铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月21日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：近远端缺乏共振，或限制价格上涨空间 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：90000-95000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 COMEX和LME价差回落至220美元/吨左右 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-1 ...

日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 铜期货日报 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价上涨，隔夜美联储如期降息 25BP，市场情绪受到提振，铜价上涨，沪铜主力 最高涨至 9.3 万，但日内随着 A 股开盘后持续走弱，市场抛售情绪增加带动铜价 回落。现货涨 965 至 92665，现货升水跌 25 至 5，临近年末持货商抛售情绪增加， 叠加 12 合约即将结束，现货升水快速下行。周内社库再度累库 0.27 万吨，高铜 价抑 ...

证券代码：002652 证券简称：扬子新材 苏州扬子江新型材料股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 投资者关系活动 类别 □特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □ 媒体采访 □ 业绩说明会 □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □ 现场参观 ☑ 其他 （投资者集体接待日活动） 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 投资者网上提问 时间 2025 年 12 月 2 日 15:30-17:00 地点 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net） 采用网络远程的方式召开 上市公司接待人 员姓名 1、董事会秘书丁富君 2、证券事务代表周泽旭 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况 公司就投资者在本次说明会中提出的问题进行了回复： 1、公司有无在人型机器人涂料中进行布局？ 您好，公司主营业务为有机彩涂板的研发、生产和销售。谢 谢！ 2、公司在新能源领域的布局进展如何?面对竞争日益激烈的 市场环境，如何保证公司的技术优势和市场份额?这对于我 们投资者来说，意味着怎样的增长潜力和风险? 您好，公司暂未布局新能源领域，感谢您的关注！ 3、长期股权投资和非流动金融资产保持稳定，但未见详细 的投资项目说 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Development Group Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 37.965 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 36.05% to 2.159 billion yuan [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 37.965 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42% [1][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.159 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 36.05% compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute approximately 350 million yuan in mid-term dividends, which represents 16.24% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [7]. Business Operations - Guangzhou Development is engaged in green low-carbon comprehensive smart energy, energy conservation, environmental protection, and energy finance, making it one of the key comprehensive energy enterprises in Guangdong Province [3]. - The company reported a decrease of 43.12% in net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, attributed to lower profits from coal trading and reduced investment income from associated enterprises [4][6]. - The company completed a total power generation of 18.915 billion kWh and gas supply of 449.424 million cubic meters in the first nine months, with respective year-on-year growths of 1.70% and 1.83% [6]. Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholder, Guangzhou Industrial Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., increased its stake in Guangzhou Development by acquiring approximately 20.55 million shares, raising its total shareholding to 57.94% [3]. - The company appointed Jiang Yun as the secretary of the board and Xu Zilu as the securities affairs representative [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guangzhou Development is actively pursuing the issuance of REITs and has accelerated the establishment of a green low-carbon industry fund to enhance resource integration and industrial collaboration [3]. - The company has made significant progress in its energy storage business, with a total installed capacity of new energy storage projects reaching 196 MW/345 MWh, a year-on-year increase of 830% [6][7].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a positive trend, with the main copper futures contract rising by 1.27% to 86,070.00 yuan/ton [1] - Macro factors include a proposal by several European countries in collaboration with Ukraine to end the war with Russia, supervised by a peace committee led by Trump, which has led to a decrease in market risk aversion and a subsequent drop in gold and silver prices, impacting copper prices [1] - The copper mining sector is experiencing disturbances that limit the decline in copper prices, with previous incidents in Indonesian copper mines still providing support, and current copper concentrate port inventories significantly lower year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Consumption in traditional industries is slowing down, but there are high expectations for increased copper consumption in the renewable energy and AI sectors, although high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption in the short term [1] - Looking ahead, there is optimism in the market regarding trade agreements due to Trump's planned visit to China, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on copper prices [2] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84,000 to 86,000 yuan, with caution advised regarding changes in the refined copper demand due to variations in the refined-to-scrap copper price ratio [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company signed a significant steel purchase contract worth 165 million yuan with China Railway Shanghai Engineering Bureau, which is expected to positively impact its performance in 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The steel purchase contract is for the construction of the Shijiazhuang to Xiong'an New Area railway project, with a contract duration from September 9, 2025, to December 31, 2028 [1]. - The contract amount is 165 million yuan, including tax [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.473 billion yuan, an increase of 8.85% compared to 1.353 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The total profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 74.66%, while net profit rose by 70.98%, driven by increased sales of prestressed products, track slabs, and related services [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The company's industry is closely linked to national infrastructure investment, with the prestressed materials sector expected to maintain steady growth in the coming years [2]. - The company aims to strengthen its market position in traditional infrastructure sectors while actively exploring new energy applications, leveraging its technological advantages in prestressed materials [2].

