Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of A-share indices in October over the past decade, indicating a mixed trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index show higher winning rates, particularly in specific sectors like semiconductors and automotive parts [1][5]. Summary by Sections A-share Index Performance - Over the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a 50% win rate in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index has a 70% win rate, and the ChiNext Index has a 60% win rate [2][5]. - The performance of these indices varies significantly, with notable years of decline in 2018, 2022, and 2023 for the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices [2][5]. Sector Performance - In the last five years, the semiconductor, other electronics, and automotive parts sectors have achieved a 100% win rate in October [1][5]. - Other sectors such as commercial vehicles, internet e-commerce, automation equipment, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, and components have an 80% win rate [5]. Investment Recommendations - Multiple brokerages suggest focusing on technology and "anti-involution" themes, especially during the third-quarter report window [6]. - The market is expected to maintain a trend of gradual upward movement, with key attention on third-quarter earnings reports and policy expectations [6][7]. - Key investment themes include AI capital expenditure, the "14th Five-Year Plan" expectations, and sectors likely to benefit from potential policy reversals related to "anti-involution" [7].

Market Overview - On October 3, Hong Kong's three major stock indices collectively adjusted, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.54% to 27,140.92 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.68% to 9,658.34 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 0.90% to 6,622.85 points [1][3]. Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng industry sectors, most declined, while the utilities and industrial sectors rose against the trend [3]. - Shanghai Electric surged over 14%, reaching a 10-year high of 5.04 HKD per share during the session [3]. Individual Stock Highlights - Semiconductor stocks, including SMIC, saw gains, with SMIC's stock price rising over 1% to surpass 90 HKD per share, hitting a historical high of 91.35 HKD per share [5]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by over 2%, reaching a historical high of 88.75 HKD per share [5]. - Alibaba-W rose by 1.09%, touching 186.2 HKD per share, marking a four-year high [5]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions maintain a positive outlook for the Hong Kong market in October, citing three main reasons: 1. Recent high-frequency economic data indicates strong resilience in the domestic economy, with industrial profits in August rebounding by 20.4% year-on-year [7]. 2. Continuous net inflows from southbound funds, exceeding 1 trillion HKD since the beginning of 2025, are a significant source of incremental capital for the Hong Kong market [7]. 3. The initiation of a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to improve liquidity in the Hong Kong market [7]. - The "October effect" historically shows strong performance for major indices, leading institutions to suggest focusing on undervalued stocks represented by the Hang Seng Technology Index for potential rebound opportunities [7].

Market Overview - On October 3, Hong Kong's three major stock indices collectively adjusted, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.54% to 27,140.92 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.68% to 9,658.34 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 0.90% to 6,622.85 points [1][3]. Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng industry sectors, most experienced declines, while the utilities and industrial sectors saw gains [3]. - Shanghai Electric surged over 14%, reaching a peak of 5.04 HKD per share, marking a 10-year high. Other companies like China General Nuclear Power, Datang Power, and Dongfeng Motor also saw increases [3]. Individual Stock Highlights - Semiconductor stocks, including SMIC, saw upward movement, with SMIC's stock price rising over 1% to surpass 90 HKD per share, hitting a historical high of 91.35 HKD per share. Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by over 2%, reaching a historical high of 88.75 HKD per share. Alibaba-W rose by 1.09%, touching 186.2 HKD per share, a four-year high [5][7]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions maintain a positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks in October, citing three main reasons: 1. Recent high-frequency economic data indicates strong resilience in the domestic economy, with industrial profits in August rebounding by 20.4% year-on-year after a previous decline of 1.5% [7]. 2. Continuous net inflows from southbound funds, exceeding 1 trillion HKD since the beginning of 2025, are seen as a significant source of incremental capital for the Hong Kong market [7]. 3. The initiation of a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to improve liquidity in the Hong Kong market [7]. - Historical trends suggest that October typically exhibits a "calendar effect," with major indices performing well, reinforcing the expectation of a "red October" rally, particularly in undervalued sectors like Hang Seng Technology [7].

| 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 推荐次数 | 申万行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002415. SZ | 海康威视 | 2 | 计算机 | | 2 | 688169. SH | 石头科技 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 3 | 603799. SH | 华友钻业 | 2 | 华友钻业 | | র্ব | 603486. SH | 科沃斯 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 5 | 603993. SH | 洛阳钼业 | 2 | 有色金属 | | 6 | 688208. SH | 道通科技 | 2 | 计算机 | | 7 | 002648. SZ | 卫星化学 | 2 | 基础化工 | | 8 | 603986. SH | 兆易创新 | 2 | 电子 | | 0 | 000063. SZ | 中兴通讯 | 2 | 通信 | | 10 | 601100. SH | 恒立液压 | 2 | 机械设备 | | 11 | 688981. SH | 中芯国际 | 2 | 电子 | | 12 | 600690. SH | 海尔智家 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 13 ...