摩根资产管理中国权益均衡与价值组组长兼资深基金经理倪权生从资产配置角度解析，认为随着经济基本面趋稳及部分行 业格局优化，具备竞争优势的优质上市公司有望提供更优的股东回报，使得股票资产的相对吸引力增强。他重点关注两类机 会：一是受益于供给约束、格局改善且现金流持续优化的周期行业（如有色金属），其属性正从强周期股向现金流稳健、股息 率提升的价值股转变；二是依托我国供应链与效率优势，积极拓展海外市场的高端制造业，这些企业在全球竞争中份额不断提 升，具备良好的盈利增长潜力与估值吸引力。 聚焦高景气成长赛道，摩根资产管理中国权益成长组基金经理赵隆隆重点看好两大方向：一是全面看好锂电与储能产业 链，认为储能正取代电动车成为核心需求驱动力，行业供需格局显著改善，龙头公司盈利修复空间较大，上游碳酸锂价格亦具 备弹性；二是持续看好AI带来的硬件与软件投资机遇，并认为需紧密跟踪应用落地与商业闭环的进展。 本报记者 昌校宇 岁末年初之际，2026年权益市场的走势成为投资者关注的焦点。近日，摩根资产管理中国权益投资团队在策略会上，以多 元化与国际化视角，分享了其对2026年市场机会的研判——"锚定中国优质企业全球竞争力，把握长期估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "Five Bowls of Noodles" (economic, policy, funding, overseas, and technical aspects) to navigate the current market complexities and make informed investment decisions [3][5][6]. Economic Aspect - The economic cycle is crucial for asset allocation, with the current phase identified as a "weak recovery" [5]. - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock categorizes economic conditions into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation, each suggesting different fund allocations [5]. - Historical performance data shows fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index and various fund indices from 2019 to 2025, indicating the impact of economic cycles on investment returns [5]. Policy Aspect - The Chinese stock market is closely linked to macroeconomic policies and industry guidance, with significant policies historically providing clear direction for market movements [6][7]. - The 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "technological innovation + self-control," targeting a GDP growth rate of 4.7% and focusing on sectors like AI and deep-sea economy [7]. Funding Aspect - Recent monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and the Federal Reserve, have improved global liquidity, positively affecting the A-share market [8][9]. - Historical data shows that previous rate cuts have led to significant increases in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a strong correlation between monetary policy and market performance [9]. Overseas Aspect - External factors such as U.S.-China relations and global central bank gold purchasing trends are influencing market risk appetite [10]. - The trade surplus with the U.S. has increased, and China's gold reserves have reached a 20-year high, providing a buffer against geopolitical tensions [10]. Technical Aspect - Technical indicators, including index trends and trading volume, are essential for understanding short-term market rhythms [11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a diversified investment strategy based on individual risk tolerance, recommending a mix of technology-focused ETFs, broad index funds, and fixed-income products to balance risk and return [13][15].

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing a shift in funding structure amid a volatile market and weak expectations, with a clear divergence in the scale changes of different ETFs [1][2] - Low-risk, low-volatility bond ETFs are seeing significant inflows, while broad-based equity ETFs and certain technology-themed ETFs are facing outflows [1][2][5] Group 1: Low-Risk Bond ETFs - Bond-related ETFs have become the main source of growth in the ETF market, with significant inflows recorded in the past month [2] - Specific bond ETFs such as the CSI Short Bond Index ETF, CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and others have seen substantial increases in scale, with inflows of 106.67 billion, 93.50 billion, 52.18 billion, and 43.12 billion respectively [2][3] - The demand for stable assets is evident as both institutional and individual investors seek to enhance portfolio stability through low-volatility bond ETFs [2][3] Group 2: Equity ETFs Under Pressure - In contrast to bond ETFs, broad-based equity indices are experiencing net outflows, with the CSI 300 Index ETF seeing a decrease of 387.60 billion, the STAR Market 50 Index ETF down by 63.97 billion, and others also facing declines [4] - Technology-themed ETFs are similarly under pressure, with significant outflows from products like the CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF, which decreased by 84.49 billion [4] - The market sentiment indicates a shift away from high-volatility and high-beta index products, reflecting a cautious risk appetite among investors [4][5] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investors are increasingly focusing on risk management, favoring stable assets in their portfolio adjustments amid limited incremental capital and cautious macro expectations [6] - The current market environment suggests that the trend of inflows into low-risk ETFs may continue, while growth and high-volatility sectors will depend on improvements in macro expectations and liquidity conditions [6]

ETF Market Overview - As of November 7, the performance of ETF products varied, with the CSI 2000 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the new energy theme ETF had the largest increase among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as CSI A500, CSI 2000, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw net inflows, while the ChiNext ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift from net inflows to net outflows in cyclical and military industry ETFs, while pharmaceutical ETFs saw accelerated inflows [2][16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with A-series ETFs consistently experiencing outflows [10] - Recent net outflows for broad-based ETFs have slowed down, with CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 transitioning from net outflows to net inflows [10][16] - As of November 7, the total number of newly established ETFs in the past two weeks was 16, with a total issuance of 6.53 billion units, of which 13 were stock ETFs and 3 were QDII ETFs [24] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw the highest net inflows, while those tracking consumer electronics experienced net outflows [30] - For dividend theme ETFs, products tracking the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index had the highest net inflows, while those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [32] Popular Thematic ETFs - AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, experienced an average return of -2.99% with a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - New energy-themed ETFs had an average return of 7.67% but saw a net outflow of 5.72 billion [2] - The total holdings of ETFs by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong reached 391.34 billion units, with a net outflow of 2.11 billion in the past two weeks [2]

