| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 328600 | 7980 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -740 | -100 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 40955 | -140 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 32130 | -155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -498 | -234 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3815 | 20 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7391 | 526 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 155 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7497 | 34 | | | | | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 325800 | 5300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 325580 | 7040 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Shanghai tin market, forecasting that tin prices will fluctuate and tend to be strong due to limited supply and falling inventories [2] - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin opened high and went high, with a weekly increase of 4.10% and an amplitude of 3.80%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 286,350 yuan/ton [7] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, or go long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support at 283,000 [7] Group 2: Market Outlook Macroeconomic Aspect - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasized inflation risks and said that interest rate cuts need to be cautious. Fed's "Number Three" Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year and does not think the economy is on the verge of recession [7] Fundamental Aspect - Indonesia's President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and with the approval of mining licenses, there are signs of short - term supply improvement. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [7] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the post - National Day price increase of Shanghai tin, the overall price has risen significantly, suppressing spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude and have suspended purchasing activities. The market feedback shows no or only a small amount of just - in - time demand transactions. The spot premium has been slightly reduced to 250 yuan/ton, and LME inventories are showing a decline while the spot premium remains stable [7] Technical Aspect - The increase in positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 290,000 [7] Group 3: Spot and Futures Market Price and Premium - As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 286,540 yuan/ton, a rise of 12,830 yuan/ton or 4.69% from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was $36,820/ton, a fall of $90/ton or 0.24% from October 3. The spot premium is weak [9][12] - As of October 10, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.33, an increase of 0.1 from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.82, a rise of 0.05 from September 30 [17] Position - As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,448 lots, a decrease of 269 lots from September 26, 2025. The position of Shanghai tin was 71,221 lots, an increase of 17,271 lots or 32.01% from September 25 [23] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Supply Side Import and Production - In August 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 10,267.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to August this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 82,673.45 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.43% [27] - In August 2025, the refined tin production was 14,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. From January to August, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.83% [28] Processing Fees - On October 10, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 9, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from October 9, 2025 [35] Import Profit and Loss - As of October 10, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,951.1 yuan/ton, a fall of 25,691.59 yuan/ton from October 3, 2025 [40] Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,410 tons, a decrease of 205 tons or 7.84% from October 3. The total tin inventory was 5,879 tons, a decrease of 550 tons or 8.55% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 5,809 tons, a decrease of 467 tons or 7.44% from September 25 [46] Group 5: Industrial Chain - Demand Side Semiconductor Index - On October 9, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,840.2, a rise of 213.82 or 3.23% from October 2 [49] Electronic Industry Output - From January to August 2025, the integrated circuit output was 34,291,232.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,840,674.7 million pieces or 20.53% compared with the same period last year [50] Tin - Plated Sheet - As of August 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, the same as in July 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,624.98 tons, a decrease of 39,395.07 tons or 19.12% from July [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]