Core Viewpoint - The communication sector is experiencing revenue and net profit growth, with profitability metrics reaching new highs since 2022, driven by the burgeoning AI computing power segment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Communication Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, the A-share communication sector achieved revenue of 13,220.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, while net profit growth outpaced revenue growth at 7.66% [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the sector was 29.33%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.11 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.08%, up by 0.49 percentage points [2]. - In Q2 2025, both revenue and net profit growth rates improved compared to the same period last year, with gross and net profit margins reaching their highest levels since 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Subsector Performance - The optical module/device and connector segments showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, leading in revenue and net profit growth rates [3]. - The three major telecom operators in Hong Kong reported a 0.3% year-on-year revenue increase and a 5.1% net profit increase in the first half of 2025, although Q2 saw a slight revenue decline of 0.1% with a net profit growth of 6.0% [3]. Group 3: Institutional Holdings and Valuation - In Q2 2025, public fund holdings in the communication sector reached a record high of 3.85%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points, while northbound capital holdings also hit a record high of 2.18%, up by 0.57 percentage points [4]. - The current PE-TTM for the communication sector is 46.44, placing it at the 99.59th percentile over the past five years and the 74.54th percentile over the past ten years [4]. - The low penetration rate of AI users and the nascent stage of large model development suggest significant potential for capital expenditure growth as revenues from large models increase [4].

Group 1 - The communication sector's revenue and net profit growth have improved compared to the same period last year, with gross and net profit margins reaching new highs since 2022 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the A-share communication sector achieved revenue of 13,220.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, while net profit growth outpaced revenue growth at 7.66% [2] - The AI computing power segment is showing strong performance, with low user penetration and the industrialization cycle just beginning, indicating significant potential for capital expenditure growth [1][4] Group 2 - The optical module/device and connector segments performed well in the first half of 2025, with the highest revenue growth rates in these areas [3] - Institutional holdings in the communication sector have reached historical highs, with public fund holdings at 3.85% and northbound capital holdings at 2.18% [4] - The current PE-TTM for the communication sector is 46.44, placing it at the 99.59th percentile for the past five years and the 74.54th percentile for the past ten years [4]

主题推荐： 1 、 AI 应用。 政策引领加速产业规模化发展，看好金融 / 办公 / 游戏 / 教育等领域应用落地与智能终端产品普及。 2 、具身智能。 机器人产 业从技术探索迈向规模商用，看好受益技术升级与规模化的关键零部件与轻量化材料。 3 、新兴消费。 政策强调创新消费投资场景释放内需潜力，看好业绩 兑现度高的 IP 潮玩 / 宠物等细分赛道。 4 、高端装备。 财政发力支持设备更新带动万亿投资，新型装备展示新域新质战力，看好军工 / 半导体 / 能源电力 等领域整备升级。 报告导读： 中国转型进展加快、无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革推动下中国股市不会止 步，还会走出新高。宽松预期升温与经济能见度提高，行情扩散中盘崛起；看好港股反 弹。 大势研判：中国行情不会止步于此，未来股指还会有新高。 2025 年以来，我们看多中国的逻辑是一贯的：第一，中国转型进展加快，经济社会发展的不确定 性下降。第二，无风险利率下沉，长期资本和居民入市进入历史性转折与时代趋势。第三，资本市场改革，社会各界对中国资产的价值观念和风险认识系统性 改观，打开了资本市场发展的空间。市场也不必过虑阶段性调整： 1 ）两融规模 / 流通市值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising and reach new highs due to accelerated transformation, declining risk-free returns, and capital market reforms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to expand, with a focus on mid-cap stocks and low-priced blue-chip stocks as key drivers for the next phase of market growth [3]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the potential for sustainable growth supported by healthy market dynamics and a favorable economic environment [2]. Group 2: Investment Themes - AI applications are highlighted as a key investment theme, with significant growth expected in finance, office, gaming, and education sectors due to policy support [1][4]. - The robotics industry is transitioning from technological exploration to large-scale commercialization, with a focus on key components and lightweight materials benefiting from technological upgrades [1]. - Emerging consumption trends are emphasized, particularly in IP toys and pet-related sectors, which are expected to see high performance due to policy-driven innovation [1]. - High-end equipment sectors, including military, semiconductor, and energy, are projected to benefit from substantial fiscal support and investment in equipment upgrades [1][4]. Group 3: Sector Comparisons - New emerging technologies are identified as a primary focus, while cyclical finance is seen as a potential dark horse in the market [4]. - The financial sector, including brokers, insurance, and banks, is recommended for investment due to low valuations and potential for rebound [4]. - The market is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics for cyclical products, with recommendations for chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3784.58 points during the session, marking a 0.35% increase by the close [2] - The market saw a total turnover exceeding 1.59 trillion yuan in the first half of the trading day [2] Sector Performance - The digital currency sector experienced significant gains, driving strength in software and certain financial sectors [2] - Other sectors that saw increases include oil and gas extraction, beauty care, e-commerce, agriculture, and gaming [2] Notable Stocks - Major stocks such as ZTE Corporation (000063), North Huachuang, Muyuan Foods, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Wanhua Chemical, and Fuyao Glass showed significant upward movement [2] - ZTE Corporation surged by 6.36% with a trading volume of 16.418 billion yuan, leading the A-share market [4] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector displayed a mixed performance, with North American computing chains adjusting downwards while domestic computing concepts strengthened [4] - Notable gains were seen in stocks like Aojie Technology, Shengke Communication, and Wantong Development, with Wantong Development hitting a price limit [5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector was active, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the price limit and North Huachuang and Demingli also rising [7] State-Owned Enterprises - "State-owned enterprises" stocks performed well, with notable increases in China Oil Capital, China Software, China Rare Earth, and China CRRC [8] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, all saw gains, benefiting from stable business performance and digital transformation [10] - The oil and gas extraction sector also rose, driven by the performance of major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [10]

