证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 海外市场 2026 年五大猜想：入口争夺大年 猜想一：模型能力有望持续突破。展望未来，我们认为 AI 模型能力仍处于持续进 化通道，2026 年有望在加强多模态推理与生成能力、提升超长上下文处理能力及 降低模型幻觉率等维度上取得突破。在应用场景方面，这有望促进内容产业工业 化、世界模型演进，也有望加速智能体迭代、及支撑 AI 向更专业的行业级与科研 级应用延伸。 猜想二：AI 应用进入流量入口争夺大年。1）在 C 端入口的争夺上，头部互联网 厂商如阿里巴巴、字节跳动、腾讯等凭借领先的模型能力与丰富的业务生态，具备 先发优势。2）B 端应用方面，AI Coding、AI 营销、AI4S 有望成为率先突围的领 域。我们预计 2026 年，C 端入口的争夺会演化为软硬结合与生态丰富度的竞争， 而 B 端应用的渗透率会随着模型多模态、上下文处理、幻觉率优化等能力的提升 而持续加速。 猜想三：端侧智能硬件迎来安卓时刻。展望 2026，我们认为，端侧硬件中，1）手 机和 PC 市场或因存储成本上涨而带来终端销量承压，但折叠机等创新点仍 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **Google's Gemini 3 Pro**, a state-of-the-art multimodal AI model that showcases significant advancements in visual understanding and processing capabilities across various data types including text, images, audio, video, and code [1][2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance and Innovation**: Gemini 3 Pro is recognized as the world's strongest visual understanding model, leading in 20 out of 21 evaluation dimensions. It introduces the **Deepseek mode** to reduce hallucination rates and employs the **Mamba principle** to optimize the relationship between Transformer inference power and sequence length, enhancing the processing of long series data [2][4][7]. - **Training Methodology**: The model is trained on **14TB of data** using a GPU-based adaptive intelligent optimization paradigm. It utilizes a segmented training approach combined with reinforcement learning and test-time strategies to improve abstract reasoning capabilities [4][5]. - **Multimodal Capabilities**: Gemini 3 Pro is designed as a native multimodal model, capable of unified encoding and processing of various data types. This design allows for powerful multimedia content generation and understanding, significantly enhancing user experience [5][6]. - **Comparative Performance**: While Gemini 3 Pro excels in humanities and emotional intelligence dimensions, it does not surpass competitors like Claude 4.5 in programming capabilities, where Claude scores **80.9** compared to Gemini's lower performance [2][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Challenges in Asian Markets**: Overseas models struggle with processing Chinese content due to a lack of focus on Eastern elements during development, leading to issues in accurately displaying Asian language characters. This presents a barrier for these models in the Chinese market [9][12]. - **Technological Advantages of TPU**: Google’s use of its proprietary TPU chips for large-scale model training offers advantages such as lower costs, higher energy efficiency, and greater memory capacity compared to competitors using NVIDIA GPUs [10][16]. - **Future Competitive Landscape**: The AI landscape is evolving into a three-way competition among Google, Grok, and OpenAI. While Google currently leads, it is anticipated that Grok may close the gap, with OpenAI also showing potential in multimodal capabilities [10][11]. - **Knowledge Graphs and AI Hallucination**: Knowledge graphs are being explored as a means to reduce AI hallucination rates by providing verified information, although widespread application remains a challenge due to data acquisition costs and industry-specific requirements [21]. Conclusion - Google’s Gemini 3 Pro sets a new standard in the AI industry with its comprehensive capabilities and innovative training methods. However, challenges remain in addressing language processing for Asian markets and maintaining competitive advantages against emerging rivals.

