以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 时光飞逝，仿佛须臾之间，我们挥手作别了2025年上半年。 这半年间： 从特朗普政府的关税政策反复摇摆，到海外地缘政治争端一波未平一波又起，从DeepSeek以惊人效率突破AI算力封锁，到全球资金开始了新一轮的迁 徙，大类资产的投资图景正在经历一场悄无声息的重构。 下一站，多元资产配置——在这个经济全球化遭遇逆风、技术革命"起于青萍之末"的时代，投资者需要的不是预测风暴的能力，而是在风暴中 保持航向的定力。 01 混沌之中的上半年 ——全球资金再平衡实录 翻开大类资产上半年的成绩单，"资金盛与资产荒"精准勾勒了其间的市场底色。 海内外的流动性如同潮水，却在现实世界中似乎找不到足够的优质资产停泊。 在此背景之下，"确定性"资产迎来狂欢， 黄金 成为了明星选手。 相较于南华商品指数的整体收跌，国际现货黄金26%的涨幅背后，是地缘冲突与美元信用松动的双重叙事。 从贸易争端阴云未散，到中东局势骤然生变，黄金的避险属性被无限放大，但更深远的力量来自全球央行持续增持——预计2025年购买量将达 1000吨。中国央行更是连续第7个 ...

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

中辉有色观点 | 11 | I | 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 1 | C | 11 201 | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 俄乌谈判不顺利，关税谈判尚在进行，黄金价格短期或震荡调整，不过美通胀 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 数据低于预期，地缘问题反复，黄金价格预计继续大幅调整空间有限。关注 750 | | | | 和缺口表现。长期看，黄金是未来秩序筹码，战略配置价值高。【740-760】 | | | | 短期白银基本面与此前变化不大，关税影响各国经济，各国财政政策宽松应对 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 未来经济波动，白银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感，品种弹性大，受黄金和基 | | | | 本金属影响较大，操作上延续此前的区间思路对待。【8000-8250】 | | | | 美国经济数据展现韧性，经济衰退担忧减轻，COMEX 铜持续抽干全球铜库存，国 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 内短期软挤仓担忧缓和，高铜价抑制作用或逐渐显现，建议多单逐渐高位止盈，中 | | | | 长期依旧看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience short - term fluctuations and adjustments, but the space for significant further adjustment is limited in the long run, and it has high strategic allocation value [1]. - The silver price will likely have wide - range adjustments, and the trading should follow the previous range - bound approach [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions at high levels, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc may rebound in the short term, but there are opportunities to go short in the long term due to increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - The lead price will have a short - term rebound [1]. - The tin price will face pressure during the rebound [1]. - The aluminum price will be relatively strong in the short term [1]. - The nickel price may rebound and then fall, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The industrial silicon price will rebound from a low level, with little change in the fundamentals [1]. - The lithium carbonate price will rebound from a low level in the short term and is still in the bottom - building stage in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold was at 761.72, down 0.78% from the previous level and 3.67% from last week; COMEX gold was at 3185, down 2.14% and 4.33% respectively. The spot prices also declined [2]. - **Core Logic**: With the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks and reduced impact of tariff negotiations, the short - term upward momentum is weakened. In the long run, global asset allocation rebalancing and fiscal - monetary dual - easing trends will support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term gold market may continue to adjust, and long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering. Pay attention to the performance around 740 [4]. Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver was at 8195, down 0.61% from the previous level and 0.69% from last week; COMEX silver was at 32, down 2.07% and 0.61% respectively [2]. - **Core Logic**: The financial and commodity attributes of silver interact, and it is affected by gold and base metals [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may continue to fluctuate within the range of [8020, 8250] in the short term [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% daily. The LME copper and COMEX copper prices had different changes, and the inventory also showed various trends [5]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is troubled, and the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low. There are risks of a high - level decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on previous long positions at high levels, beware of high - level decline risks. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend. The short - term Shanghai copper range is [78000, 79500], and the LME copper range is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22800 yuan/ton, up 1.24% daily. The inventory decreased, and the spot price increased [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply will be looser. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short at high levels near the upper integer - level resistance in the short term. In the long term, take opportunities to go short when the price rises. The Shanghai zinc range is [22500, 23000], and the LME zinc range is [2750, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The LME aluminum closed at 2522.5 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20240 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The inventory decreased [10]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment has eased, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has increased, but the terminal off - season is approaching [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - term long opportunities for Shanghai aluminum at low levels, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. The alumina price will stabilize at a low level [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The LME nickel closed at 15800 dollars/ton, up 0.35%; the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 125230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The stainless - steel price also increased [12]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas environment is favorable for downstream demand. The Philippine's potential mining ban and Indonesia's royalty increase support the nickel price. The domestic inventory is relatively high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The nickel main contract operating range is [121000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 was at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13%. The trading volume decreased [14]. - **Core Logic**: With weak demand, lithium prices are testing cost support. Supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the second - quarter demand is average. Short - term rebound is due to improved market risk preference [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will rebound from a low level, with a range of [64500 - 66700] [15].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美贸易谈判大超预期，黄金价格大幅回调，短期调整还将持续，关注 750 附 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 近表现。长期看，未来全球购金力量仍较多，看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去 | | | | 美元化是主力，黄金是未来秩序筹码，长期战略配置价值持续存在。【750-786】 | | | | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台。但是白 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感，品种弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大， | | | | 操作上延续此前的高位区间思路对待。