Investment Strategy - The report indicates that China's satellite internet is entering a phase of intensive launches, with multiple satellite constellation plans advancing. The recent successful launches by China Star Network and the procurement announcement by Yuanxin Satellite are expected to drive demand in the industry [5][12][17] - The trend of laser networking has emerged, with computational satellites expected to enhance adaptive routing algorithms. China's technology reserves are not lagging behind, and the development of adaptive routing algorithms using machine learning and AI is seen as a key area for improving network performance [5][13][20] - Infrastructure for commercial launches is becoming increasingly robust, with reusable rockets set to be tested soon. The payload capacity of some Chinese rockets is approaching that of SpaceX's Falcon 9, which may lead to a synergistic development with accelerated satellite launches [5][14][15] Industry News - China successfully launched the low Earth orbit 08 group of satellites on August 13, marking the eighth batch of the China Star Network's GW constellation. This launch demonstrates China's capability for high-frequency launches, with a nine-day interval since the last launch [5][16] - The three major telecom operators in China reported stable performance in the first half of 2025, with China Telecom's revenue reaching 271.5 billion yuan, China Unicom's at 200.2 billion yuan, and China Mobile's at 543.8 billion yuan. The growth in their second curve businesses is expected to provide ongoing growth momentum for the companies and the downstream industry [5][17] - Kyivstar, Ukraine's largest telecom operator, completed a direct device connection test with Starlink, planning to commercialize the service in Q4. This test validates the feasibility of satellite mobile connectivity services in overseas markets [5][18][19] - Major AI companies are increasing their token consumption, with OpenAI's GPT-5 and xAI's Grok 4 being made available for free to users. This trend is expected to accelerate the demand for computational power in the AI sector [5][20] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 7.11% increase this week, outperforming major indices. Key areas of growth included IDC and optical modules, with respective increases of 12.90% and 10.04% [5][21] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the satellite internet and commercial aerospace sectors, highlighting companies such as Aerospace Universe, Mengsheng Electronics, and others [5][25]

Group 1 - The communication industry is experiencing high prosperity in the first half of 2025, with significant differentiation across different sectors [1] - The computing power sector is performing exceptionally well, driven by accelerated global infrastructure construction and strong demand for 800G high-speed optical modules [1] - Leading companies in optical modules, optical devices, and optical chips are achieving both revenue and profit growth [1] Group 2 - High-end communication equipment categories, such as data center main equipment, servers, and switches, are experiencing rapid growth due to concentrated procurement from internet clients and recovery in overseas demand [1] - The operator sector maintains steady growth, with an increasing proportion of revenue from digital transformation contributing significantly to profitability [1] - The satellite sector continues to grow steadily, with emerging businesses like Beidou navigation and expansion into overseas markets serving as long-term drivers [1] Group 3 - In the Internet of Things (IoT) sector, high-performance modules and overseas IoT demand are boosting profits for leading companies [1] - Some companies in the optical fiber and cable sector are experiencing moderate performance recovery, driven by high-margin products and prominent optical devices [1] - Overall, the high prosperity in the communication industry is concentrated in core areas driven by computing power and AI, while traditional businesses are still undergoing structural adjustments, leading to a deepening differentiation pattern [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5][66]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth driven by AI infrastructure and high demand for related products, particularly in the optical communication and AI server sectors [4][66]. - Major domestic optical communication companies are seeing rapid revenue growth, with significant contributions from high-speed optical modules [2][31]. - The three major telecom operators are showing stable performance with increasing dividends, indicating a solid investment opportunity [4][42]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, with net profit rising by 38.61% [13]. - Lumentum's cloud computing and networking business grew by 66.5%, with Q4 revenue reaching $480.7 million, up 55.9% year-on-year [21][22]. - AVC's revenue for H1 2025 was 52.927 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 66.48% increase, driven by strong demand for AI server cooling and chassis products [25]. Domestic Optical Communication Companies - Huagong Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 7.629 billion yuan, up 44.66%, with net profit increasing by 44.87% [31]. - Taicheng Technology achieved a revenue of 828 million yuan in H1 2025, a 62.49% increase, with net profit rising by 118.02% [36][37]. Telecom Operators Performance - China Mobile reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5%, but net profit increased by 5.0% [48]. - China Telecom's revenue grew by 1.3% to 269.4 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 5.5% [48]. - China Unicom's revenue reached 200.2 billion yuan, up 1.5%, with net profit growing by 5.1% [48]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index rose by 7.66%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.37% [3][62]. - The optical module and device sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing infrastructure, particularly in optical communication and domestic computing sectors [4][66]. - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [4][66].

