Group 1 - Elon Musk criticized the large-scale tax and spending bill, calling it "absurd" and "disgusting," and stated that it would significantly increase the budget deficit to $2.5 trillion, burdening American citizens with unsustainable debt [2][3] - The bill, referred to as "big and beautiful" by President Trump, was narrowly passed by the Republican-controlled House and is currently under Senate review [2][3] - House Speaker Johnson expressed disappointment in Musk's public criticism, stating that Musk's actions were "dead wrong" despite their previous conversation where Musk seemed to understand the bill's importance [3] Group 2 - Musk's relationship with the Trump administration has soured, as he has had disputes with several cabinet members and announced his departure from the government efficiency department, which he found exhausting and detrimental to his company, Tesla [3][4] - Musk acknowledged existing disagreements with Trump on certain issues, indicating a desire not to publicly oppose the government while also refusing to take responsibility for its actions [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% to $3,299 due to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies leading to a weaker dollar and a decline in U.S. stocks, alongside ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine attracting safe-haven buying [1] - On May 21, gold continued to rise, reaching a one-week high of $3,314.36, driven by reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, further supporting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Investors are primarily focused on U.S. tax reform news, geopolitical developments, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as well as changes in international trade dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, gold prices dipped to $3,204 before rebounding, with recommendations to buy between $3,206 and $3,209, resulting in significant profits as gold prices surged during the European session [3] - The daily chart shows two consecutive bullish candles, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards, and KDJ indicators transitioning from overbought to a bullish crossover, while MACD indicators show a reduction in bearish momentum [3] - The hourly chart indicates a high of $3,314.3 before a pullback, currently trading around $3,294, with KDJ indicators showing a bearish crossover and MACD indicators indicating a consolidation above the zero line, suggesting a short-term bearish trend [3] Group 3 - Recommendations for trading include buying gold around $3,261 to $3,264 with a stop loss at $3,255 and a take profit target of $3,290 to $3,300 [5] - Additionally, a recommendation to sell gold around $3,317 to $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,325 and a take profit target of $3,290 is provided [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded after a decline. The market sentiment was bullish, but the copper price rally was expected to be unsmooth. The expected trading range for the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,400 - 78,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it was 9,400 - 9,650 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices recovered. The short - term price was expected to be range - bound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 20,000 - 20,280 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it was 2,450 - 2,510 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead index was expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price showed a strong - side oscillation [4]. - Zinc prices had a certain downward risk in the medium term as the zinc ingot social inventory increased [5]. - Tin supply was expected to loosen. If downstream demand remained weak, the tin price center might decline. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it was 30,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel prices followed a bearish trend. Attention should be paid to the change in LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium. The expected trading range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it was 15,000 - 16,300 dollars/ton [8]. - The lithium carbonate price was likely to oscillate at the bottom. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract was 60,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [10]. - For alumina, short - term waiting and seeing was recommended. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 was 2,800 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12]. - The stainless - steel market was expected to maintain a weak - side oscillation in the short term [14]. 3. Summary by Metal Types Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.4% at 9,554 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,140 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 16,000 tons to 46,000 tons [1]. - Price difference: The cash/3M premium was 3.2 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 390 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed up 1.85% at 2,481 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,185 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 6,000 lots to 516,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 tons to 61,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 458,000 tons [3]. - Price difference: The East China spot premium over futures was 70 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.11% at 16,852 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 27.5 dollars to 1,971.5 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,000 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased to 58,200 tons [4]. - Price difference: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22,249 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24.5 dollars to 2,668.5 dollars/ton [5]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 1,500 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,800 tons [5]. - Price difference: The Shanghai basis was 230 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - Market performance: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 264,760 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [6]. - Supply and demand: The mine supply was expected to loosen, and the downstream demand was weak [7]. Nickel - Market performance: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,540 yuan/ton, down 0.02%, and the LME main contract closed at 15,530 dollars/ton, up 0.19% [8]. - Raw materials: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [8]. - Inventory: The LME nickel inventory was 202,098 tons, an increase of 90 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index closed at 62,657 yuan, down 1.52%. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,860 yuan, down 0.52% [10]. - Supply and demand: There was a lack of strong drivers on the supply and demand side, and the price was expected to oscillate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.22% to 3,130 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot price: Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 54,000 tons to 190,300 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 1,2950 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14]. - Spot price: Spot prices in some markets decreased [14]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased by 12,582 tons to 143,780 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1,108,300 tons [14].

Core Viewpoint - The proposed tax reform bill in the U.S. is expected to increase the national deficit by at least $4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about its impact on the bond market and long-term U.S. debt sustainability [1][4]. Group 1: Tax Reform Bill Implications - The House version of the tax reform bill is projected to add approximately $3.8 trillion to the deficit by extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and increasing defense and immigration enforcement spending by $320 billion [2]. - The bill includes measures to recover $1 trillion in taxes but simultaneously introduces new tax cuts that could add another $1 trillion to the deficit [2]. - If the Senate does not alter the current wording, the bill could lead to an increase of about $2.5 trillion in the deficit over the next decade, excluding interest payments [2]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Outlook - The new tax cuts are set to expire in 2028, but historical trends suggest Congress may extend these cuts, potentially adding another $1.5 trillion to the deficit, bringing the total to $4 trillion [3][4]. - The U.S. borrowing for fiscal year 2024 is expected to exceed $2.5 trillion, with a slight decrease to below $2.1 trillion in 2025, although the actual financing needs may be closer to $2 trillion when accounting for other variables [5]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Deficit Dynamics - The progressive nature of the U.S. tax system means that during economic slowdowns, tax revenues often fall short of expectations, which could exacerbate the deficit if economic growth in 2025 is weaker than anticipated [6]. - Even without the tax reform bill, the deficit is projected to remain at least 6.5-7% of GDP during good economic times, and could significantly increase during economic downturns [6]. Group 4: Bond Market Reactions - Despite a likely slowdown in GDP growth, U.S. bond yields have been rising, driven by inflation concerns and capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside worries about the increasing deficit [7]. - The rising deficit is expected to lead to higher long-term interest rates, which in turn raises future interest payment obligations, creating a feedback loop of concern among bond investors [8].