Summary of the Conference Call for Wansheng Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Wansheng Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Flame Retardants and Functional Additives Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: In the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65% to 26.32 million yuan, primarily due to losses from Shandong Wansheng and increased depreciation costs from new production lines [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow decreased by 100 million yuan year-on-year, influenced by bill discounting and U.S. anti-dumping deposits [2][3] - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.623 billion yuan, a 17% increase, mainly due to the consolidation of Guangzhou Shuangneng's revenue [3] Product Performance - **Sales Volume**: Total sales volume increased by 6.29% to 105,400 tons, with polymer functional additives up by 7.81% [5] - **Flame Retardants**: Sales of flame retardants decreased by 6% due to anti-dumping duties in Europe and the U.S. [5] - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for polymer functional additives was 24%, while the gross margin for flame retardants fell by 3 percentage points to 20% due to the same duties [5] Key Projects and Developments - **New Projects**: Major ongoing projects include: - Shandong Weifang Phase III (expected to start production in October 2024) - Guangzhou Shuangneng Phase II (ASA refrigerants and MBS toughening agents) - Thailand 32,000-ton flame retardant project (expected trial production in June 2026) [2][6][7] - **Production Capacity**: The Thailand facility aims to mitigate tariffs and is expected to generate a net profit of 30 to 50 million yuan upon full production [11] Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Demand Growth**: Future demand for flame retardants is expected to grow in the new energy sector, including electric vehicles, charging stations, and photovoltaic equipment [4][14] - **High-frequency Copper Clad Laminate Market**: This market is rapidly growing, driven by the proliferation of smart electronic products [4][18] - **Regulatory Impact**: The upcoming strict battery safety regulations in July 2026 will require collaboration with research institutions to develop compliant products [16] Competitive Landscape - **Industry Competition**: The industry has high barriers to entry due to technical requirements and strict supplier standards, limiting new entrants [21] - **Market Position**: Wansheng Co. is positioned as a leading global flame retardant supplier, with strong relationships with downstream customers [21] Challenges and Risks - **Tariff Impact**: The company faces significant tariffs in the U.S. and Europe, which have affected pricing strategies and profit margins [12][10] - **Market Pricing**: Despite claims of stable pricing, actual prices for exports to the U.S. and Europe have increased due to high tariffs, while domestic prices for certain products have reached low points [9] Conclusion - **Growth Projections**: The company anticipates annual revenue growth of 10% to 15% and an annual increase in EVITA profit of 15% to 20% in the long term, supported by new production capacities and ongoing R&D efforts [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for the time being, but the industry expectations have warmed up, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 63,880 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 70,067 lots, up 9,339 lots; the position of the main contract was 338,034 lots, up 15,500 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,360 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GME were 15,555 lots/ton, down 5,481 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 5,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,691 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume was 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total position of call options was 109,977 lots, down 78,188 lots; the total position of put options was 44,356 lots, down 55,958 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 40.33%, down 12.9797 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.23%, up 0.0119 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Shanghai Xiba plans to participate in the auction of the lithium sulfide business - related assets publicly listed for transfer by Youyan Rare Earth; Langte Intelligent invests 15 million yuan to set up a venture capital partnership; from January to June 2025, the average price cut of new energy vehicles was 23,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 12%, and in June, it was 15,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 10.4%; CATL and Geely Auto signed a strategic cooperation agreement [2]. Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green column slightly expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to perform well in the long term despite recent price fluctuations. The report notes a slight increase of 0.33% in domestic spot gold prices and highlights improving international trade conditions, which may influence gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Industrial metal prices have mostly declined, with specific changes noted in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices. However, demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to offset declines in traditional industries [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight increase, while international trade issues are showing signs of improvement [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have varied, with copper prices slightly increasing by 0.3% [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements like praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, indicating a potential rise in demand due to manufacturing recovery [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The report includes various tables summarizing price changes for different metals, indicating overall market trends [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include the resumption of production at a major nickel plant in Indonesia and the discovery of a significant copper deposit by Lundin Mining in South America [41][42].