Group 1: Dividend Investment Insights - Dividend investment arises from the pursuit of safety margins in uncertain macroeconomic environments, especially as asset returns decline during economic plateau phases[2] - For equity investors, constructing a "safety margin" relies on selecting high-yield assets or "ticket assets" in undervalued areas[2] - For fixed-income investors, yield elasticity comes from the "+" in "fixed income +", traditionally achieved by increasing equity assets, including relatively low-volatility "ticket assets"[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Stock Selection - Since August 2025, insurance companies have intensified their stock purchases, with 28 instances recorded this year, including 20 in H-shares[18][20] - The pricing formula for dividend assets follows: [Dividend Yield + Earnings Certainty] ≥ [Long-term Bond Yield + Risk Premium], with market risk preference being a core influencing factor[6] - Traditional stable dividend sectors like utilities and banks maintain relatively high dividend yields, with banks showing lower EPS volatility compared to utilities[25] Group 3: Sector Performance and Rotation - The high-dividend sector has experienced rotation, with coal dividends leading in 2021, followed by operators in late 2022, and a resurgence of coal, highways, and hydropower in 2023[7][49] - By 2025, traditional dividend assets have shown a decline, with banks maintaining relative returns, while the demand for high-dividend quality and Hong Kong stocks has increased[60] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) theme is expected to benefit cyclical dividend assets, with static dividend yield representing an important valuation safety dimension[62]

Investment Strategy - China's satellite internet is entering a phase of intensive launches, with significant construction milestones approaching. The three major satellite plans are advancing, with StarNet and Yuanxin expected to drive demand in the industry chain. For instance, the China StarNet GW constellation completed its 7th launch on August 4, following two launches on July 27 and July 30, indicating a shift to a more frequent launch schedule [5][12][16] - The second half of the year will see catalysts for rocket and DTC applications, as the initial use of reusable rockets and the gradual establishment of launch sites will address infrastructure gaps. Companies like Starry Glory and Blue Arrow have announced plans to launch reusable rockets in 2025, and significant progress has been made in testing and construction of launch facilities [5][13][16] - The overseas satellite internet business is gradually achieving a closed loop, providing a feasible development path for China's satellite internet. Starlink, for example, has launched 8,046 satellites and has over 6 million active users, offering download speeds of 100 Mbps. SpaceX aims to launch its third-generation satellites by mid-2026, significantly increasing downlink and uplink capacities [5][14][15] Industry News - China successfully launched the low Earth orbit 07 group of satellites on August 4, marking the seventh batch of the China StarNet GW constellation. This launch, along with previous ones, demonstrates China's capability for high-density launches, with intervals of less than 120 hours between launches [5][16] - The Wenchang International Space City in Hainan is projected to achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan by 2027, focusing on developing a complete commercial space industry chain and enhancing launch capabilities [5][17] - Huawei announced the full open-source of its CANN ecosystem, aiming to accelerate AI innovation and development. This move is expected to enhance Huawei's competitive edge in the AI hardware market [5][18] - OpenAI released its first open-source language model, GPT-OSS, which is designed to run on consumer devices. This development is anticipated to boost the application of large models and increase demand for edge computing and inference capabilities [5][19] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 1.41% increase this week, slightly underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.11%. The satellite navigation and low-altitude economy indices showed strong performance, with increases of 7.08% and 4.78%, respectively [5][21] - Key stocks to watch in the satellite internet and commercial space chain include Aerospace Universe, Mengsheng Electronics, Tianyin Machinery, and others [5][25] - Long-term focus should include major operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as key equipment manufacturers and companies involved in satellite navigation and commercial space [5][25]