研究报告 ResearchReport 4 Jan 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 12 月需求报告：短期数据略有改善 Short-term Data has Shown Slight Improvement [Table_yemei1] Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 安井食品 | Outperform | | 伊利股 ...

Market Overview - The market showed a strong upward trend in the early session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.99% at the close [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,600 stocks rising [4]. Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector experienced a collective surge, particularly in retail and dairy industries, with stocks like Central Plaza, Shanghai Jiubai, and Zhuangyuan Pasture hitting the daily limit [5][8]. - Notable stocks included Debi Group (+19.99%), Zhejiang Meida (+9.95%), and Zhongguo Zhongmian (+7.25%) [9][11][12]. Smart Driving Concept - The smart driving sector saw significant activity, with Zhejiang Shibao achieving a four-day consecutive limit-up, supported by strong buying interest [18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicle approvals, marking a key step towards commercial application [18]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector showed renewed strength, with Aerospace Intelligence rising over 15% and several other stocks like Huati Technology and Aerospace Development also performing well [20][22]. - The upcoming period from December 2025 to early 2026 is expected to witness a series of maiden flights for reusable rockets, driven by private aerospace companies [22]. Policy Support for Consumption - Recent government policies aim to boost consumption through new business models and pilot programs in 50 cities, indicating a favorable environment for the consumer sector [15]. - Analysts express optimism regarding consumer spending, citing that disposable income growth is outpacing consumption growth, suggesting a recovery in consumer confidence [15].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened significantly higher on November 20, with the Hang Seng Index at 25,999.78 points, up 169.13 points, a rise of 0.65% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,646.28 points, increasing by 39.38 points, a gain of 0.70% [4] Company News - China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities announced a suspension of trading due to a major asset restructuring plan, which involves CICC issuing A-shares to acquire Dongxing and Xinda Securities [6] - Following this news, brokerage stocks collectively surged, with Shenwan Hongyuan Hong Kong (00218.HK) rising over 9%, and other firms like Dongfang Securities (03958.HK) and CITIC Securities (06030.HK) increasing by over 3% [6] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw more gainers than losers, with Baidu up over 3%, Kuaishou and Lenovo rising over 2%, and Alibaba increasing by over 1% [8] - Semiconductor stocks opened higher, with Huahong Semiconductor gaining over 3% [8] - The innovative drug sector mostly rose, with Gilead Sciences up over 3% [8] - Apple-related stocks experienced broad gains, with Hongteng Precision rising over 5% [8] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities' latest report suggests that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in fundamentals and significant valuation discounts [8] - Investors are advised to focus on five long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare, particularly biotechnology; 3) Resource commodities benefiting from rising inflation expectations and de-dollarization; 4) Consumer sectors with low valuations expected to recover; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [8]

Group 1: Long-term Perspective on Price Stability - The high growth rate of productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is a key factor restricting medium-term price stability, and a decline in productive investment is a prerequisite for achieving this stability [1] - In October, economic data continued to support this view, with retail sales and service production growth rates falling by approximately 2-3 percentage points compared to the peak in May, while infrastructure and real estate growth rates dropped by over 10 percentage points [1] - Manufacturing growth saw the most significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 15 percentage points, indicating a faster clearing pace in midstream investments compared to the overall sector [1] Group 2: Current Understanding of CPI Data - The October CPI data exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previously anticipated -0.1% [2] - The unexpected CPI increase is primarily attributed to fluctuations in food prices and gold, which together accounted for approximately 0.2 percentage points of the CPI change [2] - Despite the CPI increase, it is deemed unsustainable, as the underlying factors contributing to this rise are considered temporary and unlikely to persist [3] Group 3: Economic Sentiment and Policy Expectations - Current economic data indicates that essential consumption and service consumption are closely aligned with economic sentiment, while productive investment, infrastructure, and real estate sectors are lagging behind [4] - Essential consumption growth, excluding highly subsidized durable goods, showed an improvement to 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% previously, indicating a stable performance [5] - Service consumption, measured by retail sales growth in the service sector, recorded a cumulative increase of 5.3% from January to October, slightly up from 5.2% [6] - The expectation is that policies will likely maintain continuity and may even be moderately intensified to stabilize economic sentiment [4][6]

