1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The macro - face shows the Fed officials' differences on interest - rate cuts are public. The fundamentals indicate that the resumption progress of Myanmar's Wa State tin mines is highly uncertain, and Thailand's ban on transit transportation of tin mines restricts imports. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. The smelting end has raw material shortages and cost pressures, with low raw - material inventories and low operating rates. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks due to price corrections. Technically, the position is low, and it faces MA60 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,880 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 32,690 dollars/ton, up 590 dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract closing price of Shanghai tin is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 17,549 lots, down 985 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,459 lots, down 1,007 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,175 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 685 tons, down 5 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,444 tons, down 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 261,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 261,510 yuan/ton, down 1,560 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 80.99 dollars/ton, up 103.99 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 170,130 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and subsidy funds will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Key Points - Myanmar's tin ore imports are restricted; Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in June. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages and cost pressures; Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure. The consumer electronics market is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises replenish stocks. The domestic inventory decreases slightly, and overseas de - stocking is obvious. Technically, it faces MA60 resistance and 257,000 yuan/ton support [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Overall, there are not many new tin mine projects outside Asia, and the incremental output is lackluster. The main variable for tin mine supply in 2025 still lies in whether the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar can resume production smoothly. Currently, it seems only a matter of time for the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines. In 2025, tin mine production in Indonesia is also expected to further recover, and tin mine supply may gradually shift from shortage to abundance within the next year [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Africa's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Africa's total tin mine production exceeded 40,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 23%. The increment was mainly contributed by the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa). Tin mine production in other African regions also increased, with year - on - year growth rates of 41% and 59% in Nigeria and Rwanda respectively [4]. - The Bisie mine operated by Alphamin in Congo (Kinshasa) achieved a stable annual output. After the new Mpama South concentrator was put into production in May 2024 and gradually reached full capacity, the annual output is expected to reach about 8,500 tons in the next few years. In 2024, Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin mine production reached 25,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the company's tin output is expected to be reduced from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons, with the annual total output remaining basically the same as last year [4]. - The Uis tin mine in Namibia is one of the world's largest tin mines. After being acquired by Afri Tin in 2018, it was rebuilt in two phases. Currently, the annual output is about 1,000 tons. In 2024, with investment from Orion Resource Partners, the company plans to expand tin production to 1,600 metal tons per year [5]. South America's Major Tin Mine Projects - In the 20th century, South America was a major tin - producing region globally. The main tin - producing countries are Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In 2024, Peru's tin mine production exceeded 32,000 tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase, thanks to a 17% increase in the output of the San Rafael mine of Minsur [9]. - Brazil's Pitinga mine has a large resource volume, but its output has been declining in recent years due to environmental policies and the crackdown on illegal mining. Bolivia mainly has state - owned smelting, and in 2024, its tin mine production increased by 8.6% year - on - year to 20,000 tons [9][13]. - Peru's San Rafael tin mine is the world's third - largest. In 2024, its tin mine output reached 24,400 tons. In 2025 Q1, the cash cost per ton of tin decreased significantly, by 34% year - on - year to $7,235 per ton [13]. - Brazil's tin mine output ranked sixth in the world in 2024, with 19,000 tons. The Pitinga tin mine has a resource reserve of 585,700 tons. In 2024, its tin output was 6,497 tons. Bolivia's tin production has remained stable around 20,000 tons since the 21st century, and in 2025, it was 21,000 tons [14]. Australia's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Australia's tin concentrate production increased by 17% to 11,000 tons, thanks to the good performance of the Renison mine of Metals X. The Ardlethan tailings project is in pilot production, and the annual output is expected to reach 1,000 - 2,000 tons after full capacity [19]. - The Renison tin mine is a joint - venture between Metals X and Yunnan Tin Group. The average full - life - cycle cost per ton of tin is estimated to be A$26,247. The Ardlethan tin mine is owned by EOE, a subsidiary of ATR. If the pilot production of the tin tailings project is successful, the company plans to expand the processing plant's capacity to 150 tons per hour, and the annual output is expected to reach 2,000 tons [19][21]. Overall Global Tin Mine Supply Outlook in 2025 - The total global tin mine production in 2024 was 278,700 tons, and it is expected to reach 294,100 tons in 2025, with an increment of 15,400 tons. The main variables affecting supply are the resumption of the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar and the recovery of production in Indonesia [24][25].

专题报告 2025-04-29 全球锡矿梳理（一）：亚洲篇 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 本篇从锡矿储量分布出发，首先梳理了全球锡矿生产腹地-亚洲地区的锡矿产能及未来增量情 况。国内来看，锡矿供应增量主要来自于银漫二期项目的扩产，建成达产后银漫矿业产量有望 翻倍，达到 1.6 万吨以上。此外，印尼天马公司的锡供应量得益于 RKAB 审批的放松预计也会 有明显增量。哈萨克斯坦 Syrymbet 矿区是目前最大的待投产项目，2025 年有望完成建设、调 试甚至启动。 短期来看，亚洲地区锡矿供应的变量主要集中在缅甸曼相锡矿能否顺利复产，若复产仍存在变 数，短期锡矿供应紧缺问题难以得到解决。但拉长时间来看，当前锡价为锡矿项目的投扩产提 供了充足动力，缅甸锡矿的复产或已只是时间问题，随着亚洲地区待投锡矿项目的陆续投产， 锡矿供应或在未来一年内由紧缺逐步转为宽松。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 ...