中国银河策略认为，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估值回调。但在国 内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。当前港股估值整 体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 恒生指数高开0.31%，恒生科技指数涨0.56%。科网股多数上涨，中芯国际涨超2%，京东集团、阿里巴 巴涨超1%。 关于港股后市 国泰海通海外策略团队发布研报称，外资在港股多数细分行业占主导地位，尤其是互联网、金融及大部 分消费板块;而南向在少数行业有较强话语权，如运营商、煤炭石化、军工、半导体等，近两年南向在 半导体/泛消费/泛红利行业定价权显著提升。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。 ...

中国银河策略认为，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估值回调。但在国 内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。当前港股估值整 体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 关于港股后市 华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，短期操作方向判断的关键在于市场情绪是否已经较为极致。从资金面和 华泰证券构建的港股情绪指标看还有进一步释放空间，贸易摩擦问题未来一两周演进路径方差较大，高 波动行情或仍将持续，战术性建议适度防御，推荐香港本地优质现金流资产，"TACO"交易需要分批进 行。中长期视角下，贸易问题再度降级的可能性更高，且科技主线受影响程度相对有限，在市场回调过 后仍存结构性机会。 恒生指数低开2.5%，恒生科技指数跌2.43%。科网股多数下跌，小米集团跌超4%，阿里巴巴跌超3%。 国泰海通海外策略团队发布研报称，外资在港股多数细分行业占主导地位，尤其是互联网、金融及大部 分消费板块；而南向在少数行业有较强话语权，如运营商、煤炭石化、军工、半导体等，近两年南向在 半导体/泛消费/泛红利行业定价权显著提升。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 为什么特朗普政府的关税态度会出现如此快速的软化？美国为什么很难长期坚持对其他经济体的高关税政策？归根到底，是因为美国很难长时间逆着经济规律 做事情。 所以虽然关税政策短期有很大的不确定性，但是中长期来看，沿着经济规律演绎又是相对确定的。 本次关税再起波澜，我们认为政策的纠偏其实只是时间问题，对市场的影响预计会相对可控。 从宏观视角看，本次关税冲击和4月那次相比，我们认为也需要 考虑其他几方面因素：首先，市场是有"经验"和"记忆"的。其次，中国的应对经验更丰富。此外，当前的宏观信心和预期会更强一些。 所以总结来说，我们认为，外部因素的短期波动对国内的边际影响其实没有那么大，而真正需要关注的是国内经济、政策等因素的变化。只要我们继续坚持做 正确的事，就没什么好怕的。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 【宏观】胜人者有力，自胜者强 近期美国特朗普政府又开始酝酿对一些国家挑起关税摩擦，也引起市场诸多的关注。 我们认为对于外部环境变化不需要太悲观。就像我们在去年年度展望报 告当中提到的，"胜人者有力，自胜者强"，战胜别人看起来是有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion in Q3, an increase compared to Q2 [1][2] Flow Perspective - In Q3, southbound funds continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion, which is an increase from Q2 [2] - The outflow of foreign capital has slowed down, with a cumulative net outflow of HKD 66.4 billion in Q3, marking a decrease in outflow for three consecutive quarters [2] - The proportion of southbound holdings in Hong Kong stocks has reached a new high, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect holding amount rising from 20.7% at the end of Q2 to 21.8% at the end of Q3 [2] Industry Perspective - In Q3, the main inflows from southbound funds were into consumer discretionary, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, while software and hardware saw net outflows in Q2 [3] - Foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors [3] - Southbound funds have gained significant pricing power in sectors such as semiconductors, general consumption, and general dividends over the past two years [3]

当下如何看港股红利资产 20250921 摘要 港股红利资产企业多为成熟期企业，财务结构稳健，依赖内生融资，净 负债与 EBITDA 比值及资本开支与折旧摊销比值较低，扩张意愿不强。 港股红利资产成分构成与 A 股存在差异，除银行等金融板块外，还包括 三大运营商、商业地产等独特资产，为投资者提供了更多选择。 港股红利资产整体估值低于 A 股，现金分红比例更高，在银行、石化、 煤炭等行业中，港股的 PE、PB 均相对更低，具备估值优势。 港股拥有更多高息个股，以 5%股息率为例，高息个股在港股中的占比 接近 40%，而 A 股仅为 16%，为追求稳定收益的投资者提供了更多机 会。 在弱势市场环境下，港股红利资产具有防御属性，市场由强转弱时，恒 生高息率指数获得正超额收益的概率较高，例如在港股市场大跌环境下， 该指数获得正超额收益的概率超过 82%。 港股红利资产对美债利率更为敏感，在美债利率下行阶段，高股息率的 港股红利资产可能被视为美债替代品，上涨弹性相对于 A 股更大。 当前市场震荡波动加大，国内基本面修复仍有波折，港股红利资产性价 比相对 A 股更高，且随着岁末年初临近及海外流动性转向，港股红利资 产有望 ...

