202[Table_ReportInfo] 6 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告•金融工程专题报告 资产配置研究系列三 基于 BLACK-LITTERMAN 模型 融合资产择时与风格轮动的资产配置研究 在全球经济周期缩短、地缘政治冲突与技术革命叠加的背景下，市场"不确定性" 已成为投资管理的核心挑战，构建抗脆弱的组合是资本稳健增值的关键。传统均 值-方差模型（MVO）虽为资产配置基石，却因输入参数敏感性高、难以系统融合 主观观点而受限。Black-Litterman（BL）模型通过贝叶斯方法将市场均衡收益与 投资者观点结合，在量化严谨性中兼容主观判断，为机构资产配置提供新范式。 本文基于 BL模型原理，构建"战略+战术"双轮驱动的资产配置模型。战略端以 资产择时与回归分析生成资产收益后验分布，提升配置决策的前瞻性；战术端设 计 A股风格轮动策略，动态跟踪市场风格切换优化投资组合，增强 A股资产收益 表现。模型实现了长期战略配置与短期战术调整的有机结合，为大类资产配置提 供了系统性解决方案。 资产择时层 债券端立足经济基本面（经济增长、地产周期）与市场利率（质押回购、国债利 率）择时中债国债；商品端围绕黄金 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：泓湖投资 近期，多只主要宽基指数的ETF基金出现成交量显著放大、场内份额明显减少的现象，引发市场关注。 由于这些ETF基金的主要持有人包含中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司和中央汇金投资有限责任公司（以 下统称"汇金"），因此市场参与者普遍猜测，此前在2024年及2025年参与稳定市场的汇金正在陆续退出 这些ETF基金。 以华泰柏瑞、易方达、华夏、嘉实沪深300ETF（以下简称"四大沪深300ETF"）为例，2025年年末时， 汇金持有的基金份额占比均超过80%，汇金以外的其他持有人持有的基金份额占比相对较少。 | 沪深300ETF华泰柏瑞 (510300.SH) | | 2023年末 2024年中 2024年末 2025年中 | | | 2025年末(*) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司 | 未出现 | 7.28 | 266.21 | 378.58 | 378.58 | | 中央汇金投资有限责任公司 | ...

来源：华夏基金财富家 2005年2月23日，境内首只ETF、首发54亿的上证50ETF（510050）正式上市交易。 在那个多数投资者对基金尚且陌生的年代，推出一只份额实时申赎、可上市交易、跟踪指数的创新产 品，并用 "ETF" 三个英文字母命名，近乎一场冒险。没人能预判，它的出现将给资本市场带来什么样 的变化。 但它成功了。 此后二十余年间，中国ETF在创新蝶变中生生不息。ETF 早已不只是一类投资产品，更成为一种普惠、 高效、透明的投资范式，成为资本市场发展的时代注脚。 作为上证50ETF的基金管理人，华夏基金也以此为起点，开启了逾20年的持续深耕，从境内"ETF大 厂"一步步跃升至全球ETF"头部玩家"，成为中国首家跻身全球20强的ETF提供商。 01 ETF开拓者：从0到1，突破一道道窄门 "回望ETF走过的来时路，从来不是一条坦途，而是突破一道道窄门后的厚积薄发。" 回望 2005年，A 股市场刚经历长期调整，沪指一度击穿 1300 点关口，市场信心低迷。在这样的环境 下，首只ETF的募集难度可想而知。比发行更难的，是产品从0到1的落地—— 作为全新品种，ETF 的 运作机制、法律框架、技术系统、申 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a shift in investment focus among ordinary families in China, particularly in the context of the A-share market, where discussions around "investment," "returns," "AI," and "semiconductors" have become prevalent during the Spring Festival [1] - It emphasizes the significant improvement in investor profitability in 2025, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and the digital economy, with many equity public funds achieving average returns exceeding 30% [1] Investment Trends - In 2025, the A-share market is characterized by a strong performance in technology sectors, with indices related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and computers showing substantial gains compared to traditional industries [4] - Ordinary investors are increasingly focusing on industry trends and company fundamentals, moving away from speculative trading [4] Investment Strategies - There is a growing preference for industry-themed public funds and ETFs, which allow investors to participate in broader industry trends rather than individual stocks, thus reducing risks associated with single stock investments [6][8] - Investors are adopting strategies like "core + satellite," where they hold foundational investments in sectors like semiconductors and AI while diversifying into other themes [7] Investor Sentiment - Many investors express confidence in China's technology sector due to geographical proximity to innovation hubs, which enhances their understanding of market dynamics [10] - The article illustrates a shift in consumer behavior, where improved financial returns are leading to increased household spending and investment in future opportunities, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related trends over different time periods. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 50ETF price changed from 3.161 to 3.170, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.48%, 0.28%, and 0.00%. The corresponding monthly IVs were 17.21%, 16.27%, and 17.51%, and the next - month IVs were 17.34%, 16.57%, and 16.75% [1]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are provided, with the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 77.90%, 69.70%, and 80.40% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 91.85, with previous values of 94.71 (yesterday), 92.27 (two days ago), 99.29 (three days ago), and 98.62 (four days ago) [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 6 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed, with the price on February 11 being 4.733. The daily price changes and corresponding monthly and next - month IVs are provided. For example, on February 9, the price was 4.727, with a 1.68% change, monthly IV of 16.56%, and next - month IV of 17.06% [3]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 68.90%, 54.20%, etc. [3]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 6, 2026, was 111.30, with previous values also provided [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.928 to 4.920, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.61%, monthly IV was 18.23%, and next - month IV was 17.91% [6]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 78.70%, 69.70%, etc. [6]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 9, 2026, was 107.99, with previous values available [10]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 8.395 to 8.411, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.17%, monthly IV was 27.08%, and next - month IV was 26.47% [12]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are provided, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 93.40%, 