1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from Guangfa Futures and cover various industries including oils, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 26, 2026 [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soybean oil, the speculation of favorable US biodiesel policy boosts CBOT soybean oil, but domestic pre - Spring Festival factors limit continuous long positions. Supply is sufficient, and the basis quote may still decline in the short - term [1] - Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short correction. Domestic port inventory decline and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations support the market [1] - Rapeseed oil maintains a wide - range shock. The 05 contract faces hedging pressure, and the basis quote of reserve rapeseed oil slightly declines [1] Data Summary - Soybean oil: The price of Y2605 on January 23 was 8094 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day. The basis was 476 yuan, down 7.75% [1] - Palm oil: The price of P2605 on January 23 was 8910 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 53.85% [1] - Rapeseed oil: The price of OIROS on January 23 was 8991 yuan, down 0.12%. The basis remained unchanged [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US cotton maintains a low - level shock. Domestic cotton consumption is high due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills, and the basis is strong. The expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area provides support. Attention should be paid to the support around 14,500 yuan [2] Data Summary - Cotton 2605 on January 23 was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.62% [2] - Spot prices such as Xinjiang 3128B increased, and the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 9.36% [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thai sugar production is slow. Raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level shock between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level shock this week due to factors such as insufficient peak - season consumption and approaching the end of Spring Festival stocking [3] Data Summary - Sugar 2605 on January 23 was 5180 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 16.43% year - on - year [3] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market focuses on peak - season consumption. Sellers are actively shipping, and pre - holiday stocking may drive up spot prices. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upside is limited by hedging pressure [4] Data Summary - Jujube 2605 on January 23 was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The open interest decreased by 2.38% [4] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the arrival of the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the stocking atmosphere in some producing areas has improved. Good - quality apples have firm prices, while poor - quality ones face high inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to be strong due to low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and short - covering [5] Data Summary - Apple 2605 on January 23 was 9535 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% week - on - week [5] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of corn is relatively tight in the short - term, and pre - holiday stocking demand supports the price. However, continuous policy corn auctions and limited high - price transmission restrict the upside. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release intensity [7] Data Summary - Corn 2603 on January 23 was 2300 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The open interest increased by 2.33% [7] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices are strengthening again, but the supply pressure will increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock as the main focus is on the post - holiday off - season [10] Data Summary - The main hog contract on January 23 was 1685 yuan, up 5.31%. The slaughter volume increased by 1.79% [10] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are expected to be strong due to macro factors and biodiesel policy. Domestic supply is abundant, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low, and the meal price is expected to be in a shock range [13] Data Summary - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal on January 23 was 3080 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 increased by 5.45% [13] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Egg production is stable and sufficient. The demand may weaken as the Spring Festival stocking nears the end and group purchases decrease. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price eggs [14] Data Summary - The egg 03 contract on January 23 was 3046 yuan/500KG, down 1.58%. The basis increased by 26.72% [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].