美国缺电研究：数据中心建设重塑电力格局 20260226 摘要 市场对数据中心投资的叙事经历了三个阶段：从北美大厂资本开支指引 形成万亿美元投资共识，到产业链排产与供给紧张的交叉验证，再到对 ROI 与应用落地的担忧。近期，产业替代趋势、Token 调用量上行以及 特朗普的煤电表态强化了"电力约束"逻辑。 美国"缺电"的本质是数据中心资本开支预期增强引发电力系统负荷与 供给矛盾。2025 年美国峰值负荷预计 829GW，未来 5 年预计增长 166GW。实际需求（备案量 245GW）高于机构预测，稳定电源投运不 足，电网输电能力不足。 尽管存在 ROI 争议，市场当前更关注 AI 应用侧的 Token 调用量、英伟 达的出片与供给表现以及数据中心备案量等可观测指标，以验证需求强 度和资本开支的实际规模。 当前交易重点集中在燃气轮机供应链、火电供应链以及电力设备链条。 部分电力设备龙头按常规口径已反映到 2027 年业绩约 30 倍估值，市 场可能进一步按照 2028 年 30 倍进行定价，但更可能呈现高位震荡特 征。 Q&A 2025 年以来，市场对"美国缺电"主题的认知与交易主线经历了哪些阶段性 变化，核心 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the projected electricity shortfall in the United States, particularly focusing on the impact of GPU clusters from NVIDIA, which are expected to consume a significant amount of power by 2027 [1] - The estimated electricity generation capacity for the U.S. in 2024 is approximately 4,309 TWh, translating to an average generation capacity of around 492 GW [1] - By 2028, the projected electricity shortfall is estimated to be around 50 GW, which represents about 9% of the actual electricity generation [3] Group 1 - In 2027, NVIDIA's GPU clusters are expected to consume between 150-200 GW of electricity, while the total electricity consumption of data centers in 2023 was only 20 GW [1] - The net summer capacity for electricity generation in the U.S. in 2024 is projected to be around 1,230 GW, with a nameplate capacity of approximately 1,325 GW, indicating a significant difference between installed capacity and actual average generation [1] - A previous estimate in 2024 indicated that the electricity shortfall was about 1.1% of the actual generation, which has now increased to 9% by 2028 [2][3] Group 2 - There are issues with electricity transmission in the U.S., particularly highlighted by Texas, where a new 2 GW project has struggled to find more than 1 GW of new supply [4] - The quality of electricity supplied to mining operations is reportedly poor, leading to concerns about the viability of current locations for construction [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report addresses the increasing concerns regarding electricity shortages in the U.S., focusing on the extent of shortages, the integration of data centers into the grid, and the economic viability of self-built power sources for data centers [3][6] Summary by Sections Objective Indicators of Electricity Shortages - In 2024, the average power outage duration for U.S. electricity users increased significantly to 662.6 minutes, approximately 11 hours, marking an 81% year-on-year increase and the highest level in nearly a decade, indicating a substantial worsening of electricity shortages [7][18] - The average retail electricity price in the U.S. reached 13.54 cents per kWh from January to August 2025, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with the PJM region seeing an average price of 13.14 cents per kWh, up 9% [23][24] Impact of Power Plant Retirements and Load Transfers - From 2025 to 2030, approximately 54 GW of thermal power plants are expected to retire, and around 10.3 GW of cryptocurrency mining facilities may exit the market due to rising electricity prices. If these plants do not retire and the mining facilities exit, the total potential relief for electricity shortages could be about 53.49 GW, which is only 36.2% of the previously predicted 201 GW shortage [8][27] Policy Developments for Data Center Integration - The U.S. Department of Energy has initiated a rule-making process to ensure large electricity loads, such as AI data centers, can connect to interstate grid systems in a timely and non-discriminatory manner. This trend is supported by various state policies encouraging data centers to match local resources [9][31] Project Developments in Data Center Energy Storage - There is a growing number of projects where AI data centers are integrating energy storage solutions. For instance, the GW Ranch off-grid power park in Texas plans to pair 5 GW of gas power with 1.8 GW of storage, while the Masdar&EWEC project in Abu Dhabi will provide 5.2 GW of solar and 19 GWh of storage for a 1 GW data center [10][38] Economic Comparison of Power Sources - The estimated costs per kWh for various power generation technologies are as follows: natural gas combined cycle at $0.0468, distributed internal combustion engines at $0.0608, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) at $0.0717, and solar plus storage at $0.0815. Natural gas generation is deemed the most cost-effective option [11][42] Capital Expenditure Implications for Internet Giants - The initial investment increase for data centers due to self-built power sources is relatively modest, with combined cycle units increasing costs by about 6%, distributed engines by 9%, SOFC by 7%, and solar plus storage by 16%. The report suggests that electricity shortages will not hinder AI development but rather drive infrastructure investment [12][46]

Group 1 - The core topic of the articles revolves around the increasing discussions on electricity shortages in the U.S. and the potential for power export, which is expected to create significant value for companies in the industry [1] - Companies mentioned, such as Jinpan and Igor, have recently performed well, indicating a positive market response to the electricity shortage narrative [1] - The article highlights that the electricity shortage in the U.S. is anticipated to be a main theme in the future, providing considerable value increments for companies within the supply chain [1] Group 2 - Delta's HVDC solutions and the related supply chain companies are discussed, emphasizing the exploration of value in power export and the U.S. electricity system [2] - The acquisition of Power Distribution by Eaton, which marks the arrival of the liquid cooling 2.0 era, is analyzed, suggesting a shift in technology and market dynamics [2] - The article mentions ongoing discussions and data regarding AI-related companies in the context of power export within a dedicated community platform [2]