中国今年前11个月的贸易顺差破了1万亿美元，这事儿听着挺牛的，可仔细一想，问题不小。出口卖得飞起，进口却蔫了，这不就是内需没劲儿的外在表现 吗？ 全球贸易史上头一遭，顺差这么大，表面风光，里子却暴露了经济结构的老毛病。 从海关总署在12月8日公布的数据看，2025年前11个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值5.75万亿美元，出口3.41万亿美元，同比增长5.4%，进口2.34万亿美元，同 比下降0.6%。 顺差直接冲到1.076万亿美元，比去年同期涨了21.7%，这不光是历史同期最高，还超过了2024年全年的9920亿美元。搁贸易史上，这可是首例，国家统计局 的数据也佐证了这个趋势。 回溯一下，2001年中国加入世贸组织时，顺差才225亿美元，那时候出口主要靠劳动力成本低。2005年破1000亿美元，2007年超2000亿美元。2008年金融危 机闹腾了一阵，顺差有点波动，但很快稳住。 2014年过3000亿美元，2015年接近6000亿美元。2022年上8000亿美元，2023年保持在8000多亿美元，2024年9920亿美元。今年前11个月就破万亿，全年估计 能到1.2万亿美元左右。这一路走来，中国制造业份额占全 ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the annual target of 5%[6] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.5%, showing slight stability despite external pressures[6] Production Insights - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with June's growth at 6.8%, up from 5.8% in May[13] - The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector was 74.0%, slightly down from 74.1% in Q1, indicating ongoing structural issues in certain industries[8] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half, but June saw a decline to 4.8%, marking a drop of 1.6 percentage points from May[25] - Service consumption maintained a high growth rate, with a 6.0% increase in June, although it showed signs of marginal weakening compared to May[20] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, with June's growth at just 0.4%, the first negative month-on-month change of the year[34] - Real estate investment faced significant challenges, with sales area and sales revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year in June, respectively[39] Risks and Challenges - The overall economic environment remains unbalanced, with low inflation and structural issues persisting, necessitating policy support to boost demand[10] - Trade uncertainties and potential domestic demand declines pose significant risks to economic stability[45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's economy remains stable in the second quarter, with manufacturing showing significant resilience and competitiveness, although structural issues such as supply-demand relationships and price-volume dynamics need to be balanced [1] - Despite external disturbances, China's economy has shown resilience in the second quarter, with growth rates exceeding annual targets; however, the demand side requires policy support [1] - The production side maintains a high growth rate, with strong performance in high-end manufacturing and export chains, while the real estate chain is relatively weak [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, there has been a slight decline in consumption and investment growth, with significant drops in June for restaurant consumption, infrastructure investment, and real estate sales [1] - Overall, issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low inflation persist, and it is expected that proactive policies will be implemented [1] - Future measures should focus on optimizing real estate policies, increasing infrastructure investment, and boosting consumer spending to expand domestic demand and promote a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [1] Group 3 - Additionally, there is a need to address overcapacity in the production sector through "anti-involution" strategies, reducing ineffective supply, and optimizing the economic structure [1]