红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从沪市中筛选分红能力显著且分红 记录稳定的优质企业，成分股涵盖银行、煤炭及交运等高股息行业。通过现金股息率和流动性筛选机 制，该指数集中体现了高股息上市公司的整体表现，为投资者提供稳定收益的参考标的。 每日经济新闻 西部证券指出，"红利+"是短期稳妥的配置策略，是第一波回流消费资金首选。随着高端消费、速冻等 部分大众品数据回暖，市场会逐渐重回关注消费板块，但由于底部盘整周期较长、消费景气度分歧较 大，当前红利+成为阻力最小方向。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets have become a stable mainstay in the equity market since 2022, providing steady cash flow and reasonable valuations, and are expected to maintain long-term allocation value despite a shift towards growth styles by 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Changes in Dividend Asset Allocation Value - The allocation value of dividend stocks has not weakened but rather complements growth sectors due to a diverse market style and active structural opportunities [4]. - Dividend assets provide a stable foundation for investment portfolios, optimizing risk-return structures and enhancing long-term compounding returns [4][5]. Group 2: Long-term Performance and Demand for Dividend Assets - The demand for dividend assets is expected to rise as companies increase their dividend payout ratios following a peak in capital expenditures, supported by ample liquidity in the market [5]. - The market is transitioning to a "dividend+" era, where dividend assets will show significant differentiation based on specific industry and company conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Strategies for Achieving Flexibility and Excess Returns - A balanced approach combining "core-satellite" strategies with cash-rich, stable-profit assets is recommended to adapt to market rotations [6]. - Value investment should not be narrowly defined; it should include identifying quality businesses at reasonable or low prices while adapting to market and fundamental changes [6][7]. Group 4: Value Investment in a Rotating Market - A deep value investment philosophy should guide the entire investment process, distinguishing between "value" and "price" based on ROE, cash flow, and governance [7][9]. - A diversified and balanced portfolio strategy is essential to manage high market volatility and avoid excessive risk exposure to individual stocks or sectors [7][8]. Group 5: Identifying Truly Undervalued Stocks - The selection of stocks should consider both willingness and ability to distribute dividends, focusing on governance and free cash flow [9][10]. - Long-term competitive strength and cash generation capabilities are critical in distinguishing between genuinely undervalued stocks and those that merely appear cheap [10]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities in the Current Market - Future investment opportunities in cyclical dividend assets are anticipated, particularly in sectors like coal, engineering machinery, and consumer goods, as they recover from low profitability [11]. - The focus should also be on stable cash flow sectors such as utilities, highways, and essential consumption, alongside opportunities driven by new policies and external demand [11][12]. Group 7: Evaluating the "Dumbbell Strategy" of Small and Dividend Stocks - The combination of stable dividend assets and small-cap stocks can reduce portfolio volatility while providing both defensive and offensive characteristics [12][13]. - The economic recovery may impact dividend assets and small-cap stocks differently, necessitating a focus on dividend stability and cash flow resilience in the former, while emphasizing profitability and governance in the latter [13].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices have performed relatively well since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 25.51%, the Hang Seng Technology Index by 22.89%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 23.98% from the beginning of 2025 to July 30, 2025 [3][17]. - The improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market is significantly driven by the increase in southbound capital, which has seen a total trading volume of 14.63 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 220.41% [3][21]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index having TTM P/E ratios of 11.49, 22.24, and 10.49 respectively, which are lower compared to the CSI 300 Index [3][31]. Group 2 - The "Dividend +" strategy is based on the high dividend yield and low valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks, particularly state-owned enterprises, which generally have higher dividend rates [3][46]. - The "Dividend + Stability" strategy focuses on selecting stocks with high dividend yields and stable earnings, with criteria including a TTM dividend yield greater than 4.5% and a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB [3][55]. - The "Dividend + Economic Recovery" strategy targets investment opportunities in the power sector, which is currently experiencing a recovery due to stable coal prices and increasing electricity demand [3][59]. Group 3 - The power industry is in a recovery phase, with coal prices stabilizing and electricity demand increasing, which enhances the profitability of power companies [3][60][64]. - The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing mechanism starting in 2024 is expected to support the profitability of coal power companies by allowing them to recover fixed costs [3][64]. - The renewable energy sector is also expected to benefit from improved cash flow and reduced accounts receivable, which will enhance dividend capabilities [3][70][71].

Dividend Performance - In 2024, the total cash dividends for all A-share companies reached CNY 1.94 trillion, with a growth rate of 13.90% compared to 2023, and approximately 73.80% of listed companies distributed cash dividends[18][19]. - The overall dividend payout ratio for A-shares in 2024 was 37.70%, slightly lower than the 39.10% observed in the Hong Kong market[19]. Market Trends - Nearly 74% of listed companies are engaging in cash dividends, significantly expanding the concept and selection range of dividend stocks[18]. - The differentiation within dividend assets is expected to continue and intensify, challenging the traditional selection paradigm based on a dividend yield threshold of 4% or 5%[18]. Investment Strategies - The report highlights the emergence of various "dividend+" strategies that combine dividend selection with other investment criteria to address the sustainability of dividends and capture potential high-yield stocks[23][31]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to increase its allocation to dividend assets, with companies like New China Life and China Life expected to raise their OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) allocation by approximately 4% to 5% in their 2024 semi-annual reports[23]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies that industries such as insurance, food and beverage, and home appliances have announced higher average dividends per share compared to 2023, indicating strong performance in these sectors[23]. - The consumer discretionary sector is leading the market, with significant outperformance noted in the healthcare sector against industry benchmarks[8][23]. Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, and investors should be cautious of the ongoing market volatility and sector-specific risks[8].