1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest adopting a long - position approach and paying attention to the price range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for tin investment. The macro - environment shows potential positive signals from China - US communication. The supply side may face shortages due to factors like the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia and changes in global tin - ore production. The demand side remains weak with most downstream and terminal enterprises being cautious. Technically, there is a decline in the bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 283,170 yuan/ton, down 3,550 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract closing price is down 390 yuan but with a 180 - yuan increase in the ring - comparison. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,090 US dollars/ton, up 440 US dollars. The main contract open interest of Shanghai tin is 40,436 lots, down 4,648 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,840 lots, up 230 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,725 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,766 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipt is 5,609 tons, down 43 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 284,580 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 1,130 yuan/ton, up 4,350 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 US dollars/ton, down 43 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi talked with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping for mutual efforts for high - level China - US interactions. From January to September, the profit of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The profit of large - scale high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. The IMF predicts that by 2030, the US government's total debt - to - GDP ratio will soar by over 20 percentage points to 143.4% [3] 3.7 View Summary - On the macro - level, there are positive signals from China - US communication. On the fundamental level, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten tin - ore supply. Tin - ore imports in September decreased month - on - month, with slow production recovery in Myanmar, unexpected decline in Africa and Australia, and the upcoming rainy season in Africa. At the smelting end, raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the waste - recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, most downstream and terminal enterprises are waiting and only making small - quantity purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm. LME inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium rebounded slightly. Technically, the long - position sentiment declined as open interest decreased and prices fell. It is recommended to take a long - position approach and focus on the 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3.8 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the order from the Indonesian President to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and there are signs of short - term supply improvement as mining licenses are approved. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area is still severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, as tin prices fluctuate around 280,000 yuan, the wait - and - see sentiment of some downstream and terminal enterprises has subsided, leading to a small amount of replenishment. However, some still maintain just - in - time purchasing. Overall, the spot market trading has warmed up, with the spot premium remaining at 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,680 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 450 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,475 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 17,330 lots, down 2,223 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 1,393 lots, up 472 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,735 tons, unchanged; LME tin cancelled warrants are 205 tons, up 25 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,600 tons, up 65 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 281,420 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 182,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1666 million tons, down 0.0394 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry had no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials on export control and other issues and also talked with the Dutch economic minister. Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The President of Indonesia ordered to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Shanghai tin market, forecasting that tin prices will fluctuate and tend to be strong due to limited supply and falling inventories [2] - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin opened high and went high, with a weekly increase of 4.10% and an amplitude of 3.80%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 286,350 yuan/ton [7] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, or go long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support at 283,000 [7] Group 2: Market Outlook Macroeconomic Aspect - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasized inflation risks and said that interest rate cuts need to be cautious. Fed's "Number Three" Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year and does not think the economy is on the verge of recession [7] Fundamental Aspect - Indonesia's President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and with the approval of mining licenses, there are signs of short - term supply improvement. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [7] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the post - National Day price increase of Shanghai tin, the overall price has risen significantly, suppressing spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude and have suspended purchasing activities. The market feedback shows no or only a small amount of just - in - time demand transactions. The spot premium has been slightly reduced to 250 yuan/ton, and LME inventories are showing a decline while the spot premium remains stable [7] Technical Aspect - The increase in positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 290,000 [7] Group 3: Spot and Futures Market Price and Premium - As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 286,540 yuan/ton, a rise of 12,830 yuan/ton or 4.69% from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was $36,820/ton, a fall of $90/ton or 0.24% from October 3. The spot premium is weak [9][12] - As of October 10, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.33, an increase of 0.1 from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.82, a rise of 0.05 from September 30 [17] Position - As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,448 lots, a decrease of 269 lots from September 26, 2025. The position of Shanghai tin was 71,221 lots, an increase of 17,271 lots or 32.01% from September 25 [23] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Supply Side Import and Production - In August 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 10,267.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to August this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 82,673.45 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.43% [27] - In August 2025, the refined tin production was 14,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. From January to August, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.83% [28] Processing Fees - On October 10, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 9, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from October 9, 2025 [35] Import Profit and Loss - As of October 10, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,951.1 yuan/ton, a fall of 25,691.59 yuan/ton from October 3, 2025 [40] Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,410 tons, a decrease of 205 tons or 7.84% from October 3. The total tin inventory was 5,879 tons, a decrease of 550 tons or 8.55% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 5,809 tons, a decrease of 467 tons or 7.44% from September 25 [46] Group 5: Industrial Chain - Demand Side Semiconductor Index - On October 9, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,840.2, a rise of 213.82 or 3.23% from October 2 [49] Electronic Industry Output - From January to August 2025, the integrated circuit output was 34,291,232.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,840,674.7 million pieces or 20.53% compared with the same period last year [50] Tin - Plated Sheet - As of August 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, the same as in July 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,624.98 tons, a decrease of 39,395.07 tons or 19.12% from July [54]

