| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8510 | 8490 | 20 | 0.24% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | -0.29% | Y2601 | 8144 | 8168 | -24 | 期价 | | 墓差 | 13.66% | Y2601 | 366 | 322 | 44 | 01+280 | 01+270 | 10 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | - | | 仓单 | 24625 | 24625 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8370 | 8430 | -0.71% | 广东 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王法框 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月18日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8590 | 8590 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 8256 | 0.31% | Y2601 | 8282 | 26 | 期价 | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 308 | 334 | -26 | -7.78% | 现货墓差报价 | 01+270 | 01+270 | 0 | 江苏1月 | 5 | | 24993 | -216 | 仓单 | 24777 | -0.86% | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | -0.23% | 广东24度 | 8570 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may weaken to 4000 ringgit due to potential negative impacts from MPOA production growth and a significant decline in exports in the first five days of November. After the release of the MPOB supply report, it may gradually stop falling and start to recover. In China, it may test the 8500 yuan support level. - CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, demand is weak, and the basis quote has limited fluctuation space [1]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. Chinese sugar prices are also under pressure but are relatively resistant to decline. The spot market remains tepid, and prices will generally fluctuate at a low level [4]. Corn Industry - In the short - term, corn prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and farmers are reluctant to sell. In the long - term, imports remain low, demand is resilient, and policy regulation will support prices [5]. Cotton Industry - The cost of new cotton provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. Downstream demand is weak, but finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [8]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices may be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually start to rise, and are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [10]. Meal Industry - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is at a high level, but the cost - side support is strengthening. The downside space is limited, and the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [12]. Pig Industry - The pig market supply is relatively loose, and pig prices have weakened. However, the slowdown in the planned November slaughter volume may boost prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 inverse spread and operate with caution [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu Grade - 1 soybean oil was 8420 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was 312 yuan, down 22.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8616 yuan on November 5, down 0.30%. The futures price of P2601 was 8590 yuan, down 0.23%. The basis was - 46 yuan, up 13.04% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade - 3 rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan on November 5, down 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9407 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis was 343 yuan, up 4.89% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan, up 10.59%; that of palm oil was - 106 yuan, down 32.50%; and that of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan, down 4.96% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of sugar 2601 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; sugar 2605 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; ICE raw sugar was 14.12 cents/pound, down 0.63% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5700 yuan, down 0.18%; in Kunming was 5660 yuan, down 0.35%. The Nanning basis was 307 yuan, up 10.04%; the Kunming basis was 267 yuan, up 7.23% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; sales were 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 41.20% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On November 5, the price of corn 2601 was 2134 yuan, down 0.05%. The basis was 16 yuan, up 6.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan, down 4.12% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2451 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was 59 yuan, down 10.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan, unchanged [5]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of cotton 2605 was 13620 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; cotton 2601 was 13612 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The ICE US cotton was 65.07 cents/pound, down 0.12% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14627 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14825 yuan, down 0.11% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 68.4%; the industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10.00 million tons, up 42.9% [8]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3217 yuan/500KG, up 2.32%; the 01 - contract was 3385 yuan/500KG, up 1.44% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.88 yuan/jin, up 0.22%. The basis was - 333 yuan/500KG, down 25.10% [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, up 5.66%; the price of culled chickens was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 4.20% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3030 yuan, down 0.66%. The futures price of M2601 was 3073 yuan, up 1.92%. The basis was - 43 yuan, down 222.86% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2550 yuan, up 0.79%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2537 yuan, up 1.60%. The basis was 13 yuan, down 60.61% [12]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean - 1 main contract was 4123 yuan, up 1.68%. The basis was - 203 yuan, down 50.37% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the pig 2605 contract was 12040 yuan/ton, up 1.52%; the 2601 contract was 11945 yuan/ton, up 2.23%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 95 yuan, up 45.71% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 11800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Shandong was 12100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 11400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 159258, up 0.79%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.70 yuan/kg, up 1.25% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as "Oscillating"; glass and soda ash are rated as "Adjusting" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and 2-year, 5-year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10-year treasury bond is rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High-level Oscillating" [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs are rated as "Treated Bullishly"; pulp is rated as "Bottom Consolidation"; offset paper is rated as "Weak Oscillation" [5] - **Oil and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Wide-range Oscillation" [5] - **Feedstuffs**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Rebounding" [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Oscillating Bullishly" [6] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "On the Sidelines"; PTA is rated as "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market has an oversupply situation that is difficult to reverse, and the steel market's demand is weak. The coal coke market is affected by safety inspections and low steel mill profits. The glass market is weak with increasing inventory [2] - **Financial Industry**: The stock index market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and the treasury bond market has a slight upward trend. The gold market is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - **Light Industry**: The log market has improved demand and cost support, while the pulp market has weak demand and cost pressure [5] - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fats market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation [5] - **Feedstuffs**: The feedstuffs market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: The live pig market has sufficient supply and weak demand, with short-term weak oscillation [6] - **Soft Commodities**: The rubber market is affected by weather and demand, showing wide-range oscillation. The polyester market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties [7] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price may hit a new low if negative feedback occurs. Four main lines should be closely monitored [2] - **Coal Coke**: The market is concerned about demand-side policies. Supply concerns have increased, and the low profit of steel mills may lead to production cuts [2] - **Rolled Steel**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The price stop-falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak with increasing inventory. The possibility of cold repair is increasing, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The demand has improved, and the cost support has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be bullish [5] - **Pulp**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset Paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation. Attention should be paid to weather and production and sales changes [5] Feedstuffs - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, and Soybean No. 1**: The market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations. Attention should be paid to weather and trade negotiations [5][6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [6] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [7] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the price trends [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation adjustment [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [4] - CSI 300: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bullish outlook [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - MPOB oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with the pattern of oversupply difficult to reverse. However, short - term prices have support due to potential macro - sentiment improvement [2] - The coking coal market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns from safety inspections, with the core contradiction being the low profit of steel mills [2] - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate and adjust, with the market awaiting policy boosts [2] - The glass market is in a weak state, with demand dragged down by the real - estate sector, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The stock index market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - The precious metal market, especially gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at high levels, influenced by factors such as central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] - The log market is expected to be bullish, with improved demand, rising cost expectations, and potential optimization of delivery rules [5] - The pulp market is expected to consolidate at the bottom due to weak cost support and poor demand [5] - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [5] - The粕类 market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to seasonal supply pressure and weak demand [5][8] - The live - pig market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to sufficient supply and weak demand [8] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely, with supply affected by weather and demand recovering [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different trends, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is loose with high port arrivals expected, and the oversupply pattern persists. Trade frictions may cause price drops, but macro - sentiment improvement provides short - term support. Four key factors need to be monitored for price re - pricing [2] - **Coking coal**: Macro - policy expectations are high, but supply concerns from safety inspections have limited impact on the market. The low profit of steel mills is the core issue [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and the market is waiting for demand recovery in October. High inventory and weak demand require rapid de - stocking for price stabilization [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak, with low demand due to the real - estate downturn. Inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term consolidation, and it is recommended to hold long positions as bullish sentiment rises [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels, driven by central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Demand is improving, cost is expected to rise, and delivery rules may be optimized, making the market bullish [5] - **Pulp**: Cost support is weak, and demand is poor, so the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, demand is general, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - The market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [5] Agricultural Products - **粕类**: Seasonal supply pressure is high, and demand is weak, so the market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5][8] - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with limited upward space [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are mainly affected by oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost, with different trends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].