在《26年牛市的变与不变-20260103》中我们指出，随着基本面的修复由点至面扩散，配合居民资金进 一步入市，A股牛市将在2026年走向后半场。对此，我们围绕2026年牛市的驱动力及重点关注领域分别 展开系列深度研究。本篇是系列报告的第一篇，我们重点聚焦于本轮A股上行的重要动力之一：微观资 金面。 2024年924牛市启动后，投资者的信心及风险偏好持续得到修复，2025年A股赚钱效应进一步加强，上 证指数时隔逾十年时间再次站上4000点。回过头来看，2025年的牛市背后的重要驱动力之一是投资者微 观资金的持续入市。回顾2025年，究竟哪类资金推动市场走高？展望2026年，A股市场还有多少增量资 金可以期待？我们将在下文展开分析。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 荀玉根思考 核心结论：①25年A股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃资金成为主要入市力量，险 资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部 分居民风险偏好自低位逐渐修复，26年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25年宏微观背景与20年 均具有一定相似 ...

A 股增量资金空间测算：居民存款与机构资金潜力展望 20260108 摘要 预计 2026 年居民存款搬家规模达 1-4 万亿，年度流入股市资金约 1 万 亿，存款搬家通过提升 M2 增速，为股市提供增量资金。 保险资金是长期稳定投资来源，2025 年三季度人身险和财产险公司权 益资产配置显著增加，预计每年将有超过 1 万亿的新保险资金流入股市。 私募、公募基金及 ETF 发展迅速，ETF 因其灵活性和低成本吸引大量投 资者，预计这些领域仍有较大扩展空间，将持续为股市提供可观的增量 资金支持。 A 股市场有望走出慢牛行情，长线资金逐步配置权益资产，政策导向倾 向于慢牛，预计 2025 年主要依赖科技和新消费板块，2026 年可能是 制造业公司。 2025 年三季度保险资金加仓电子、有色等科技股，存量部分仍以金融 股为主，预计未来几年内，保险机构可能有大几千亿到 1 万亿以上的资 金等待入市。 Q&A 未来 A 股市场的增量资金空间如何测算？ 保险资金对股票市场有何影响？ 保险资金作为长期稳定的投资来源，是推动中长期资本入市的重要力量。从 2024 年至 2025 年间，保险公司的保费收入保持稳定，但其运用余额 ...

策略专题 入市增量资金有望超两万亿——2026 年牛市展望系列 1 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自私募和融资交易等活跃资金。一方面杠 杆资金 ...

