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沪锡市场周报:供应受限库存下降,预计锡价震荡偏强-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:05
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 沪锡市场周报 供应受限库存下降 预计锡价震荡偏强 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员: 添加客服 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源:瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾:本周沪锡主力高开高走,周线涨跌幅为+4.10%,振幅3.80%。截止本周主力合约收盘报 价286350元/吨。 行情展望:宏观面,美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯: 支持今年进一步降息,并不认为经济处于衰退边缘。基本面,印尼普拉博沃总统下令关闭邦加勿里 洞1000座非法锡矿,或加剧锡矿供应紧张;自缅甸进口锡矿量有所回升,随着采矿证审批通过,短 期供应有改善迹象,目前锡矿加工费维持历史低位。冶炼端,云南产区原料短缺依旧严峻;江西产 区废料回收体系承压,开工率保持在较低水平。需求端,因国庆后沪锡价格补涨,整体价格大幅拉 升,现货成交受到抑制,绝大多数下游企业采取观望态势,暂停采买活动。市场反馈暂无成交或仅 少量刚需成交,现货升水略下调 ...
锡矿供应恢复缓慢 沪锡偏强震荡【8月28日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 09:44
Group 1 - LME prices continue to rise, closing at 34,510, an increase of 1.11% from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The strong performance of tin prices is supported by low global tin inventory and tight supply, with macroeconomic sentiment improving [1][2] - Supply tightness from mining remains a crucial factor for supporting tin prices, with July imports of tin ore in China slightly decreasing compared to June, primarily due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports are limited, mainly due to profit margins affecting imports, with the current spot import window for refined tin remaining largely closed [2] - The global tin supply recovery is slow, with Indonesian refined tin exports facing challenges, while demand remains relatively stable [2] - Domestic inventory levels are high despite a slight decrease, and weak consumption is unlikely to provide support for prices in the short term [2]
海关总署:供应恢复迟缓 7月中国进口锡矿维持低位
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 05:23
Core Insights - In July, China's tin ore imports amounted to 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), showing a month-on-month decrease of 13.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.79% [2] - From January to July, the cumulative import volume reached 72,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.32% [2] - The decline in imports from Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria) is attributed to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions related to stalled electricity agreement negotiations in the DRC [2] - Myanmar's imports remain sluggish due to seasonal rains hindering production resumption, despite mining license approvals, compounded by Thailand's ban on overland transport [2] - The decline in resource grades from Australia is limiting export potential [2]
中航期货锡周报报告-20250627
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 01:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The macro - face shows the Fed officials' differences on interest - rate cuts are public. The fundamentals indicate that the resumption progress of Myanmar's Wa State tin mines is highly uncertain, and Thailand's ban on transit transportation of tin mines restricts imports. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. The smelting end has raw material shortages and cost pressures, with low raw - material inventories and low operating rates. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks due to price corrections. Technically, the position is low, and it faces MA60 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,880 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 32,690 dollars/ton, up 590 dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract closing price of Shanghai tin is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 17,549 lots, down 985 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,459 lots, down 1,007 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,175 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 685 tons, down 5 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,444 tons, down 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 261,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 261,510 yuan/ton, down 1,560 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 80.99 dollars/ton, up 103.99 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 170,130 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and subsidy funds will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Key Points - Myanmar's tin ore imports are restricted; Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in June. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages and cost pressures; Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure. The consumer electronics market is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises replenish stocks. The domestic inventory decreases slightly, and overseas de - stocking is obvious. Technically, it faces MA60 resistance and 257,000 yuan/ton support [2]
全球锡矿梳理(二)-20250603
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:07
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Overall, there are not many new tin mine projects outside Asia, and the incremental output is lackluster. The main variable for tin mine supply in 2025 still lies in whether the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar can resume production smoothly. Currently, it seems only a matter of time for the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines. In 2025, tin mine production in Indonesia is also expected to further recover, and tin mine supply may gradually shift from shortage to abundance within the next year [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Africa's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Africa's total tin mine production exceeded 40,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 23%. The increment was mainly contributed by the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa). Tin mine production in other African regions also increased, with year - on - year growth rates of 41% and 59% in Nigeria and Rwanda respectively [4]. - The Bisie mine operated by Alphamin in Congo (Kinshasa) achieved a stable annual output. After the new Mpama South concentrator was put into production in May 2024 and gradually reached full capacity, the annual output is expected to reach about 8,500 tons in the next few years. In 2024, Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin mine production reached 25,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the company's tin output is expected to be reduced from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons, with the annual total output remaining basically the same as last year [4]. - The Uis tin mine in Namibia is one of the world's largest tin mines. After being acquired by Afri Tin in 2018, it was rebuilt in two phases. Currently, the annual output is about 1,000 tons. In 2024, with investment from Orion Resource Partners, the company plans to expand tin production to 1,600 metal tons per year [5]. South America's Major Tin Mine Projects - In the 20th century, South America was a major tin - producing region globally. The main tin - producing countries are Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In 2024, Peru's tin mine production exceeded 32,000 tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase, thanks to a 17% increase in the output of the San Rafael mine of Minsur [9]. - Brazil's Pitinga mine has a large resource volume, but its output has been declining in recent years due to environmental policies and the crackdown on illegal mining. Bolivia mainly has state - owned smelting, and in 2024, its tin mine production increased by 8.6% year - on - year to 20,000 tons [9][13]. - Peru's San Rafael tin mine is the world's third - largest. In 2024, its tin mine output reached 24,400 tons. In 2025 Q1, the cash cost per ton of tin decreased significantly, by 34% year - on - year to $7,235 per ton [13]. - Brazil's tin mine output ranked sixth in the world in 2024, with 19,000 tons. The Pitinga tin mine has a resource reserve of 585,700 tons. In 2024, its tin output was 6,497 tons. Bolivia's tin production has remained stable around 20,000 tons since the 21st century, and in 2025, it was 21,000 tons [14]. Australia's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Australia's tin concentrate production increased by 17% to 11,000 tons, thanks to the good performance of the Renison mine of Metals X. The Ardlethan tailings project is in pilot production, and the annual output is expected to reach 1,000 - 2,000 tons after full capacity [19]. - The Renison tin mine is a joint - venture between Metals X and Yunnan Tin Group. The average full - life - cycle cost per ton of tin is estimated to be A$26,247. The Ardlethan tin mine is owned by EOE, a subsidiary of ATR. If the pilot production of the tin tailings project is successful, the company plans to expand the processing plant's capacity to 150 tons per hour, and the annual output is expected to reach 2,000 tons [19][21]. Overall Global Tin Mine Supply Outlook in 2025 - The total global tin mine production in 2024 was 278,700 tons, and it is expected to reach 294,100 tons in 2025, with an increment of 15,400 tons. The main variables affecting supply are the resumption of the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar and the recovery of production in Indonesia [24][25].
