智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，宽基ETF拋售潮和国际金银价格巨震后，市场情绪 明显降温，短期市场面临回调压力，不过全A指数调整空间有限，且有望在春节前企稳，春节前后迎来 新一轮上行行情。行业配置上长期继续看好"科技+资源品"双主线。短期市场风格轮动加速，前期已有 回调的科技赛道、金融板块和中游制造业短期有望表现较好。行业重点关注：电力设备(储能、特高 压、光伏、固态电池等)、非银金融、银行、AI(光通信、存储等)、煤电、家电、汽车、钢铁等。 金银巨震的背后，"弱美元交易"止盈离场 1月30日，由于国际贵金属价格剧烈波动和A股宽基ETF近期大规模的抛售导致的流动性压力，情绪指数 出现明显下滑，发出右侧卖出信号且面临跌出亢奋区考验。考虑到春节前避险情绪升温，情绪指数回落 的季节性效应，我们预计市场短期面临情绪降温和指数回调压力。综合考虑当前市场增量资金和情绪指 数各分项指标，我们预计全A指数调整空间有限，且有望在春节前企稳，春节前后迎来新一轮上行行 情。 看好春季行情继续演绎，一季度增量资金较为充裕，随着宽基ETF抛售潮逐步结束，市场增量资金有望 明显改善。同时近期政策利好(战略投资制度新规)和 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden shift in style and risk appetite, with major indices turning from gains to losses, particularly the ChiNext index which fell nearly 1% [2] - The number of rising stocks decreased to less than 2000, indicating a market shift towards defensive positions [2] Risk Appetite Changes - There was a notable increase in risk aversion as geopolitical risks intensified and the US dollar index fell sharply, leading to significant gains in gold and silver futures [2][5] - Popular stocks collectively plummeted, with satellite ETFs dropping nearly 5%, indicating a retreat from speculative trading [2] Sector Performance - Downward pressure was evident in sectors such as semiconductor chips, commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with nearly 4000 stocks declining and 17 stocks hitting the daily limit down [4] - Conversely, precious metals surged, with silver futures reaching a limit up with a 17% increase, and gold prices exceeding $5088.39 per ounce, reflecting a strong performance in the precious metals sector [4] Capital Flow Dynamics - Recent weeks saw approximately 450 billion yuan in outflows from stock ETFs, with significant outflows from broad-based ETFs, while thematic ETFs related to TMT and cyclical resources saw inflows of around 500 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan respectively [7] - The market is characterized by a recovery in confidence, particularly in sectors that are relatively undervalued and can articulate a clear investment thesis [7] Policy and Market Sentiment - The overall policy tone since September 24 remains positive, with recent measures aimed at controlling market pace rather than altering the fundamental bullish trend [8] - The current market is noted for its slow upward trajectory, with a focus on "technology + resource products" as the main investment themes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that A-shares are expected to see significant incremental capital in 2026, potentially sustaining a slow bull market [1][5] Group 1: Long-term Capital - Long-term capital is identified as a core source of incremental funds, with insurance premium income continuing to grow significantly, leading to an increase in equity allocation to 15.5% by Q3 2025, close to historical highs [2] - The combination of insurance and wealth management channels is expected to contribute over 900 billion yuan in long-term capital to the market in 2026 [2] Group 2: Public Fund Capital - The pressure for fund redemptions is believed to have passed, with public funds benefiting from net asset value recovery and a positive investment sentiment, leading to an expected net inflow of 230 billion yuan in 2026, primarily from passive funds [3] Group 3: Other Funding Channels - "National team" funds are expected to see a significant slowdown in inflows, with a projected net inflow of about 20 billion yuan in 2026, while ETFs are becoming the main allocation channel [4] - Margin trading and private equity funds remain active, with expected net inflows of 450 billion yuan from margin trading and a projected increase in private equity scale to 8.5 trillion yuan, contributing around 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [4] - Foreign capital is entering a "4.0 era," with global funds expected to strategically allocate to Chinese assets, anticipating a net inflow of about 100 billion yuan from northbound capital [4] Group 4: Market Focus in 2026 - The focus of the market in 2026 will shift towards verifying economic conditions and performance realization, with long-term capital providing a safety net and active funds reinforcing a "technology + resource" dual mainline market trend [5] - The current hot sectors in A-shares are awaiting performance realization, with thematic concepts and rebound sectors showing significant elasticity [5]