三期货有限公司 s Company Limited 矿端再现扰动,锡价大幅拉涨 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2026年2月27日，锡价继续大幅拉涨，根据Wind，截至收盘，沪锦主力合约涨8.88%至453240元/吨，锡价上涨的主要原因在于缅甸武装冲突加剧，引发市场对揭矿共应的但忧情绪。根据 马新社报道，近期缅甸为取军政府在该国西部和西北部地区实施空袭。造成至少20名平民死亡。19人受伤。事实上，从2021年缅甸军方发动攻变推翻昂山素季政府以来，民族武装团体与缅甸军 方如中突就愈演忽然，此次事件是矛盾进一步激化的显现。对此，腾冲市稀有非金属矿产合作办会发布通知，要求境外矿山人员紧急撤离矿区、不过，此次冲突主要发生在面部若开领、北部竞 钦邦等地区,并非锡矿主产区佤邦,因此我们认为暂时不会对锡矿生产造成明显影响。 基本面情况 目前，国内矿端紧缩状况表解，并制约着情想易产量。根据钢联、截至2月13日，60％品位的铜矿加工费10000元/吨。40％品位的锡矿加工费14000元/吨。维持相对低位。此外，根据钢 联: 1月国内晴炼锡产量为14382吨，同比-2.74%; 1月国内锡冶炼厂开工率为56 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 447,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 462,000.00 CNY, marking a 2.05% increase [1] - The current tin market is exhibiting a strong upward trend, with various institutions providing insights on future price movements [2] Group 2 - Hualian Futures noted that the domestic economy shows resilience, with increased demand from the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors, while overseas uncertainties remain, and there are expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicated that supply constraints from overseas tin mines persist, while domestic smelting plants are operating steadily; however, high prices are suppressing downstream replenishment demand, leading to a balanced supply and demand situation [2] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures analyzed that while tin ore supply has improved month-on-month, the overall tight supply situation has not significantly changed, and the market is experiencing a slow recovery in inventories [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance between 430,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 433,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,830 yuan/ton; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [3] - LME 3 - month tin is 53,462 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,934 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 38,434 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,968 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures in Shanghai Tin is - 2,306 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,850 lots; LME tin total inventory is 5,930 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,935 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,001 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 135 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 9,526 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,419 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 426,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20,500 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 435,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,030 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 7,670 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,540 yuan/ton; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 105.98 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.7 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 11,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 393,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 397,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 269,460 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,610 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tinplate is 1.3901 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 144,700 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November back to a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the core PPI month - on - month increase was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have different stances on interest rates. Kashkari supports Powell and advocates keeping interest rates unchanged in January, Paulson maintains a cautious stance, Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of independence in combating inflation, and Fed Governor Milan finds a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, and the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will still be no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching, increasing import pressure [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has risen recently, the downstream procurement demand has weakened again, the inventory has increased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has decreased [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The position has decreased while the price has increased, with a strong long - position atmosphere, and there may be an adjustment [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

Group 1 - As of December 26, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai tin futures closed at 338,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 18,475 contracts [1] - During the week of December 22-26, the Shanghai tin futures opened at 344,880 CNY/ton, reached a high of 349,130 CNY/ton, and a low of 328,290 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.05% [1] Group 2 - On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 8,153 tons of tin warehouse receipts, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons, a growth rate of 7.25% [2] - The average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots on December 25 was 332,750 CNY/ton, down 5,750 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 56,300 long positions and 56,500 short positions, resulting in a net position of -213 contracts, an increase of 3,293 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Group 3 - According to Jinrui Futures, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing, but the incremental increase is limited; in Indonesia, the transaction volume on JFX and ICDX was 4,420 tons as of December 23 [4] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with stable production expected from smelters; traditional demand in consumer electronics is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers [4] - Emerging sectors such as semiconductors and AI servers provide some structural support for prices, but overall tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to tight raw material supply and weak downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai tin market is expected to fluctuate upward, with attention on the resistance levels between 305,000 and 310,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.73% and an amplitude of 5.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 305,040 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months [5]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: - **Supply**: Domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume is still low. The supply disruption in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. The output of refined tin has rebounded, but due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials and low processing fees, the output is expected to be limited [5]. - **Import**: Indonesia's export volume in October was far lower than expected, and the domestic import is in a loss state, so the import volume of tin is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: Some downstream and terminal enterprises made small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases due to concerns about the continuous rise of tin prices, while others remained on the sidelines. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium dropped to - 300 yuan/ton; LME inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium rose [5]. - **Technical - aspect**: The price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment heated up [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 304,060 yuan/ton, up 13,320 yuan/ton or 4.58% from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 37,925 US dollars/ton, up 890 US dollars/ton or 2.4% from November 21 [7][10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.57, an increase of 0.02 from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.95, up 0.06 from November 20 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,766 lots, a decrease of 79 lots from November 24. The position of Shanghai tin was 99,560 lots, an increase of 20,989 lots or 26.71% from November 21 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import and Output**: In October 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 103,019.35 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 28, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 27; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from November 27 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import**: As of November 28, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 6,821.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,802.72 yuan/ton from November 21. In October 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 19,034.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%. In October 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1480.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.56%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 18,574.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.44% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,125 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 1.96% from November 20. As of November 28, 2025, the total tin inventory was 6,359 tons, an increase of 130 tons or 2.09% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,263 tons, an increase of 357 tons or 6.04% from November 21 [42]. Demand - side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 26, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,899.46, up 229.43 or 3.44% from November 19. From January to October 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 386.6 billion pieces, an increase of 33.60064 billion pieces or 9.52% compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from September. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 222,589.82 tons, an increase of 24,965.4 tons or 12.63% from September [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].