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets surged overnight, with Hong Kong stocks following suit, as major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent saw significant gains, indicating a strong market response to recent developments in the AI sector and U.S. policy changes [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened 0.9% higher, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.43% [1]. - Key tech stocks such as Alibaba-W increased by 3.82%, Bilibili-W and Xiaomi Group-W both surged over 4%, and Kuaishou-W rose over 3% [1][2]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) experienced a price increase of 2.71%, recovering above the 10-day moving average, suggesting a potential new upward trend [1][4]. Group 2: AI Sector Impact - The U.S. announced the "Genesis Plan," aimed at leveraging AI to transform scientific research, which positively impacted the AI industry and led to a 2.82% rise in the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index [3][4]. - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen APP, achieved over 10 million downloads within a week of its public testing, surpassing other AI applications, indicating strong market interest and potential for future monetization [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has seen significant inflows, with 8 out of the last 10 days recording capital increases totaling 118 million yuan [4][6]. - The ETF tracks major internet companies, with Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W being the top three holdings, collectively accounting for over 73% of the fund [6]. - The ETF's latest scale exceeds 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 600 million yuan, highlighting its liquidity and attractiveness for investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The AI application sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the surge in downloads of Alibaba's Qianwen app, indicating a positive trend in the commercialization of AI applications and benefiting related industries such as data centers and computing equipment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The AI application sector saw a collective rise, with several stocks related to Alibaba experiencing notable increases, including BlueFocus (300058) up over 15% and 360 (601360) hitting the daily limit [2]. - Active trading was observed in the AI application sector, with Vision China (000681) achieving a transaction volume of 5.614 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 32.12% [2]. - Major inflows of funds were noted, with iFLYTEK (002230) seeing a net inflow of 372 million yuan, while Inspur Information (000977) and Tianyu Digital Science (002354) had net inflows of 202 million yuan and 238 million yuan, respectively [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - Alibaba announced that its Qianwen app surpassed 10 million downloads within a week of public testing, reflecting strong consumer interest in AI applications [2]. - Ant Group launched a multimodal AI assistant named "Lingguang," which achieved over 1 million downloads within four days, topping the free tools category in the Apple App Store in China [3]. - Tencent's Hunyuan model team released the HunyuanVideo 1.5, a video generation model capable of producing 5-10 second high-definition videos [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts express optimism regarding the commercialization prospects of AI applications, anticipating a significant breakthrough as model capabilities continue to improve [7]. - The upstream AI industry remains robust, with expectations of sustained high growth in computing power and AI chip demand, which will drive the need for storage and data centers [7]. - Alibaba's new AI products and models are expected to create increased demand for AI infrastructure, with a focus on data center operations and related equipment [7]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Concerns about an AI bubble in international markets have led some analysts to suggest that the Chinese market may offer diversification opportunities for investors [5]. - JR Research highlighted that leading Chinese AI companies are narrowing the gap with global leaders without excessive spending on AI infrastructure, making investments in Alibaba potentially advantageous [5]. - Alibaba's strong fundamentals and superior free cash flow margins position it favorably for rational investment, with projected capital expenditures totaling 55.4 billion dollars from fiscal years 2026 to 2028 [5].

Group 1 - The internet sector in Hong Kong experienced a strong rally, with notable gains in stocks such as Kuaishou-W up 6.80%, NetEase-S up 5.96%, and Alibaba up 5.35% as of November 24, 2025 [1] - Alibaba's Qianwen APP was launched, integrating various life scenarios like maps, food delivery, and ticket booking, aiming to create an AI lifestyle entry point [1] - Recent Q3 financial reports from Tencent and Bilibili showed impressive performance in revenue and net profit, contributing to the positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that platform advantages are reflected in the resilience of performance fundamentals, emphasizing the importance of R&D and application of AI technologies among leading internet companies [2] - The China Concept Internet ETF (159607) closely tracks the CSI Overseas China Internet 30 USD Index, which includes 30 Chinese internet companies listed in Hong Kong and other overseas exchanges [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Overseas China Internet 30 USD Index accounted for 86.72% of the index, including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Pinduoduo [2]

Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen app has launched its public beta, directly competing with ChatGPT, and has generated significant user interest in investment decision-making [2][4] - The app demonstrated impressive investment capabilities by winning a global AI investment competition with over 20% profitability, outperforming major models like ChatGPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro [4] - The launch faced high traffic, causing service disruptions, but Alibaba has responded by expanding capacity to ensure user access [6] Group 1 - The Qianwen app has become a platform for users to seek investment advice, with discussions on various hot topics such as gold buying points and stock replacements [2] - Users have reported that the app provides detailed and professional answers to investment-related queries, indicating its potential as an investment assistant [4] - Prominent investors have praised the app for its logical reasoning and practical application in the Chinese market, suggesting it could redefine AI in investment [6] Group 2 - The app's launch coincided with a surge in user engagement, leading to temporary service overloads, which the company is addressing through capacity expansion [6] - The competitive performance of Qianwen in the AI investment competition highlights its advanced capabilities compared to other global models, with significant implications for its market positioning [4] - The app's focus on financial investment optimization reflects a strategic move by Alibaba to integrate AI into investment practices, potentially reshaping the industry landscape [6]

Group 1 - Alibaba launched its Qwen-based AI assistant app, Qianwen, on November 14, directly competing with ChatGPT [1] - A White House national security memo cited intelligence suggesting Alibaba provided technical support to the Chinese military, raising concerns in the U.S. [1][2] - Alibaba denied the allegations, calling them baseless and an attempt to manipulate public perception [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government's scrutiny of Chinese tech companies is increasing, particularly regarding cloud services and AI developments [2][6] - Alibaba is one of the first domestic companies to open-source its self-developed large models, with over 300 models released and global downloads exceeding 600 million [4] - The company is reportedly revamping its main AI app to better compete with OpenAI's ChatGPT, indicating a significant investment in AI infrastructure [5][6] Group 3 - Concerns about the potential dominance of Chinese AI models have been voiced by U.S. figures, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who noted the geopolitical implications of open-source versus closed-source models [5][6] - The U.S. Congress has proposed the "No Adversarial AI Act" to prohibit federal agencies from using Chinese-developed AI models, reflecting a formal push to resist Chinese AI technology [6] - The emergence of Alibaba's Qianwen has sparked a "Qwen panic" in Silicon Valley, highlighting fears of losing competitive advantage in the AI space [6]

Market Overview - The US dollar index faced slight pressure this week, dipping below the 99 mark, and is expected to close lower for the second consecutive week. The longest government shutdown in US history has ended, but key economic data will take time to be released. Fed officials have signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December [1] - Precious metals prices rose overall, with spot gold reaching a high of $4245 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying. Spot silver saw a similar trend but with a larger increase, rising nearly 10% at one point. However, both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline on Friday, narrowing their weekly gains [1] - Oil prices for WTI and Brent crude saw significant mid-week declines followed by a rebound. OPEC's latest report adjusted its forecast for a "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" for Q3, while the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting that demand will stop growing by the end of this decade [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The US government shutdown has ended, but key economic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI remain absent. The shutdown is estimated to have caused a GDP decline of over 0.1%. The release of economic data may take months to normalize due to staffing shortages and leadership vacancies [6][7] - Market analysis suggests that unless there are significant surprises in delayed data, the rationale for a third rate cut by the Fed this year is rapidly diminishing. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is now at 51.6%, down from 95.5% a month ago [8][9] - Several Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, indicating a preference for maintaining current rates due to high inflation and the absence of key data. The Fed's stance is complicated by internal disagreements among officials regarding the economic outlook and policy direction [9][10] Corporate Developments - Nomura expects the Fed to pause rate cuts in December, while UBS predicts that global gold demand will reach its highest level since 2011 this year and next. JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts gold prices to exceed $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5] - Alibaba has reportedly launched a secret project called "Qianwen," aimed at developing a personal AI assistant to compete with ChatGPT. This initiative is seen as a significant move to integrate AI capabilities into its e-commerce platform [24] - SoftBank has completed the liquidation of its Nvidia shares, raising $5.83 billion to fund an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI. This decision has led to a significant drop in SoftBank's stock price [25][26] Geopolitical Events - The US has initiated "Operation Southern Shield" to combat drug-related terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, with military actions already taken against suspected drug trafficking vessels [11][12] - Venezuela is preparing for potential military action from the US by deploying guerrilla tactics, having established combat positions at over 280 sites [13][14] - Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following bombings in both capitals, leading to a declaration of war readiness by Pakistan [19]