智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，据预测，25年9月重点跟踪的8个必选消费行业中5个保持正 增长，3个负增长。个位数增长的行业包括速冻食品、软饮料、调味品、啤酒和餐饮；下降的行业包括 次高端及以上白酒、大众及以下白酒和乳制品。与上月相比，5个行业增速改善，3个变差。双节前消费 和备货意愿不强，节后统计数据也显示商品消费弱于服务消费(国家税务总局数据显示增速分别为3.9% 和7.6%，整体增速4.5%)。 乳制品：9月国内乳制品行业收入为455亿元，同比下滑4.6%。1-9月累计收入为3531亿元，同比下滑 1.2%。乳制品需求仍然承压，礼赠市场表现不佳，经销商中秋国庆双节备货意愿谨慎。同时我们在九 月价格月报中也观察到乳制品线上零售价折扣率再次加大，价格竞争现象仍然较多。 速冻食品：9月国内速冻行业收入为78亿元，同比增长4.0%，1-9月累计收入805亿元，同比增长1.7%。 3Q25速冻食品需求整体表现平稳，9月为迎接双节，餐饮渠道纷纷备货，从而拉动对速冻食品的需求增 长，环比需求出现改善。进入下半年高基数影响逐渐消化。龙头企业各自调整策略争取全年增长。 软饮料：9月国内软饮料行业收入为663亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer industry is showing signs of recovery, with some Hong Kong-listed consumer companies experiencing a revaluation of their stocks, particularly Nongfu Spring, which has seen its stock price increase by over 100% since September of last year, reaching a market capitalization of over 550 billion HKD [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The recovery signals are evident, with Nongfu Spring's stock price only 15% away from its historical high, indicating that the market is likely to provide a correct pricing for the company [6]. - Unlike previous phases of broad consumer growth, market differentiation is becoming the norm, especially in the restaurant sector, where leading brands like Haidilao are still struggling, while second-tier brands like Jiumaojiu and Xiaobai are facing significant declines [6][7]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The enthusiasm for hot pot consumption is declining, and there are noticeable shifts in consumer preferences within the restaurant industry. Essential consumer markets, such as packaged water and condiments, are showing stronger resilience against economic cycles [7]. - Haidilao, known as the "sauce king," reported a revenue of 15.229 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 3.914 billion CNY, up 13.35% [8][10]. Group 3: Company Developments - Haidilao's stock price has rebounded from its lows, with its actual controller holding 35.99% of the shares, valued at over 87 billion CNY [11][12]. - The company has undergone significant changes, including leadership transitions and a push for internationalization, with its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange attracting nearly 4.7 billion HKD from eight cornerstone investors [18][19]. - Haidilao aims to transform from a soy sauce leader to a comprehensive cooking solution provider, with plans to cover various culinary needs from kitchen to table [21][22]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Haidilao's financial report indicates a continuous double-digit growth in net profit for six consecutive quarters, with a gross margin increase to 40.12% and a net profit margin of 25.75% [24]. - The company has initiated its first interim dividend plan since its listing, proposing a cash dividend of 2.60 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 1.52 billion CNY [26]. - Following a series of strategic moves, Haidilao's stock price saw an increase of over 8% in August, reflecting a recovery in performance [27].

Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced a general decline in the week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with the US stock market falling across the board, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average. European markets, led by Germany and France, also saw significant drops, while the UK showed relative resilience. The Asia-Pacific region weakened overall, with notable declines in Japan and South Korea, and significant losses in Hong Kong stocks [2][8]. - Valuation adjustments were observed, with the German DAX expanding its PE ratio by 1.42x, maintaining a high percentile. The French CAC40 dropped by 3.68%, with a corresponding PE reduction of 1.23x. Most Hong Kong indices, except for the Hang Seng Tech Index, remained at high valuation percentiles over the past three years [2][8]. A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a broad decline in core indices, with a moderate contraction in valuations during the same week. The National Index 2000 and the CSI 1000 showed relative resilience with declines of only -0.19% and -0.54%, respectively, while the CSI 100 experienced a significant drop of -2.15%. Growth and value indices faced pressure, with large-cap growth down by 2.58% and mid-cap value down by 2.57% [2][36]. - Overall, the A-share market's valuations contracted significantly, with large-cap growth experiencing the largest PE contraction of -1.45x, followed by the National Growth Index at -1.2x. As of August 1, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned between the 85%-100% percentiles for the past year, while PCF ratios were between 80%-90% [2][36][38]. Sector Performance - Most primary sectors in the A-share market declined, with the financial sector showing mixed results. Real estate and non-bank financials led the declines at -3.43% and -2.4%, respectively, while the banking sector saw a smaller drop of -0.84%. The essential consumer sector displayed internal differentiation, with pharmaceuticals rising by 2.95% while other sectors fell by over 2% [2][36]. - Valuations across sectors generally contracted, with pharmaceuticals experiencing the most significant expansion, exceeding 1x, while beauty care and real estate saw PE contractions of over 1x [2][36]. Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector demonstrated superior valuation attractiveness. In terms of PE, PB, PS, and PCF percentiles, bank valuations are at historical highs, nearing 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. The TMT sector is also at long-term high valuations, while essential consumer sectors like food and beverage show significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year and 5-year average percentiles at only 9.94% and 5.97%, respectively [2][36]. - Emerging industries showed mixed performance, with optical modules and optical communications standing out. Innovative pharmaceuticals and 5G sectors saw gains of 3.5% and 2.87%, respectively, while the smart vehicle sector exhibited internal differentiation [2][36].

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].