银河期货 / 研究所 ◇ 航运研发报告 航运及碳排放日报 2026年3月2日 航运及碳排放日报 研究员: 贾瑞林 朗货从亚证号: F3084078 投资咨询证号: Z0018656 -部分 集装箱航运 -- 集运指数 (欧线) 第一 | 银 河 期 货 集 运 指 数 （ 欧 线 ） 日 报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 幅 | 成交量(手) | 増 減 幅 | 持 仓 量 (手 | 増 減 幅 | | EC2604 | 1,429.2 | 204.8 | 16.73% | 81,309.0 | 153.59% | 46,243.0 | 24.16% | | EC2605 | 1,637.4 | 232.3 | 16.53% | 2,063.0 | 1189.38% | 1,294.0 | 212.56% | | EC2606 | 1,885.1 | 255.5 | 15.68% | 16,174.0 | 256. ...

2月28日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2026年3月复旦碳价指数结果。此 次公布了2026年3月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2026年12月全国CEA价格指数、2026年3月全 国CCER价格指数以及2026年3月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 2月全国碳市场价稳量缩，全球主要碳市场成交量整体下跌 在发布环节，研究中心总结了2月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 79.57元/吨，相较于1月的日均收盘价77.76元/吨上涨约2.33%。本月碳价整体呈现高位窄幅震荡的特 征，节前市场在76至81元/吨之间波动，2月9日曾单日上涨5.81%至80.56元/吨，显示部分企业在节前仍 有配额调整需求；节后恢复交易后价格稳定在81元/吨附近，未出现大幅波动。 第二，成交量方面，受春节假期影响，本月碳配额日均成交量为24.57万吨，相较1月的54.68万吨大幅缩 水约55%。尽管整体成交规模明显收缩，月内仍出现单日放量情形，如2月6日和9日成交量均超过53万 吨，反映节前部分企业仍在进行配额调整或策略性布局。整体来看，2月市场呈现"价稳量缩"的节日特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market's carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. The average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances in the past 30 trading days was 145.2 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.7 million tons, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [1][55]. - As of January 27, 2026, the quotation of 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month and 77 yuan/ton lower than the end of 2024. During the peak winter period, the supply and demand of thermal coal are strong, but the market expects long - term looseness. Downstream users are still cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain in a narrow range in February, and may weaken after the Spring Festival [1][55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, the national carbon market operated smoothly and orderly, with steadily increasing market vitality. The carbon - reduction awareness of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market continued to strengthen, and the quota settlement completion rate remained at a high level. The support area of the voluntary greenhouse gas emission - reduction trading market was further expanded, and the market expanded rapidly. The total number of key emission units under quota management was 3378, including 2087 in the power generation industry, 232 in the steel industry, 962 in the cement industry, and 97 in the aluminum smelting industry. The market operated for 243 trading days. The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in 2025 was 235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 24%, and the trading volume was 14.63 billion yuan. The trading price remained in a reasonable range [7]. - In 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission will fully implement the dual control of carbon emission总量 and intensity. It will strengthen work measures in energy transformation, industrial upgrading, comprehensive conservation, and scientific assessment. It will develop non - fossil energy, build a new power system, promote industrial upgrading, implement a comprehensive conservation strategy, and establish a scientific assessment system [10][11][12]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment carried out climate change response actions, promoted the coordinated progress of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and accelerated the green and low - carbon transformation. In 2026, it will actively respond to climate change, strengthen ecological environment law enforcement supervision, and improve the adaptability to climate change [13][15][16]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 141.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.4 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [17]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - There is a certain correlation between the carbon emission market and the energy market. When energy demand is strong and energy prices rise, the demand for carbon emission allowances also increases, and a stronger carbon price promotes corporate low - carbon emission reduction. As of January 27, 2026, the port prices of thermal coal at different calorific values and the pit - mouth prices in some regions have changed compared to the end of last month and the end of 2024. The coke price has decreased, and the natural gas price has increased [20][21][22]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas nationwide was 388 billion cubic meters, 570 million cubic meters less than the same period last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 454.5211 million tons, 15.4757 million tons less than the same period last year; from January to December 2025, the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the same period last year [2][32][56]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure - China's total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about one - third of global carbon emissions. In 2021, the largest carbon - emitting industry was the "production and supply of electricity, steam, and hot water" with 5.253 billion tons, accounting for 50.72%. By energy type, coal - related energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions in 2021, accounting for 67.2% of the total [38][40][45]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 10.3682 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the third industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry was in line with China's economic structural transformation [47]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The proportion of clean energy power generation in December was 32.3%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises had a year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the power industry's development model and accelerating the low - carbon transformation of the power system [52][53]. 3.4 Conclusion - The situation of the national carbon market CEA price and trading volume is the same as the core viewpoints. The energy price, energy consumption, and power - related data are also consistent with the previous analysis [55][56][57].

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has established the world's largest clean electricity supply system and clean steel production system, along with the largest carbon emission trading market globally [1][3]. Group 1 - China has achieved a penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3]. - The clean transportation ratio in key regions and industries has reached 78% [3]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission quotas is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [3]. Group 2 - A national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has been initiated [3]. - The country is leading the establishment of a product carbon footprint management system [3]. - The implementation of the "National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035" has been issued to continuously enhance climate resilience in key areas and sectors [3].

