日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称美国将暂时"管理"委内瑞拉 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-05 宏观策略（股指期货） 《求是》发文称改善和稳定房地产市场预期 从 12 月 PMI 看，国内经济景气改善。伴随首批国补资金下达， 预计一季度消费端仍有支撑，进而带动改善国内经济预期。但 短期地缘风险因素也对风险资产存在压制。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 12 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1 综 费率新规落地短期利多债市，但并不能扭转债市的空头情绪。 债市快速上涨后仍有下跌压力，建议关注逢高做空策略。 合 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 晨 特朗普称美国将暂时"管理"委内瑞拉 报 特朗普闪击委内瑞拉，地缘风险上升，美元指数短期走强。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚 12 月棕榈油出口量环比减少 5.21% 马棕出口数据再度下降，12 月马棕库存或超 300 万吨 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 印度对部分进口钢铁产品征收为期三年关税 元旦假期前五大品种延续去库，不过去库速度放缓。短期来看， 钢价趋势性依然有限。近期外围金属波动也相对较大，市场情 绪波动。成材基本面矛盾依然不算明显，等待 ...

截至2025年12月26日当周，沪锡期货主力合约收于338550元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持18475手。 本周(12月22日-12月26日)市场上看，沪锡期货周内开盘报344880元/吨，最高触及349130元/吨，最低下探至328290元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.05%。 消息面回顾： 12月25日，上期所沪锡期货仓单录得8153吨，较上一交易日下降178吨；最近一周，沪锡期货仓单累计增长551吨，增长幅度为7.25%；最近一个 月，沪锡期货仓单累计增长2060吨，增长幅度为33.81%。 12月25日Mysteel1#锡锭报价331500-334000元/吨，均价332750元/吨，较上一交易日跌5750元/吨。 12月25日，沪锡前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓5.63万手，空单持仓5.65万手，多空比1。净持仓为-213手，相较上日增加3293手。 机构观点汇总： 金瑞期货：基本面上，缅甸锡矿复产推进，环比增量有限；印尼截至12月23日，JFX与ICDX成交量为4420吨。国内方面，锡矿供应依然紧张，冶 炼厂产量预计平稳。消费电子等传统领域需求持续不振，高锡价进一步压制下游采购意愿 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 沪锡市场周报 价格调整成交改善 预计锡价震荡偏强 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力高位调整，周线涨跌幅为-1.31%，振幅6.10%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价338550 元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国结束上届政府针对中国芯片贸易调查，未来18个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税。基 本面，供应端，国内锡矿进口供应仍相对较紧，锡矿加工费维持低位。缅甸复产推进叠加雨季结束，提供了 部分锡矿供应增量；但其地地区供应仍具有较大不稳定性，整体锡矿进口量仍处于较低水平。冶炼端，当前 锡矿原料紧张，大部分企业原料库存还是偏低，对大多数企业来说处于亏本状况，预计精炼锡产量继续受限， 同比仍缺乏增量。进口方面，印尼 11 月出口量大幅增加，缓解了对印尼供应受限的担忧。不过国内进口维 持亏损状态，预计进口锡数量将保持低位。需求端，近日锡价高位回调，市场择机 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai tin market is expected to fluctuate upward, with attention on the resistance levels between 305,000 and 310,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.73% and an amplitude of 5.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 305,040 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months [5]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: - **Supply**: Domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume is still low. The supply disruption in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. The output of refined tin has rebounded, but due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials and low processing fees, the output is expected to be limited [5]. - **Import**: Indonesia's export volume in October was far lower than expected, and the domestic import is in a loss state, so the import volume of tin is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: Some downstream and terminal enterprises made small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases due to concerns about the continuous rise of tin prices, while others remained on the sidelines. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium dropped to - 300 yuan/ton; LME inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium rose [5]. - **Technical - aspect**: The price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment heated up [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 304,060 yuan/ton, up 13,320 yuan/ton or 4.58% from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 37,925 US dollars/ton, up 890 US dollars/ton or 2.4% from November 21 [7][10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.57, an increase of 0.02 from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.95, up 0.06 from November 20 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,766 lots, a decrease of 79 lots from November 24. The position of Shanghai tin was 99,560 lots, an increase of 20,989 lots or 26.71% from November 21 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import and Output**: In October 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 103,019.35 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 28, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 27; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from November 27 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import**: As of November 28, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 6,821.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,802.72 yuan/ton from November 21. In October 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 19,034.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%. In October 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1480.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.56%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 18,574.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.44% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,125 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 1.96% from November 20. As of November 28, 2025, the total tin inventory was 6,359 tons, an increase of 130 tons or 2.09% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,263 tons, an increase of 357 tons or 6.04% from November 21 [42]. Demand - side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 26, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,899.46, up 229.43 or 3.44% from November 19. From January to October 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 386.6 billion pieces, an increase of 33.60064 billion pieces or 9.52% compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from September. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 222,589.82 tons, an increase of 24,965.4 tons or 12.63% from September [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest adopting a long - position approach and paying attention to the price range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for tin investment. The macro - environment shows potential positive signals from China - US communication. The supply side may face shortages due to factors like the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia and changes in global tin - ore production. The demand side remains weak with most downstream and terminal enterprises being cautious. Technically, there is a decline in the bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 283,170 yuan/ton, down 3,550 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract closing price is down 390 yuan but with a 180 - yuan increase in the ring - comparison. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,090 US dollars/ton, up 440 US dollars. The main contract open interest of Shanghai tin is 40,436 lots, down 4,648 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,840 lots, up 230 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,725 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,766 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipt is 5,609 tons, down 43 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 284,580 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 1,130 yuan/ton, up 4,350 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 US dollars/ton, down 43 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi talked with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping for mutual efforts for high - level China - US interactions. From January to September, the profit of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The profit of large - scale high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. The IMF predicts that by 2030, the US government's total debt - to - GDP ratio will soar by over 20 percentage points to 143.4% [3] 3.7 View Summary - On the macro - level, there are positive signals from China - US communication. On the fundamental level, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten tin - ore supply. Tin - ore imports in September decreased month - on - month, with slow production recovery in Myanmar, unexpected decline in Africa and Australia, and the upcoming rainy season in Africa. At the smelting end, raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the waste - recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, most downstream and terminal enterprises are waiting and only making small - quantity purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm. LME inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium rebounded slightly. Technically, the long - position sentiment declined as open interest decreased and prices fell. It is recommended to take a long - position approach and focus on the 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3.8 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the order from the Indonesian President to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and there are signs of short - term supply improvement as mining licenses are approved. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area is still severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, as tin prices fluctuate around 280,000 yuan, the wait - and - see sentiment of some downstream and terminal enterprises has subsided, leading to a small amount of replenishment. However, some still maintain just - in - time purchasing. Overall, the spot market trading has warmed up, with the spot premium remaining at 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,680 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 450 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,475 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 17,330 lots, down 2,223 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 1,393 lots, up 472 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,735 tons, unchanged; LME tin cancelled warrants are 205 tons, up 25 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,600 tons, up 65 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 281,420 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 182,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1666 million tons, down 0.0394 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry had no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials on export control and other issues and also talked with the Dutch economic minister. Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The President of Indonesia ordered to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3].