【8020-8350】 | | | | 中美会谈成果超预期，市场信心提振，风险偏好提高，铜精矿紧张持续，库存偏低， | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 短期多单部分止盈兑现，警惕交割结束后高价对铜需求抑制作用显现，回调后依旧 | | | | 可逢低试多，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77500，78500】 | | | | 锌终端需求疲软，叠加供应持续放量，锌偏弱趋势短期难以改变，建议仍然以 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to factors like potential de - dollarization and the loss of US dollar credit [1]. - Silver will experience wide - range adjustments. It is supported by potential stimulus policies but is highly elastic and affected by gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is recommended for buying on dips in the short - term, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc is advised to be sold on rallies. In the long - run, supply is increasing while demand is weak [1]. - Lead and tin prices are likely to face pressure on rebounds [1]. - Aluminum is expected to stabilize, with short - term weakness due to inventory and consumption factors [1]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, affected by cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak position in May, with supply adjustment limited and demand weak [1]. - Lithium carbonate is weak. After a decline in Chile's exports, short positions can be moderately closed, and the price has limited upward momentum [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold prices adjusted after the US - UK tariff agreement and potential progress in US - EU negotiations. Silver also showed price fluctuations [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The UK central bank cut interest rates, US employment data was stable, and inflation expectations changed. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to trade uncertainties and asset re - allocation [3]. - **策略推荐**: For gold, participate when sentiment stabilizes, and take a long - term long position starting at 780. For silver, adopt a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8380] [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper rebounded and regained the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply was disrupted, processing fees hit new lows, and domestic production decreased slightly. US copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory continued to decline, with a risk of soft squeeze [5]. - **策略推荐**: Hold short - term long positions. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper. Short - term Shanghai copper should be monitored in the range [77500, 78800], and LME copper in the range [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc continued its weak trend, with a slight rebound [7]. - **产业逻辑**: Although the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose in 2025, recent disruptions occurred. Refined zinc production increased, but downstream demand entered the off - season [7]. - **策略推荐**: With improved market sentiment and increased overseas zinc concentrate interference, zinc rebounded, but the upside is limited. Sell on rallies and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Shanghai zinc should be monitored in the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc in the range [2580, 2650] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina rebounded from a low level [9]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory increased, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, supply was in excess, and cost support decreased [10]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily observe Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19200 - 20000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [10]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [11]. - **产业逻辑**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel ore royalty supported nickel prices, but domestic inventory was high. Stainless steel inventory removal faced difficulties, and the industry was in an oversupply state [12]. - **策略推荐**: Lightly short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 127000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2507 hit a new low and then rebounded with reduced losses [13]. - **产业逻辑**: Chile's lithium salt exports decreased in April. In May, supply was sufficient, demand did not increase seasonally, and costs decreased, causing the price to test the 60,000 - yuan mark [14]. - **策略推荐**: Close short positions and observe in the range [63800 - 65200] [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Asian currencies are experiencing a strong appreciation against the US dollar, driven by factors such as improved global market risk appetite, significant holdings of dollar assets by Asian exporters and insurers, and a slowdown in the US economy [1][2][3] - The offshore RMB has seen a substantial increase, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and more than 100 basis points on May 5, reaching a five-month high [2] - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated nearly 7% against the US dollar in recent trading days, marking its highest level since February 2023 [2] Group 2 - Global investors are adjusting their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, which constitutes about one-third of their total investment portfolio [3] - The performance of US tech stocks remains robust, but many companies express concerns about future prospects, leading investors to sell off US stocks at high prices [3] - The significant drop in oil prices has reduced import costs for Asian countries, potentially expanding trade surpluses and further supporting the appreciation of Asian currencies [3][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the long-term downtrend of the US dollar is unlikely to reverse fundamentally, with weakened confidence in US assets and limited potential for dollar rebounds [4][5] - The ongoing fiscal and current account deficits in the US are seen as constraints on the dollar's strength, while foreign investors are reducing their holdings of US assets [5] - The global rebalancing of asset allocation may just be beginning, as non-US governments are likely to stimulate their economies through fiscal policies, promoting capital repatriation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 国内节日期间将继续关税谈判，关税谈判过程仍然不确定，尽管影响边际趋缓， 但购金力量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，去美元化是主力，黄金是未来 | | | | 秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 短期关税谈判使得白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，中期看不确定性较大。白银 | | | | 弹性大仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待，等待形势明朗，重新 | | | | 做金银比回归交易。【8100-8400】 | | 铜 | 空仓过节 | 五一假期，海内外多项重要宏观数据即将公布，特朗普关税表态再度强硬，大宗商 品短期承压波动。短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过 | | | | 节。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【76500，78500】 | | 锌 | 空仓过节 | 政治局会议稳字当先，政策预期落空，叠加长假临近，市场避险情绪上升，建 议空仓过节，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22000， ...