1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the strong performance of precious metals, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is generally positive. However, each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price influencing factors, and the price trends vary [2][3]. - For copper, although there is a possibility of a short - term price increase, the resistance to upward movement is increasing. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. For lead, the price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term. For zinc, it may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term. For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. For nickel, the short - term bottom may have emerged. For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply pressure eases and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper price rose 0.34% to $11,911/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 93,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, the bonded - area inventory increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 49,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot widened to 1,600 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly to 4,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The sentiment is positive under the Fed's policy and precious metals rally. The copper mine supply is tight, and the supply surplus pressure is not large in the short term, but the resistance to upward movement is increasing. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 92,800 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,800 - 12,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.49% to $2,941/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.5 to 659,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 76,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by about 27,000 tons, and the aluminum rod processing fee decreased. The LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 520,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy View**: The overall inventory is relatively low, and the price support is strong, but there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,910 - 2,980 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.22% to 16,917 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose $5 to $1,978.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 40 tons to 1,910 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of lead ingots is tightening marginally, and the inventory is relatively low. After the short - term macro - risk release, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is strong. The lead price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.18% to 23,123 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose $19 to $3,092/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 70 tons to 11,930 tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. The LME zinc inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. Affected by macro - sentiment, the zinc price may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 340,440 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi have limited production growth momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.48% to 121,260 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rose slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have emerged due to the news of potential cobalt taxation in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 3.18% to 108,405 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 114,380 yuan, a 2.68% increase [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply pressure eases, and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The operating range of the LC2605 contract is 111,600 - 117,100 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 1.08% to 2,561 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 135 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $309/ton, and the import loss was 59 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the follow - up production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase. The social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a 2.01% decrease [25]. - **Strategy View**: The news of the reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production target has boosted the price, but the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2602 rose 0.26% to 21,290 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position remained stable at 28,900 lots, and the trading volume increased [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is relatively strong, and there are supply - side disturbances, but the demand is unstable and there is delivery pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [29].

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]