智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，据预测，25年9月重点跟踪的8个必选消费行业中5个保持正 增长，3个负增长。个位数增长的行业包括速冻食品、软饮料、调味品、啤酒和餐饮；下降的行业包括 次高端及以上白酒、大众及以下白酒和乳制品。与上月相比，5个行业增速改善，3个变差。双节前消费 和备货意愿不强，节后统计数据也显示商品消费弱于服务消费(国家税务总局数据显示增速分别为3.9% 和7.6%，整体增速4.5%)。 乳制品：9月国内乳制品行业收入为455亿元，同比下滑4.6%。1-9月累计收入为3531亿元，同比下滑 1.2%。乳制品需求仍然承压，礼赠市场表现不佳，经销商中秋国庆双节备货意愿谨慎。同时我们在九 月价格月报中也观察到乳制品线上零售价折扣率再次加大，价格竞争现象仍然较多。 速冻食品：9月国内速冻行业收入为78亿元，同比增长4.0%，1-9月累计收入805亿元，同比增长1.7%。 3Q25速冻食品需求整体表现平稳，9月为迎接双节，餐饮渠道纷纷备货，从而拉动对速冻食品的需求增 长，环比需求出现改善。进入下半年高基数影响逐渐消化。龙头企业各自调整策略争取全年增长。 软饮料：9月国内软饮料行业收入为663亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer industry is showing signs of recovery, with some Hong Kong-listed consumer companies experiencing a revaluation of their stocks, particularly Nongfu Spring, which has seen its stock price increase by over 100% since September of last year, reaching a market capitalization of over 550 billion HKD [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The recovery signals are evident, with Nongfu Spring's stock price only 15% away from its historical high, indicating that the market is likely to provide a correct pricing for the company [6]. - Unlike previous phases of broad consumer growth, market differentiation is becoming the norm, especially in the restaurant sector, where leading brands like Haidilao are still struggling, while second-tier brands like Jiumaojiu and Xiaobai are facing significant declines [6][7]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The enthusiasm for hot pot consumption is declining, and there are noticeable shifts in consumer preferences within the restaurant industry. Essential consumer markets, such as packaged water and condiments, are showing stronger resilience against economic cycles [7]. - Haidilao, known as the "sauce king," reported a revenue of 15.229 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 3.914 billion CNY, up 13.35% [8][10]. Group 3: Company Developments - Haidilao's stock price has rebounded from its lows, with its actual controller holding 35.99% of the shares, valued at over 87 billion CNY [11][12]. - The company has undergone significant changes, including leadership transitions and a push for internationalization, with its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange attracting nearly 4.7 billion HKD from eight cornerstone investors [18][19]. - Haidilao aims to transform from a soy sauce leader to a comprehensive cooking solution provider, with plans to cover various culinary needs from kitchen to table [21][22]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Haidilao's financial report indicates a continuous double-digit growth in net profit for six consecutive quarters, with a gross margin increase to 40.12% and a net profit margin of 25.75% [24]. - The company has initiated its first interim dividend plan since its listing, proposing a cash dividend of 2.60 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 1.52 billion CNY [26]. - Following a series of strategic moves, Haidilao's stock price saw an increase of over 8% in August, reflecting a recovery in performance [27].

Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced a general decline in the week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with the US stock market falling across the board, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average. European markets, led by Germany and France, also saw significant drops, while the UK showed relative resilience. The Asia-Pacific region weakened overall, with notable declines in Japan and South Korea, and significant losses in Hong Kong stocks [2][8]. - Valuation adjustments were observed, with the German DAX expanding its PE ratio by 1.42x, maintaining a high percentile. The French CAC40 dropped by 3.68%, with a corresponding PE reduction of 1.23x. Most Hong Kong indices, except for the Hang Seng Tech Index, remained at high valuation percentiles over the past three years [2][8]. A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a broad decline in core indices, with a moderate contraction in valuations during the same week. The National Index 2000 and the CSI 1000 showed relative resilience with declines of only -0.19% and -0.54%, respectively, while the CSI 100 experienced a significant drop of -2.15%. Growth and value indices faced pressure, with large-cap growth down by 2.58% and mid-cap value down by 2.57% [2][36]. - Overall, the A-share market's valuations contracted significantly, with large-cap growth experiencing the largest PE contraction of -1.45x, followed by the National Growth Index at -1.2x. As of August 1, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned between the 85%-100% percentiles for the past year, while PCF ratios were between 80%-90% [2][36][38]. Sector Performance - Most primary sectors in the A-share market declined, with the financial sector showing mixed results. Real estate and non-bank financials led the declines at -3.43% and -2.4%, respectively, while the banking sector saw a smaller drop of -0.84%. The essential consumer sector displayed internal differentiation, with pharmaceuticals rising by 2.95% while other sectors fell by over 2% [2][36]. - Valuations across sectors generally contracted, with pharmaceuticals experiencing the most significant expansion, exceeding 1x, while beauty care and real estate saw PE contractions of over 1x [2][36]. Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector demonstrated superior valuation attractiveness. In terms of PE, PB, PS, and PCF percentiles, bank valuations are at historical highs, nearing 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. The TMT sector is also at long-term high valuations, while essential consumer sectors like food and beverage show significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year and 5-year average percentiles at only 9.94% and 5.97%, respectively [2][36]. - Emerging industries showed mixed performance, with optical modules and optical communications standing out. Innovative pharmaceuticals and 5G sectors saw gains of 3.5% and 2.87%, respectively, while the smart vehicle sector exhibited internal differentiation [2][36].

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].