88.50%, etc. [12]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 108.27, with previous values also presented [15]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 10 - 12, 2026, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed, with the price on February 12 being 3.338. The daily price changes and corresponding monthly and next - month IVs are shown. For example, on February 10, the price change was - 0.24%, monthly IV was 27.32%, and next - month IV was 26.88% [20]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 94.20%, 88.10%, etc. [20]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 10, 2026, was 113.89, with previous values available [27]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 3.321 to 3.273, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 2.85%, monthly IV was 27.90%, and next - month IV was 28.10% [28]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 66.50%, 64.00%, etc. [28]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 97.50, with previous values also provided [34]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.494 to 3.462, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 1.96%, monthly IV was 22.64%, and next - month IV was 22.48% [38]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 75.10%, 68.10%, etc. [38]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 106.18, with previous values available [42]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.535 to 1.533, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 2.40%, monthly IV was 33.05%, and next - month IV was 32.07% [48]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 67.30%, 67.60%, etc. [48]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 95.49, with previous values also provided [50]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the STAR 50ETF price changed from 1.486 to 1.486, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.48%, monthly IV was 34.38%, and next - month IV was 32.88% [54]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 62.80%, 62.70%, etc. [54]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 92.95, with previous values available [61]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 300 Index price changed from 4719.056 to 4713.819, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.63%, monthly IV was 18.70%, and next - month IV was 18.21% [66]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 86.50%, 73.80%, etc. [66]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 100.38, with previous values also provided [69]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 1000 Index price changed from 8233.778 to 8239.513, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.26%, monthly IV was 27.20%, and next - month IV was 26.14% [70]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 91.80%, 78.70%, etc. [70]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 113.30, with previous values available [75]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 3081.779 to 3088.457, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.45%, monthly IV was 17.74%, and next - month IV was 66.58% [80]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 82.00%, 77.10%, etc. [80]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 100.49, with previous values also provided [86].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced narrow fluctuations on February 10, with active performance in media and humanoid robot sectors, while stock ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding 10.26 billion yuan [1][2]. ETF Fund Flows - On February 10, the total net outflow from stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 10.259 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 index-related ETFs experiencing a net outflow of 2.904 billion yuan, while the CSI Film Index-related ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.339 billion yuan [2][4]. - Over the past five days, the Hang Seng Technology Index-related ETFs attracted over 8.5 billion yuan, and the SGE Gold 9999 Index-related ETFs received over 6.2 billion yuan [2]. Fund Company Performance - E Fund's ETF scale reached 661.58 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.05 billion yuan. The China concept internet ETF saw a net inflow of 158 million yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology ETF had a net inflow of 144 million yuan [2]. - Huaxia Fund's robot ETF and sci-tech semiconductor ETF had significant net inflows of 527 million yuan and 117 million yuan, respectively, with their latest scales at 25.818 billion yuan and 8.196 billion yuan [3]. - GF Fund's media ETF received the highest net inflow of 460 million yuan, with a year-to-date increase of over 26%, making it one of the top three ETFs in the market [3]. Market Trends and Insights - The market is expected to shift focus from January's credit and liquidity performance to subsequent macroeconomic and industrial clues, as indicated by E Fund's index investment department [5]. - The manager from GF Fund highlighted the importance of vertical multi-modal AI application opportunities by 2026, emphasizing the deep penetration of AI technology in the production processes of games and films, which could enhance content innovation efficiency [5].