Core Insights - The optical module industry is experiencing strong performance driven by the rapid development of AI technology, leading to sustained growth in demand for optical modules [1] - The three major telecom operators have stable industry revenues and improved cost control capabilities, with AI also boosting cloud revenue [1] - The rapid development of commercial aerospace in China is expected to create opportunities in the satellite internet sector [1] Telecom Industry - In the first half of 2025, 92 tracked telecom companies achieved total revenue of 12,959.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.16% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,372.77 billion yuan, up 7.79% year-on-year [1] - The industry gross margin was 29.46%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.59%, up 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [1] Operators - The three major operators generated revenue of 10,133.93 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 0.33% [2] - Their net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,136.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.14% [2] - Cloud business revenue for the three operators reached 151 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] Optical Communication - The optical communication sector is benefiting from the growth in AI technology and increasing computing power demand, leading to stable growth in demand for high-speed optical devices [2] - Eleven tracked optical communication companies achieved total revenue of 449.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies was 96.76 billion yuan, up 124.91% year-on-year [2] Satellite Internet - Ten tracked satellite internet companies reported total revenue of 125.90 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.77% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.27 billion yuan, down 56.59% year-on-year [3] - The government report emphasizes the safe and healthy development of commercial aerospace, indicating a new phase of large-scale application [3] Communication Equipment Manufacturers - Eleven tracked communication network equipment and device companies achieved total revenue of 915.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.77% [3] - The rapid development of AI is expected to create additional demand for these companies [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed structural activity driven by policy expectations and technology themes, with the Wind All A index rising by 2.12% from September 8 to September 12, and the Sci-Tech 50 leading with a 5.48% increase, indicating strong market preference for technology growth sectors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.52%, the Shenzhen Index by 2.65%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.10% during the same period [1] - The communication sector performed notably due to increased demand for optical devices and higher capital expenditures from operators, while the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined by 0.64%, reflecting market concerns over deepening centralized procurement policies and risks in innovative drug development [1] Industry Performance - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry indices was 2.05%, with 90% of the Wind Top 100 concept indices rising [1][12] - All sectors except for biomedicine saw positive performance, with communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and electronics sectors rising by 5.24%, 5.00%, and 4.93% respectively [1][12] - The real estate, machinery, and construction materials sectors experienced slight increases, while the oil, petrochemical, and coal sectors lagged, with increases of only 0.30% and 0.16% respectively [1][12] Fund Issuance - A total of 39 funds were issued last week, including 18 equity funds, 13 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 3 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 21.794 billion units [2][14] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.17%, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 2.13% and the mixed equity fund index by 2.40%, while the bond fund index fell by 0.06% [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - The communication sector is experiencing revenue and net profit growth, with profitability metrics reaching new highs since 2022, driven by the burgeoning AI computing power segment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Communication Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, the A-share communication sector achieved revenue of 13,220.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, while net profit growth outpaced revenue growth at 7.66% [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the sector was 29.33%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.11 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.08%, up by 0.49 percentage points [2]. - In Q2 2025, both revenue and net profit growth rates improved compared to the same period last year, with gross and net profit margins reaching their highest levels since 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Subsector Performance - The optical module/device and connector segments showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, leading in revenue and net profit growth rates [3]. - The three major telecom operators in Hong Kong reported a 0.3% year-on-year revenue increase and a 5.1% net profit increase in the first half of 2025, although Q2 saw a slight revenue decline of 0.1% with a net profit growth of 6.0% [3]. Group 3: Institutional Holdings and Valuation - In Q2 2025, public fund holdings in the communication sector reached a record high of 3.85%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points, while northbound capital holdings also hit a record high of 2.18%, up by 0.57 percentage points [4]. - The current PE-TTM for the communication sector is 46.44, placing it at the 99.59th percentile over the past five years and the 74.54th percentile over the past ten years [4]. - The low penetration rate of AI users and the nascent stage of large model development suggest significant potential for capital expenditure growth as revenues from large models increase [4].

Group 1 - The communication sector's revenue and net profit growth have improved compared to the same period last year, with gross and net profit margins reaching new highs since 2022 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the A-share communication sector achieved revenue of 13,220.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, while net profit growth outpaced revenue growth at 7.66% [2] - The AI computing power segment is showing strong performance, with low user penetration and the industrialization cycle just beginning, indicating significant potential for capital expenditure growth [1][4] Group 2 - The optical module/device and connector segments performed well in the first half of 2025, with the highest revenue growth rates in these areas [3] - Institutional holdings in the communication sector have reached historical highs, with public fund holdings at 3.85% and northbound capital holdings at 2.18% [4] - The current PE-TTM for the communication sector is 46.44, placing it at the 99.59th percentile for the past five years and the 74.54th percentile for the past ten years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, driven by accelerated transformation, declining risk-free returns, and capital market reforms, with a focus on mid-cap and low-priced blue-chip stocks for future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The Chinese market is anticipated to reach new highs, supported by reduced uncertainty in economic and social development, and a historical shift in capital inflow from residents [1][2]. - The current market environment shows no signs of overheating, with margin trading levels and overall valuation remaining at historical averages [1][2]. - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide opportunities for the People's Bank of China to implement monetary easing and restart government bond trading [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - There is an expected expansion in market styles, with increased allocations to mid-cap stocks and low-priced blue-chip stocks, as traditional industries stabilize and policy interventions reduce risks [2]. - The focus on domestic demand and innovation in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the visibility of long-term economic stability [2]. - The diversification of market participants and investment logic suggests that the market will not be limited to small-cap stocks, with mid-cap and quality blue-chip stocks likely to drive the next phase of market growth [2]. Group 3: Sector Recommendations - Emerging technology remains a key focus, while cyclical financial sectors are seen as potential dark horses, with a positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks [3]. - Recommendations include financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and banking, as well as new technology trends and consumer demand in AI applications, internet, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]. - The improvement of supply-demand dynamics in cyclical goods is anticipated, with recommendations for sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and real estate [3]. Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to accelerate due to policy support, with a focus on finance, office, gaming, and education sectors [4]. - The robotics industry is transitioning from technological exploration to large-scale commercialization, highlighting opportunities in key components and lightweight materials [4]. - New consumption trends are emphasized, with a focus on high-performance IP toys and pet-related sectors, driven by policy support for innovative consumption [4]. - High-end equipment sectors are expected to benefit from fiscal support for equipment upgrades, particularly in military, semiconductor, and energy sectors [4].