Group 1 - LME prices continue to rise, closing at 34,510, an increase of 1.11% from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The strong performance of tin prices is supported by low global tin inventory and tight supply, with macroeconomic sentiment improving [1][2] - Supply tightness from mining remains a crucial factor for supporting tin prices, with July imports of tin ore in China slightly decreasing compared to June, primarily due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports are limited, mainly due to profit margins affecting imports, with the current spot import window for refined tin remaining largely closed [2] - The global tin supply recovery is slow, with Indonesian refined tin exports facing challenges, while demand remains relatively stable [2] - Domestic inventory levels are high despite a slight decrease, and weak consumption is unlikely to provide support for prices in the short term [2]

Core Insights - In July, China's tin ore imports amounted to 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), showing a month-on-month decrease of 13.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.79% [2] - From January to July, the cumulative import volume reached 72,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.32% [2] - The decline in imports from Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria) is attributed to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions related to stalled electricity agreement negotiations in the DRC [2] - Myanmar's imports remain sluggish due to seasonal rains hindering production resumption, despite mining license approvals, compounded by Thailand's ban on overland transport [2] - The decline in resource grades from Australia is limiting export potential [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The macro - face shows the Fed officials' differences on interest - rate cuts are public. The fundamentals indicate that the resumption progress of Myanmar's Wa State tin mines is highly uncertain, and Thailand's ban on transit transportation of tin mines restricts imports. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. The smelting end has raw material shortages and cost pressures, with low raw - material inventories and low operating rates. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks due to price corrections. Technically, the position is low, and it faces MA60 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,880 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 32,690 dollars/ton, up 590 dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract closing price of Shanghai tin is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 17,549 lots, down 985 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,459 lots, down 1,007 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,175 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 685 tons, down 5 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,444 tons, down 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 261,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 261,510 yuan/ton, down 1,560 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 80.99 dollars/ton, up 103.99 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 170,130 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and subsidy funds will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Key Points - Myanmar's tin ore imports are restricted; Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in June. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages and cost pressures; Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure. The consumer electronics market is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises replenish stocks. The domestic inventory decreases slightly, and overseas de - stocking is obvious. Technically, it faces MA60 resistance and 257,000 yuan/ton support [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Overall, there are not many new tin mine projects outside Asia, and the incremental output is lackluster. The main variable for tin mine supply in 2025 still lies in whether the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar can resume production smoothly. Currently, it seems only a matter of time for the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines. In 2025, tin mine production in Indonesia is also expected to further recover, and tin mine supply may gradually shift from shortage to abundance within the next year [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Africa's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Africa's total tin mine production exceeded 40,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 23%. The increment was mainly contributed by the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa). Tin mine production in other African regions also increased, with year - on - year growth rates of 41% and 59% in Nigeria and Rwanda respectively [4]. - The Bisie mine operated by Alphamin in Congo (Kinshasa) achieved a stable annual output. After the new Mpama South concentrator was put into production in May 2024 and gradually reached full capacity, the annual output is expected to reach about 8,500 tons in the next few years. In 2024, Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin mine production reached 25,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the company's tin output is expected to be reduced from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons, with the annual total output remaining basically the same as last year [4]. - The Uis tin mine in Namibia is one of the world's largest tin mines. After being acquired by Afri Tin in 2018, it was rebuilt in two phases. Currently, the annual output is about 1,000 tons. In 2024, with investment from Orion Resource Partners, the company plans to expand tin production to 1,600 metal tons per year [5]. South America's Major Tin Mine Projects - In the 20th century, South America was a major tin - producing region globally. The main tin - producing countries are Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In 2024, Peru's tin mine production exceeded 32,000 tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase, thanks to a 17% increase in the output of the San Rafael mine of Minsur [9]. - Brazil's Pitinga mine has a large resource volume, but its output has been declining in recent years due to environmental policies and the crackdown on illegal mining. Bolivia mainly has state - owned smelting, and in 2024, its tin mine production increased by 8.6% year - on - year to 20,000 tons [9][13]. - Peru's San Rafael tin mine is the world's third - largest. In 2024, its tin mine output reached 24,400 tons. In 2025 Q1, the cash cost per ton of tin decreased significantly, by 34% year - on - year to $7,235 per ton [13]. - Brazil's tin mine output ranked sixth in the world in 2024, with 19,000 tons. The Pitinga tin mine has a resource reserve of 585,700 tons. In 2024, its tin output was 6,497 tons. Bolivia's tin production has remained stable around 20,000 tons since the 21st century, and in 2025, it was 21,000 tons [14]. Australia's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Australia's tin concentrate production increased by 17% to 11,000 tons, thanks to the good performance of the Renison mine of Metals X. The Ardlethan tailings project is in pilot production, and the annual output is expected to reach 1,000 - 2,000 tons after full capacity [19]. - The Renison tin mine is a joint - venture between Metals X and Yunnan Tin Group. The average full - life - cycle cost per ton of tin is estimated to be A$26,247. The Ardlethan tin mine is owned by EOE, a subsidiary of ATR. If the pilot production of the tin tailings project is successful, the company plans to expand the processing plant's capacity to 150 tons per hour, and the annual output is expected to reach 2,000 tons [19][21]. Overall Global Tin Mine Supply Outlook in 2025 - The total global tin mine production in 2024 was 278,700 tons, and it is expected to reach 294,100 tons in 2025, with an increment of 15,400 tons. The main variables affecting supply are the resumption of the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar and the recovery of production in Indonesia [24][25].