Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Continue to Weaken" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cold repair expectation of 3,600 tons of glass production capacity in mid - to late December has basically failed, strengthening the fundamental pressure of stable supply at the end of the year. With the lack of year - end demand, large capital repayment pressure, and the lack of macro - positive expectations in the real estate sector, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level before the Spring Festival, and the near - month contracts will continue to weaken [2] Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - The main logic is based on the market situation, including price fluctuations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The market's cold repair expectation has failed, and the end - of - year supply is stable while demand is lacking. Technically, the short - side force is increasing, so the glass near - month contracts are expected to continue to weaken [2] - The operation strategy is to expect the glass market to continue to weaken [2][3] 2. Spot Price Review - As of December 19, the 5mm float glass market prices in North China were 1,030 yuan/ton (- 10), in Central China 1,080 yuan/ton (0), and in East China 1,190 yuan/ton (- 10). The weekly changes of 5mm float glass prices for some manufacturers (such as Shahe Anquan, Shahe Great Wall, etc.) showed a downward trend, with a maximum decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8][9] - The glass 01 contract closed at 941 yuan/ton last Friday, up 6 for the week [9] 3. Spread Review - As of December 19, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,176 yuan) and the glass futures price (1041 yuan) was 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to before [10] - Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [14] 4. Profit Situation - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,573 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 7 yuan/ton (0 change) [18] 5. Supply Situation - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (0 change), and there were currently 219 production lines in operation. There were some production line changes in the past, including cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [20][22] 6. Inventory Situation - As of December 19, the national inventory of 80 glass samples was on the rise (+ 33.1). Specifically, the inventory in North China was 1,045 million weight boxes (+ 40.8), in Central China 685 million weight boxes (+ 1.5), in East China 1,209.3 million weight boxes (- 2.1), in South China 797.3 million weight boxes (- 16.7), in Southwest China 1,197.2 million weight boxes (- 2.5), and the Shahe factory inventory was 350 million weight boxes (32). The Hubei factory inventory was 475 million weight boxes (+ 14) [24][27][30] 7. Production - Sales and Deep - Processing Situation - On December 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 89%, a decrease of 6%. On December 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.3%, a decrease of 1%. In mid - December, the available days of glass deep - processing orders were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [31] 8. Demand from the Automotive Sector - In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in November were 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [42] 9. Demand from the Real Estate Sector - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (- 28%); construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (- 42%); and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (- 18%). From December 8 to December 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.12 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 13% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. In November, the real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [47] 10. Soda Ash Cost - End: Basis Strengthening - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1,325 yuan/ton in North China (0 change), 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (0 change), 1,300 yuan/ton in Central China (0 change), and 1,450 yuan/ton in South China (0 change). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton (+ 83). The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [49][51][53] 11. Soda Ash Cost - End: Cost Decrease - As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the co - production process cost was 1,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The overall soda ash profit was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0 change) [55][56][57] 12. Soda Ash Cost - End: Inventory Recovery - Last week, domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons, including 390,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons) and 331,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons). The loss amount was 150,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 4,532 pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 1,231 pieces. As of December 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons [65][66][68] 13. Soda Ash Cost - End: Apparent Demand Decline - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.71%. The inventory days of soda ash were 24.1 days [74][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Price**: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - **Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - **Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - **Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - **Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - **Negative Information**: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - **Soda Ash Supply**: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass Demand**: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the soda ash futures prices have significantly declined, approaching yearly lows due to weakening demand and increasing supply pressures [1][5][8] Group 2 - The cold repair of glass production lines in Hebei has led to a reduction in daily melting capacity by 2400 tons, with further cold repairs expected to exceed 4000 tons per day by the end of the year [2][4] - The glass inventory continues to accumulate, causing prices to drop and production profits to deteriorate, leading to more production lines entering loss-making states [2][3] Group 3 - New soda ash production capacities are set to come online, including a 280,000-ton natural soda project by Yuanxing Energy expected to start by the end of December, which will further increase supply pressure [5][6] - The overall soda ash production capacity utilization rate was 83.30% in November, with a production volume of 3.1123 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease [5][6] Group 4 - The theoretical profit for soda ash production using the soda-lime method was reported at -140 RMB/ton, indicating a worsening profitability scenario [6] - The coal prices have shown signs of stagnation, leading to weakened cost support for soda ash production [7][8]

Supply and Demand - The national float glass daily production is 156,700 tons, which is an increase of 1.03% compared to the previous day [2] - The total float glass production for the week (May 9-15, 2025) is 1,091,700 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.02% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 9.73% [2] - The total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 68.082 million heavy boxes, which is an increase of 522,000 heavy boxes, or 0.77% week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 14.45% [2] - The inventory days are 31 days, which is an increase of 0.2 days compared to the previous period [2] Market Analysis - Recent cold repair news has boosted market sentiment, with support forming at the 1,000-point level [3] - However, the spot market sentiment remains pessimistic, with prices generally declining across various regions [3] - The production and sales rate of manufacturers has been affected by previous market declines, leading to a weak overall market expectation [3] - There has been a gradual improvement in downstream processing orders during April and May, with seasonal demand recovery for processing plants [3] - Market expectations are weak, with a forecast of slowed demand progress after June due to the summer rainy season [3] - The overall market is expected to maintain a bottoming oscillation pattern, with further increases requiring more cold repairs to be realized [3] Operational Recommendations - It is suggested to monitor the support situation at the 1,000-point level for float glass [4]