全球锡矿梳理(一):亚洲篇-20250429
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:02
Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The tin ore supply in Asia may shift from shortage to surplus within the next year as projects come online, but in the short term, the supply situation depends on the resumption of production at the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar [2][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Tin Ore Distribution - In 2023, the world's publicly disclosed tin ore reserves were about 4.3 million tons, mainly concentrated in a few countries. China ranked first with 1.1 million tons, accounting for about 26% of the world's known reserves; Myanmar followed with 700,000 tons, accounting for about 16.3%. Australia and Russia had reserves of 620,000 tons and 460,000 tons, respectively, accounting for 14.5% and 10.8% [4]. - In 2024, global tin ore production was 296,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. Asia, Africa, and South America were the main tin ore - producing regions. China, Indonesia, and Myanmar produced 69,000 tons, 50,000 tons, and 34,000 tons respectively, accounting for 23%, 17%, and 12% of the global supply [4]. China's Major Tin Ore Projects Yinman Mining - Yinman Mining, a subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxing Mining Co., Ltd., has tin ore resources of 195,600 tons with an average tin grade of 0.74%. After a technical transformation in 2023, the ore grade increased from 0.76% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023, and the beneficiation recovery rate increased from 50% to 60%. In 2024, the company's tin metal output reached about 8,900 tons [6][11]. - The Yinman Phase II project was approved at the beginning of this year. The project scale will be expanded from 1.65 million tons/year to 2.97 million tons/year. After completion, the production capacity and output are expected to double, with silver reaching over 360 tons and tin over 16,000 tons [11]. Huaxi Non - ferrous - Huaxi Non - ferrous is the only state - owned non - ferrous metal listed platform in Guangxi. It operates three mines, with a total of 238,000 tons of tin metal reserves [16]. - The Tongkeng Mine, the company's main mine, is promoting a project to develop tin - zinc ore resources, with a new production capacity of 1.65 million tons/year, mainly producing zinc, and the total mine production capacity will exceed 3 million tons in the future [16]. - The Gaofeng Tin Mine is promoting the deep - mining project of the 105th ore body. After completion, the production capacity of the 105th ore body will increase to 450,000 tons/year. In 2023, the mine produced 4,451 tons of tin concentrate [17]. Indonesia PT Timah - In 2024, after obtaining the export license, PT Timah's production recovered rapidly. As of the third quarter of 2024, its tin ore output was 15,189 tons, a 36% increase compared to the same period in 2023; tin metal output increased by 25% to 14,440 tons; and tin metal sales increased by 21% to 13,441 tons. In 2025, the company plans to increase ore output from 19,437 tons to 21,500 tons and tin metal output from 18,915 tons to 21,545 tons [21]. Myanmar Manxiang Tin Mine - Myanmar's tin ore resources are mainly concentrated in the W邦 Manxiang Mining Area, which accounted for over 90% of the country's output. The mine has been shut down for nearly 20 months. A symposium on resuming production was held on April 23, 2025. It is estimated that it will take at least two months to fully resume normal mining [22][26][27]. Malaysia MSC - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) is an important integrated producer of tin metal and tin - based products in Malaysia. In 2023, the tin concentrate output of its RHT project was nearly 26,000 tons, and the tin ingot output of the Pulau plant was 20,700 tons. Since the RHT project is mature and has no expansion plan, there will be no significant increase in tin supply in the short term [28][31]. Kazakhstan Syrymbet Mine - The Syrymbet Mine in Kazakhstan has total resources of 483,000 tons and reserves of 145,000 tons, with an average grade of 0.4%. The project is expected to have an annual output of about 6,500 tons of tin concentrate. It is expected to be completed, commissioned, and even launched in 2025, but the actual commissioning time is unknown [32].