Market Overview - The US dollar index faced slight pressure this week, dipping below the 99 mark, and is expected to close lower for the second consecutive week. The longest government shutdown in US history has ended, but key economic data will take time to be released. Fed officials have signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December [1] - Precious metals prices rose overall, with spot gold reaching a high of $4245 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying. Spot silver saw a similar trend but with a larger increase, rising nearly 10% at one point. However, both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline on Friday, narrowing their weekly gains [1] - Oil prices for WTI and Brent crude saw significant mid-week declines followed by a rebound. OPEC's latest report adjusted its forecast for a "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" for Q3, while the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting that demand will stop growing by the end of this decade [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The US government shutdown has ended, but key economic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI remain absent. The shutdown is estimated to have caused a GDP decline of over 0.1%. The release of economic data may take months to normalize due to staffing shortages and leadership vacancies [6][7] - Market analysis suggests that unless there are significant surprises in delayed data, the rationale for a third rate cut by the Fed this year is rapidly diminishing. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is now at 51.6%, down from 95.5% a month ago [8][9] - Several Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, indicating a preference for maintaining current rates due to high inflation and the absence of key data. The Fed's stance is complicated by internal disagreements among officials regarding the economic outlook and policy direction [9][10] Corporate Developments - Nomura expects the Fed to pause rate cuts in December, while UBS predicts that global gold demand will reach its highest level since 2011 this year and next. JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts gold prices to exceed $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5] - Alibaba has reportedly launched a secret project called "Qianwen," aimed at developing a personal AI assistant to compete with ChatGPT. This initiative is seen as a significant move to integrate AI capabilities into its e-commerce platform [24] - SoftBank has completed the liquidation of its Nvidia shares, raising $5.83 billion to fund an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI. This decision has led to a significant drop in SoftBank's stock price [25][26] Geopolitical Events - The US has initiated "Operation Southern Shield" to combat drug-related terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, with military actions already taken against suspected drug trafficking vessels [11][12] - Venezuela is preparing for potential military action from the US by deploying guerrilla tactics, having established combat positions at over 280 sites [13][14] - Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following bombings in both capitals, leading to a declaration of war readiness by Pakistan [19]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by approximately 560 points, while technology stocks showed weak performance [2] - Oil prices increased, with strong fuel market performance offsetting weak signals from crude oil [2] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped reversal following the release of U.S. employment data, with silver rising by 1.5% and palladium increasing by over 2.2% [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - SoftBank liquidated its position in NVIDIA, cashing out over $5.8 billion to finance various AI projects [3] - AMD anticipates accelerated revenue growth driven by demand for data center products [3] - FedEx's stock price rose as its earnings guidance alleviated concerns regarding the holiday season [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock surged following significant announcements, including the withdrawal from a bidding process, which received support from Wall Street [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing down, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury futures [2][3] - Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating, predicting potential cash exhaustion by November next year, which could lead to a "junk bond" status [3] - The largest U.S. Chinese concept stock ETF management company significantly increased its holdings in Pinduoduo and TAL Education [3]

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, leading to a rise in US Treasury futures and a decline in the dollar [4] - The ADP Research data indicates a potential drop in the labor market, with a 4 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 4.12% [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with swap contracts indicating over 60% probability for a cut next month [4] Group 2: SoftBank and Nvidia - SoftBank Group sold all its shares in Nvidia for $58.3 billion to fund various AI projects, amidst investor concerns about the uncertain future returns from AI investments [9] - The sale coincides with ongoing debates in the industry regarding the substantial investments by major tech companies and their expected returns [10] - Following the announcement, SoftBank's American Depositary Receipts rose by 7.2%, while Nvidia's stock fell by 3.3% [10] Group 3: AMD's Growth Projections - AMD anticipates accelerated revenue growth driven by strong demand for its data center products, projecting an annual growth rate exceeding 35% over the next three to five years [12] - The company expects its AI data center revenue to grow at an annual rate of 80% during the same period, benefiting from partnerships with companies like OpenAI and Oracle [12] - AMD's stock has approximately doubled this year, reflecting the validation of its product quality and technology capabilities [12] Group 4: Currency and Economic Predictions - Stephen Jen, founder of the "Dollar Smile" theory, predicts that the dollar will decline by nearly 14% during the remainder of Trump's presidency, despite a recent rebound [14] - Jen attributes the expected decline to accelerating overseas economic growth and the unpredictable trade policies under Trump, which have contributed to the dollar's weakness [14] Group 5: UK Stablecoin Regulation - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden warned that further easing of stablecoin regulations could threaten financial stability and lead to credit tightening [16] - New regulations for "systemically important stablecoins" have been introduced, including a limit on individual holdings and a requirement for issuers to deposit 40% of their reserve assets with the Bank of England [16] - The new rules represent a shift from previous regulatory stances, although the crypto industry believes they may still hinder stablecoin development in the UK [16]