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rebalancing of global assets and the shift towards multi-asset allocation in response to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3][20] - Gold has emerged as a star asset with a 26% increase, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a decline in dollar credibility, alongside a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [6][24] - The bond market shows mixed signals, with US Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0% while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [7][8][19] Group 2 - The Chinese equity market has demonstrated resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound capital and narratives around AI and new consumption [12][13] - The article highlights the strong performance of the AI sector and the rapid rise of credit bond ETFs, reflecting a shift in investor preferences towards stable income assets [9][21] - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, suggesting a "barbell strategy" that balances undervalued, high-dividend stocks with growth sectors driven by AI [30][31] Group 3 - The article identifies three key underlying market logic shifts: the rising premium for certainty, the revaluation of industry narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocations [20][21][23] - The article notes that the current market environment requires investors to focus on both quantifiable certainty variables and the potential for disruptive technological breakthroughs [38][39] - The outlook for various asset classes suggests that while US equities face risks from high valuations and profit growth slowdowns, Chinese assets may benefit from their growth resilience and policy support [34][36][37]

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]

Group 1: HIBOR Overview - HIBOR is the benchmark interest rate for interbank borrowing of Hong Kong dollars, influencing costs for loans, corporate financing, and mortgages [2] - A decline in HIBOR indicates lower funding costs for banks, reducing interest burdens for businesses and individuals, thus enhancing liquidity in the economy [2] Group 2: Reasons for HIBOR Decline - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) manages the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar, intervening to maintain the exchange rate within a narrow band [4] - Increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar due to foreign capital inflows and southbound funds has led to a significant appreciation of the currency [4] - The HKMA's actions to maintain the peg involve buying US dollars and selling Hong Kong dollars, which increases liquidity and lowers HIBOR [6] Group 3: Impact of HIBOR on Hong Kong Tech Stocks - A lower HIBOR benefits the technology sector by reducing financing costs, facilitating research and development in high-risk areas like semiconductors and AI [7] - The valuation of tech stocks, which often have long-term cash flow structures, is more sensitive to interest rate changes, leading to potential increases in their valuations as HIBOR declines [7] - The Hang Seng Tech Index focuses on companies in the AI supply chain, with over 70% of its top ten constituents related to AI, indicating a strong alignment with the current market trends [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and it is recommended to continue the previous interval trading idea [1]. - For copper, it is suggested to take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term, and there is still optimism in the medium - and long - term [1][6]. - Zinc's rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to try short positions lightly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [1][8]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin's price rebound is under pressure as supply and demand situation is not favorable [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure. Short - term long positions at low prices can be considered for Shanghai Aluminum [1][10]. - Nickel's price rebounds and then falls. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel [1][12]. - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation and is in the bottom - building stage in the medium - and long - term [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine negotiations is unclear. Gold prices are in adjustment [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US retail growth slows down, PPI drops significantly, and geopolitical issues persist. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term bull market remains [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may fluctuate after adjustment in the short term, and long - term investors should wait for stability. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8000, 8250] [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai Copper rebounds after being under pressure [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is unstable, and inventory situation is complex. There is a risk of price decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term. Be cautious about high - level decline risk. Long - term outlook is positive. Shanghai Copper focuses on the range of [77500, 79500], and London Copper focuses on [9400, 9800] USD/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc is in a volatile adjustment under upper pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc supply increases while demand weakens as the consumption off - season begins [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly at high levels in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term. Shanghai Zinc focuses on [22300, 22900], and London Zinc focuses on [2680, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure, and alumina rebounds from a low level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, but demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in excess [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices for Shanghai Aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to be stable [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel's price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases, but domestic nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory removal pressure is large [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream consumption. Nickel's main contract operates in the range of [120000, 129000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 rises and then falls, testing the support of the 5 - day moving average [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: Demand is hard to exceed expectations, and lithium price is testing cost support. Supply has no significant reduction, and inventory pressure remains [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation in the range of [63750, 65102] [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience short - term fluctuations and adjustments, but the space for significant further adjustment is limited in the long run, and it has high strategic allocation value [1]. - The silver price will likely have wide - range adjustments, and the trading should follow the previous range - bound approach [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions at high levels, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc may rebound in the short term, but there are opportunities to go short in the long term due to increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - The lead price will have a short - term rebound [1]. - The tin price will face pressure during the rebound [1]. - The aluminum price will be relatively strong in the short term [1]. - The nickel price may rebound and then fall, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The industrial silicon price will rebound from a low level, with little change in the fundamentals [1]. - The lithium carbonate price will rebound from a low level in the short term and is still in the bottom - building stage in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold was at 761.72, down 0.78% from the previous level and 3.67% from last week; COMEX gold was at 3185, down 2.14% and 4.33% respectively. The spot prices also declined [2]. - **Core Logic**: With the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks and reduced impact of tariff negotiations, the short - term upward momentum is weakened. In the long run, global asset allocation rebalancing and fiscal - monetary dual - easing trends will support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term gold market may continue to adjust, and long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering. Pay attention to the performance around 740 [4]. Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver was at 8195, down 0.61% from the previous level and 0.69% from last week; COMEX silver was at 32, down 2.07% and 0.61% respectively [2]. - **Core Logic**: The financial and commodity attributes of silver interact, and it is affected by gold and base metals [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may continue to fluctuate within the range of [8020, 8250] in the short term [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% daily. The LME copper and COMEX copper prices had different changes, and the inventory also showed various trends [5]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is troubled, and the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low. There are risks of a high - level decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on previous long positions at high levels, beware of high - level decline risks. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend. The short - term Shanghai copper range is [78000, 79500], and the LME copper range is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22800 yuan/ton, up 1.24% daily. The inventory decreased, and the spot price increased [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply will be looser. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short at high levels near the upper integer - level resistance in the short term. In the long term, take opportunities to go short when the price rises. The Shanghai zinc range is [22500, 23000], and the LME zinc range is [2750, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The LME aluminum closed at 2522.5 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20240 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The inventory decreased [10]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment has eased, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has increased, but the terminal off - season is approaching [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - term long opportunities for Shanghai aluminum at low levels, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. The alumina price will stabilize at a low level [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The LME nickel closed at 15800 dollars/ton, up 0.35%; the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 125230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The stainless - steel price also increased [12]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas environment is favorable for downstream demand. The Philippine's potential mining ban and Indonesia's royalty increase support the nickel price. The domestic inventory is relatively high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The nickel main contract operating range is [121000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 was at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13%. The trading volume decreased [14]. - **Core Logic**: With weak demand, lithium prices are testing cost support. Supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the second - quarter demand is average. Short - term rebound is due to improved market risk preference [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will rebound from a low level, with a range of [64500 - 66700] [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term tariff negotiation results lead to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment, but in the long run, the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing will support gold to continue attracting incremental funds, and the bull market is not over. Different metal varieties have different trends and investment strategies [1][3] - For gold, it is in high - level adjustment in the short - term, and has long - term strategic allocation value. For silver, it is in wide - range adjustment. For copper, it is advisable to buy on dips. For zinc, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel, their prices are expected to rebound and then fall. For industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, they are in low - level oscillations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiation, gold has a large - scale adjustment. Gold prices in both SHFE and COMEX have declined, and the gold - silver ratio has also decreased. The dollar index has risen, and the real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term factors include the better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, postponed interest - rate cut expectations, and record - high US customs tariff revenues. Long - term factors are the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term gold may continue to adjust, and pay attention to the performance around 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering the market. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8020, 8350] [3] Copper - **Market Situation**: With the rise of the dollar index, copper prices rise first and then fall. The prices of SHFE copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all declined slightly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and the processing fee of copper concentrate hits a new low. The inventory outside the US is decreasing, and there is a risk of soft squeeze in the domestic market [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and some can take profits on rallies. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [77500, 78500], and that of LME copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices rise first and then fall, showing a weak and oscillating trend. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc have declined slightly [8][9] - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, but the export of a certain mine may be postponed. The domestic production of zinc ingots in April has increased, while the downstream demand is weakening [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rallies in the short - term. In the long - term, take the opportunity to go short when the price rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [22000, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2620, 2680] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rise, and alumina rebounds from a low level. The prices of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have increased [11] - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment eases. The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the cost support is weakening [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short - term long on SHFE aluminum on dips and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19500 - 20100]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [12] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel follows the rebound trend. The prices of LME nickel, SHFE nickel, and stainless steel futures have increased [13] - **Core Logic**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel - mine royalty and the news of the Philippines' ore - ban policy support the nickel price. The domestic refined nickel production has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the terminal consumption is not optimistic [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 129000] [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The main contract LC2507 first hits a new low and then rebounds. The prices of some futures contracts and spot prices have changed slightly [15] - **Core Logic**: The market is facing the dual dilemmas of cost collapse and oversupply. The production cost of overseas mines has decreased, the supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the demand in the second quarter is average [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to rebound in the low - level range of [63300 - 65200] [16]