Group 1 - The national carbon market in China has seen a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025 [1] - The number of key emission units included in the national carbon market is 3,378, with the power generation sector having the highest representation at 2,087 units [1] - The trading volume for 2025 is projected to reach 235 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The development and release of methodologies for voluntary greenhouse gas reduction projects are accelerating, with 12 methodologies published, including oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration [2] - As of December 31, 2025, there are 33 registered voluntary reduction projects with a total reduction volume of 17.7637 million tons [2] - The cumulative transaction volume of certified voluntary reduction amounts is 9.2194 million tons, with a transaction value of 650 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - Germany's carbon trading revenue is expected to exceed €21.4 billion in 2025, marking a historical high [1] - All funds generated will be allocated to the Climate and Transformation Fund to support energy transition efforts [1] - Since the initiation of carbon trading in 2008, Germany's total revenue from this scheme has surpassed €100 billion [1] Emission Reduction Trends - The pace of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Germany is slowing down [1] - In 2025, Germany's emissions are projected to be 640 million tons of CO2 equivalent, which represents a 49% decrease compared to 1990 levels [1] - However, the year-on-year reduction rate is only 1.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese carbon market is entering a new phase of rapid development, becoming a crucial mechanism for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with plans for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][6]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market is expected to cover major emission sectors, while the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market aims for full coverage in key areas [1][5]. - The carbon market has been established as an important policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green transition in economic and social development [1][6]. - As of March this year, the carbon emission trading market has expanded to include four industries: power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, covering over 3,500 key emission units and managing more than 60% of national carbon emissions [2][6]. Group 2: Data Quality and Market Functionality - Data quality is emphasized as critical for the carbon market, with a long-term mechanism for data quality management established to enhance corporate carbon emission accounting capabilities [2][6]. - The carbon market is seen as injecting new momentum into the development of green and low-carbon industries, creating new market opportunities [2][6]. - There is a growing awareness in society regarding the costs of carbon emissions and the benefits of carbon reduction, highlighting the market's role in this shift [2][6]. Group 3: Future Plans and International Cooperation - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to accelerate the construction of the national carbon market and strengthen the connection with the dual control system for emissions [3][7]. - Plans include enriching the trading entities in the carbon market and enhancing market transaction supervision [3][7]. - The government aims to engage in international cooperation across multiple fields and channels to build a more effective and influential carbon market, contributing to global climate governance [3][7].

Core Insights - The national carbon market's comprehensive price on November 28 was 59.65 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.93% from the previous day [1][3] - The total transaction volume for carbon emission allowances today was 2,183,525 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 131.1 million yuan [1][6] - Cumulative transaction volume from January 1 to November 28, 2025, reached 187,414,557 tons, with a total value of approximately 11.54 billion yuan [7][11] - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market was 817,683,221 tons, with a total value of approximately 54.58 billion yuan [8][11] Daily Trading Summary - Today's opening price was 60.11 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 60.11 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 58.80 yuan/ton [1][3] - The trading volume for the day included 684,373 tons in the listed agreement trading and 1,499,152 tons in bulk agreement trading [1][5] - There were no single-direction auctions conducted today [1][5] Weekly Overview - The weekly comprehensive price range was between 65.42 yuan/ton (highest) and 58.80 yuan/ton (lowest), with a closing price drop of 8.61% compared to the previous Friday [4][10] - The total weekly transaction volume was 10,048,199 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 585.29 million yuan [6][11] Monthly Performance - The monthly comprehensive price range recorded a highest price of 70.14 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 51.54 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 14.80% compared to the last trading day of the previous month [11][12] - The total monthly transaction volume was 47,753,225 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 2.76 billion yuan [11][12]

Group 1 - The national carbon emissions trading market has completed its institutional framework and is now in a stable and effective operational phase, marking a new stage in its development [1][4] - As of October 28, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 760 million tons, with a total transaction value of 51.44 billion yuan, indicating the gradual effectiveness of the price "guiding role" [2] - The inclusion of key emission units, approximately 1,500 new entities, will enable effective control over more than 60% of the national carbon emissions [2] Group 2 - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has been actively promoting trading since its launch in January last year, enhancing the participation capacity and low-carbon reduction awareness among market entities [6] - The upcoming 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference aims to achieve positive outcomes, emphasizing the necessity of collective climate action and international cooperation [7] - China will adhere to the principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, advocating for developed countries to fulfill their climate obligations while balancing negotiations on mitigation, adaptation, funding, technology, and capacity building [9]

Group 1 - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has established a basic framework over the past four years, with stable and effective market operations, marking a new phase in its development [1][3] - As of October 28, 2025, a total of 760 million tons of carbon emission allowances have been traded, generating a transaction value of 51.44 billion yuan, indicating the gradual emergence of a price "guiding role" [1] - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are continuously being integrated into the national carbon emissions trading market, with approximately 1,500 new key emission units added, which will effectively manage over 60% of the national carbon emissions [1] Group 2 - The voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market in China has been operational since January of last year, with active trading of reduction volumes, demonstrating the market's role in incentivizing low-cost greenhouse gas reduction actions across various industries [5] - The capacity of market participants and awareness of low-carbon reduction have significantly improved, reflecting the effectiveness of the market mechanism [5] Group 3 - China aims to promote positive outcomes at the upcoming 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, emphasizing that no country can remain isolated in the face of the climate crisis [6][7] - The country will adhere to the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, advocating for the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" [9] - China calls for developed countries to fulfill their obligations regarding climate change while balancing negotiations on mitigation, adaptation, funding, technology, and capacity building [9]