ETF Market Overview - As of October 24, the performance of ETF products varied, with the Shanghai 50 index showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the dividend-themed ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as the CSI A50, CSI 2000, and Shanghai 50 saw net inflows, while the CSI A500 ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift in fund flows, with the New Energy ETF moving from net inflow to net outflow, while the Pharmaceutical ETF transitioned from net outflow to net inflow [16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for major broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with significant inflows into the CSI 300 ETF in April, followed by continued outflows in subsequent months [10][12] - Recent data indicates that, apart from the Shanghai 50 ETF, which shifted from net outflow to net inflow, other major broad-based ETFs have transitioned from net inflows to net outflows in the past two weeks [10][12] Thematic ETF Tracking - For technology-themed ETFs, those tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw significant net inflows, while products tracking the CS Artificial Intelligence index experienced net outflows [32] - Dividend-themed ETFs tracking the low-volatility dividend index had the highest net inflows, whereas those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [35] New ETF Products and Market Growth - In the past two weeks, a total of 8 new ETFs were launched, with a combined issuance of 2.997 billion shares, all of which were stock ETFs [26] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs growing by 293.33%, 197.82%, 112.34%, 52.18%, and 13.97% respectively [26] Fund Management Scale Distribution - As of October 24, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 912.812 billion, with E Fund's ETF management scale expanding by over 250 billion compared to the previous year [27][28]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong ETP market is experiencing significant growth, projected to be a breakthrough year in 2025, with a year-on-year asset management increase of 34.1%, reaching HKD 653.5 billion [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 2025, the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong ETP market reached HKD 37.8 billion, a 146% increase year-on-year, making it the third-largest ETP market globally, surpassing South Korea and Japan [2][3] - The turnover rate in the Hong Kong ETP market is leading globally, with a liquidity ratio of 14.7 as of 2025, up from 10.2 in 2024 and 9.0 in 2023 [3] Group 2: Product Innovation - The introduction of individual stock leveraged and inverse products in March 2025 has catered to retail investor needs, providing strategic investment tools for trading international equities during Asian hours [3] - The popularity of covered call option ETFs has increased since their launch in February 2024, appealing to investors seeking high-yield products in an unstable macro environment [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Trading - The average daily trading volume for ETFs through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 4.2 billion and HKD 3.2 billion respectively, with significant year-on-year increases of 128% and 142% [5] - The anticipated inclusion of more ETFs in the Stock Connect program in November 2025 is expected to further enhance cross-border trading activity [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - In the first three quarters of 2025, 14 technology-themed ETFs were launched in Hong Kong, with a total asset management size of HKD 120.1 billion, reflecting a 102% year-on-year increase [5] - The biotechnology sector has also seen growth, with three biotechnology-themed ETFs launched this year, totaling HKD 3.4 billion in assets, a 123% increase from September 2024 [5] Group 5: Active ETFs - The inflow of funds into active ETFs in Hong Kong reached USD 183 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by strong market rebounds and robust company earnings [6] - Asset management firms are accelerating the launch of more active products to meet investor demand for results-oriented and yield-focused strategies [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong ETP market is projected to experience strong growth in 2025, becoming the third-largest market globally in terms of ETP trading volume [1] Market Performance - As of September 2025, the average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong ETP market reached HKD 37.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 146% [1] - The market has surpassed South Korea and Japan in ETP trading volume [1] Sector Contributions - The surge in the ETP market is primarily driven by the popularity of technology-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly the flagship Hang Seng Tech Index ETP [1] - The number of technology-themed ETFs listed in Hong Kong reached 14 in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total asset management scale of HKD 120.1 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] Biotechnology Sector - In the biotechnology sector, three biotechnology-themed ETFs were listed year-to-date, with a total asset management scale of HKD 3.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 123% compared to September 2024 [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong ETP market is experiencing significant growth in 2025, becoming the third-largest globally, surpassing South Korea and Japan, with an asset management scale of HKD 653.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 2025, the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong ETP market reached HKD 37.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 146%, making it the third-highest globally [3] - The turnover rate of the Hong Kong ETP market is the highest in the world, achieving a turnover ratio of 14.7, up from 10.2 in 2024 [4] Group 2: Product Innovation - The launch of the first individual stock leveraged and inverse products in Asia in March 2025 has attracted retail investors, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 3.6 billion for these products, a 51% increase year-on-year [5] - The introduction of covered call ETFs has gained popularity, with total assets reaching HKD 8.