【 公司点睛 】 居民端的支撑因素：险资与监管对于下行风险的兜底、居民资产负债表的影响在逐步降低、居民资金2026年进一步活期化、这一轮与 股票竞争存款的高收益资产所剩无几。 外资端的支撑因素： 全球资金"总蛋糕"有望进一步变大、美元下行压力、A股基本面有望在2026年筑底改善。 广发证券策略刘晨明分析，2025年A股增量资金叙事为：监管与险资遏制指数下行风险，国内存款搬家与海外美元溢出资金打开指数上 行空间。 展望202 6年，更像是加强版的2025年：险资与监管的兜底大概率延续，而居民存款搬家（尤其是中高净值人群）与外资入市更值得期 待。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 原标题：【广发策略】中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 一、2025年：监管与险资有效兜底，但场外资金流入仍处早期 2025年，A股增量资金最好的叙事是"上行收益和下行风险不对称"——监管与险资遏制指数下行风险， 国内存款搬家与海外美元溢出资金打开指数上行空间。（我们在6、7月份的两篇报告《市场不缺钱》 《下行风险和上行收益不对称》有更详细的讨论） 但从全年的实际情况看，我们更能观察到下行风险有限（险资与监管兜底），而场外资金的流入却仍处 在风偏修复的早期阶段（存量资金加仓，居民、外资入市仍缓）。 监管与险资有效托底，兜住市场下行风险。本轮监管对于资本市场的态度回温，从体感上，我们能明显 感觉到调控的柔韧性上升，相较于2024年的资金"将信将疑"，当下市场资金对于"下有底"的一致预期越 来越强，甚至也主动成为左侧托底的合力。 （1）城镇储户的投资意愿自2024Q3以来明显回暖，但绝对水平仍处低位； 险资对于A股的配置需求同样增加，从仓位看，险资的仓位在2025Q3已经来到15.5%，创有数据以来的 历史次高（仅 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势 ——2026 年 A 股增量资金展望 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | | 021-38003559 | | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 杨清源 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a significant shift in the investment behavior of insurance funds, which are becoming a new source of long-term capital for the A-share market, driven by regulatory changes and a declining interest rate environment [2][24]. Group 1: Changes in Insurance Fund Investment - Insurance funds are experiencing a directional adjustment, with over 1 trillion yuan added to stock investments this year [2][12]. - Recent regulatory adjustments have lowered the "invisible costs" associated with insurance funds entering the stock market, making it more attractive for them to invest [2][10]. - The adjustment in risk factors for long-term holdings in major indices indicates a clearer path for insurance funds to allocate capital [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Changes - The risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 index has been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][5]. - Lower risk factors mean that insurance companies need to set aside less capital for potential losses, effectively reducing their internal cost of investment [10][11]. - This reduction in "invisible burden" is expected to increase the potential investment space for insurance funds [11][32]. Group 3: Future Investment Potential - By the end of Q3 2025, the direct stock holdings of insurance funds are projected to increase from 2.43 trillion yuan to 3.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in investment activity [12][33]. - If the investment ratio of stocks and funds by life insurance companies increases from 15% to 30%, the potential additional investment could reach approximately 3.2 trillion yuan [39]. - Regulatory proposals suggest that from 2025, large state-owned insurance companies will allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments, potentially adding around 2 trillion yuan to the market by 2026 [40].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the macroeconomic landscape [2][4] - It highlights the expected changes in dollar liquidity and the reasons behind the recent strength of the Renminbi [4][5] - The article emphasizes the anticipated shift in global liquidity favoring AH shares and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, alongside the potential for a bull-bear transition in the US stock market [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis includes projections for the agricultural product market, questioning whether a global upcycle is beginning and identifying trading opportunities in grains, oils, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [10] - It estimates that the reallocation of household assets could bring approximately 5.4 to 12.0 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market by 2030 [12] - The potential incremental funds from insurance capital entering the A-share market are projected to be around 6.0 to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to gradually emerge from a structural "slow bull" market, with potential liquidity support from resident deposits and institutional funds in the medium to long term [3][18] - By 2030, the reallocation of resident assets is projected to bring in approximately CNY 5.4 to 12.0 trillion into the market, with contributions from deposit "migration" estimated at CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion and asset reallocation contributing CNY 1.9 to 5.7 trillion [3][7] - Insurance funds are expected to cumulatively increase their allocation to stocks and funds by about CNY 4.5 to 6.5 trillion over the next nine quarters [3][8] Group 2 - The potential "migration" space for resident deposits in China by 2030 is estimated to be between CNY 15.1 trillion and 24.0 trillion, based on different GDP growth scenarios and historical deposit decline rates [6][30] - The report outlines two scenarios for deposit migration: a rapid transfer scenario (2013Q1-2015Q2) leading to an upper limit of CNY 23.8 to 24.0 trillion, and a moderate transfer scenario (2020Q2-2021Q4) resulting in a lower limit of CNY 15.1 to 15.2 trillion [6][31] - The potential incremental funds from resident asset reallocation to the A-share market could range from CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion under different scenarios of deposit migration [7][34] Group 3 - The report estimates that by 2026, the potential incremental funds for the A-share market could be around CNY 6.0 to 9.6 trillion, with contributions from various channels including the primary market, active funds, private equity, and ETF funds [9][20] - The primary market is projected to contribute approximately CNY 347.2 to 559.4 billion, while private equity funds could contribute CNY 1.25 to 2.32 trillion, and ETF funds could add CNY 2.61 to 3.95 trillion [9][20] - The current margin balance as a percentage of the circulating market value remains healthy, indicating further potential for leverage funds to be released [9][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent influx of incremental funds into the A-share market, highlighting the active participation of institutional investors compared to retail investors, and the overall market sentiment towards potential growth opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Participation - Recent grassroots research indicates a moderate increase in retail investor accounts, primarily among younger generations, but no significant surge in online account openings has been observed [4][5]. - The current participation level of retail investors is estimated at around 120 points on a scale where last year's peak was 200-300 points, indicating a cautious approach rather than a rush to enter the market [4][5]. - Overall, retail investor enthusiasm remains subdued, with new account openings in July at 1.96 million, similar to April levels, suggesting a lack of concentrated inflow from outside investors [5][6]. Group 2: Active Funds Driving the Market - Institutional investors are identified as the main drivers of recent market uptrends, with a notable increase in institutional account openings compared to retail accounts [7][8]. - High-net-worth investors, including private equity and leveraged funds, are actively participating, with daily inflows of leveraged funds averaging 5.5 billion since July [7][8]. - The private equity sector has seen significant growth, with an average stock long position of 61.1% in June, reflecting increased confidence and investment activity [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with global hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks, primarily driven by long positions [9][10]. - South Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in Chinese stocks, with cumulative transactions reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing last year's total [9][10]. - Despite growing interest, there remains a divergence in foreign investors' strategies regarding Chinese assets, with some expressing caution despite increased attention [9][10].