Group 1 - Shanghai Limiting Point Innovation Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has been established, focusing on artificial intelligence software development and consulting services [1] - The company is jointly held by Zhiyuan Robot's affiliated company, Zhiyuan Innovation (Shanghai) Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Food and Beverage ETF (Product Code: 515170) tracks the China Securities Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with a recent five-day decline of 0.71% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.06 times [3] - Gaming ETF (Product Code: 159869) tracks the China Securities Animation and Gaming Index, showing a five-day increase of 10.84% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.58 times [3] - Sci-Tech 50 ETF (Product Code: 588000) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech 50 Index, with a five-day increase of 3.88% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 176.27 times [4] - Cloud Computing 50 ETF (Product Code: 516630) tracks the China Securities Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, with a five-day increase of 17.69% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.56 times [5]

Group 1 - Zhejiang Yuanju Industrial Robot Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, focusing on the sales of intelligent robots, manufacturing service consumer robots, research and development of intelligent robots, and artificial intelligence application software development [1] - The company is jointly held by Yuanxin Industrial (301053) and other stakeholders [1] Group 2 - The establishment of the new robot company indicates a growing trend in the robotics and AI sector, reflecting increased investment and interest in automation technologies [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the establishment of Shenzhen Jinmeiyuantou Enterprise Management Partnership with a capital contribution of 490 million yuan, focusing on enterprise management consulting and investment activities [1] - The partnership is co-funded by Luzhou Laojiao Group and Sichuan Jinjue Investment Co., Ltd., indicating strategic investment moves by the company [1] Group 2 - The Food and Beverage ETF (Product Code: 515170) tracks the China Securities Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with a recent five-day decline of 1.46% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.42 times [3] - The Gaming ETF (Product Code: 159869) follows the China Securities Animation and Gaming Index, experiencing a five-day drop of 3.54% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.48 times [3] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF (Product Code: 588000) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech 50 Index, showing a five-day increase of 2.63% with a high price-to-earnings ratio of 179.47 times [3] - The Media ETF (Product Code: 516190) tracks the China Securities Entertainment and Media Index, with a recent five-day increase of 2.32% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.15 times [3]

Group 1 - Yuyiao Beilong Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has been established, focusing on the research and development of intelligent robots, mechanical equipment research, sales, and leasing [1] - The company is jointly held by Beilong Precision (301567) and others [1] Group 2 - Food and Beverage ETF (Product Code: 515170) tracks the China Securities Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with a recent five-day decline of 1.61% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.76 times [3] - Gaming ETF (Product Code: 159869) tracks the China Securities Animation and Gaming Index, experiencing a five-day decline of 4.17% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.07 times [3] - Sci-Tech 50 ETF (Product Code: 588000) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech 50 Index, with a five-day increase of 0.71% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 176.58 times [3] - Cloud Computing 50 ETF (Product Code: 516630) tracks the China Securities Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, with a five-day decline of 4.27% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.53 times [4]