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 32 times, and average daily trading volume rising nearly 77 times to HKD 132.2 million [5][6] Group 3: Cross-Border Trading - The average daily trading volume of ETFs through the Stock Connect programs reached HKD 4.2 billion and RMB 3.2 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 128% and 142%, respectively [7] - The number of eligible ETFs for trading through Stock Connect has reached 290, indicating a growing trend in cross-border ETF trading [7][8] Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology-themed ETFs have seen a total asset management scale of HKD 120.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 102%, with average daily trading volume of HKD 7.4 billion, up 247% [9] - The biotechnology ETFs have also shown growth, with total assets reaching HKD 3.4 billion, a 123% increase year-on-year [9] Group 5: Global Connectivity - The listing of ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 index and the first Saudi Islamic bond ETF in Hong Kong has enhanced investment opportunities and strengthened financial ties with the Middle East [10] Group 6: Active ETFs - Active ETFs have gained traction, with inflows reaching USD 183 billion in the first half of 2025, and the number of active ETFs in Hong Kong has increased to 31, with a total market value of HKD 23.7 billion, a 143% year-on-year growth [11]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong ETP market is experiencing significant growth, becoming the third-largest market globally by trading volume as of September 2025, surpassing South Korea and Japan [1][2] - The asset management scale has increased by 34.1% year-on-year, reaching HKD 653.5 billion [1] Group 1: Trading Volume and Turnover - As of September 2025, the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong ETP market reached HKD 37.8 billion, a 146% year-on-year increase, making it the third-highest globally [2] - The turnover rate in the Hong Kong ETP market has risen to 14.7, establishing its leading position worldwide [2] Group 2: Product Innovation - The launch of the first individual stock leveraged and inverse products in Asia in March 2025 has catered to retail investors' needs, particularly for trading high-liquidity stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla [3] - The average daily trading volume for all leveraged and inverse products listed in Hong Kong reached HKD 3.6 billion, a 51% increase year-on-year [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Trading - The average daily trading volume for ETFs traded through the Stock Connect programs reached HKD 4.2 billion and RMB 3.2 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 128% and 142%, respectively [5] - A total of 290 ETFs are eligible for trading through the Stock Connect, indicating a growing cross-border trading environment [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology-themed ETFs have seen a total asset management scale of HKD 120.1 billion, a 102% increase year-on-year, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 7.4 billion [7] - The biotechnology ETFs have also gained traction, with a total asset management scale of HKD 3.4 billion, marking a 123% increase from the previous year [7] Group 5: Global Connectivity - The introduction of ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 index and the first Saudi Islamic bond ETF in Hong Kong has enhanced the market's global connectivity [8] - A memorandum of understanding signed between the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange aims to strengthen financial market ties [8] Group 6: Rise of Active ETFs - Active ETFs have gained prominence, with inflows reaching USD 183 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by strong market performance [9] - As of September 2025, there are 31 active ETFs listed in Hong Kong, with a total market value of approximately HKD 23.7 billion, a 143% increase from the previous year [9] Conclusion - The strong performance of the Hong Kong ETF market in 2025 is attributed to its robust growth and continuous development, positioning it as a leading global ETF market [10]

ETF Market Overview - As of September 19, the overall performance of ETF products in the past two weeks has been good, with the Sci-Tech 50 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while technology sector ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [3][10] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs, except for the ChiNext Index, experienced net outflows, with the Sci-Tech 50 ETF having the largest net outflow [3][10] Fund Flow Analysis - In the past two weeks, the military industry ETF shifted from net inflow to net outflow, while funds accelerated into dividend, pharmaceutical, large manufacturing, financial real estate, and new energy ETFs, with inflow speeds for cyclical, consumer, and technology ETFs slowing down [16] - For bond ETFs, there was a significant inflow into credit bond ETFs, while convertible bonds, short-term financing, and government bond ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with policy financial bonds experiencing accelerated net outflows and local government bonds seeing slowed net inflows [16] ETF Product Structure - As of September 19, a total of 27 new ETFs were established in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 48.362 billion units, consisting of 14 pure bond ETFs and 13 stock ETFs [19] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs increasing by 237.50%, 111.89%, 94.45%, 46.09%, and 11.03% respectively [19] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the past two weeks, products tracking semiconductor-related indices, such as the China-Korea Semiconductor, performed well, while funds tracking the National Chip Index experienced net outflows [25][28] - The AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, had an average return of 6.67% in the past two weeks, with a net outflow of 1.557 billion yuan [3] - The robotics-themed ETFs showed an average return of 8.30% in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 8.473 billion yuan [3] Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of September 19, Huaxia Fund had the largest ETF on-market scale at 863.966 billion yuan, while E Fund's ETF management scale expanded by over 370 billion yuan compared to one year ago [20]