本月，美国总统特朗普因格陵兰岛宣布将对8个反对他收购格陵兰岛计划的国家加征关税，欧洲多国表示将予以强烈反击，地缘 政治因素引爆市场。特别是欧洲多国开始大幅抛售美债。如今，特朗普与北约就格陵兰岛问题达成框架协议，虽然市场风险偏 好有所修复，但美国10年期美债收益率延续上行态势，暗示市场抛售美债的行动并未结束。 美联储按兵不动 独立性遭挑战 美东时间1月28日（北京时间1月29日凌晨），美联储公布利率决议，宣布维持政策利率在3.5%至3.75%区间，基本符合市场预 期。12月公布的点阵图预测，2026年年底的联邦基金利率为3.25%至3.50%，这意味着美联储成员在去年12月议息会议期间预计 今年仅会有1次降息。 本次议息会议以10票赞成、2票反对通过决议。沃勒和米兰两位美联储理事因支持降息25个基点而投出反对票，这主要受到政治 因素的干扰。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，建议其继任者远离政治。这从侧面反映出当前特朗普政府确实在干预美 联储的独立性，这一点可从近期特朗普持续炒作即将公布下一任美联储主席人选的言论得到印证。 综合来看，市场倾向于押注后续美联储政策取向趋于宽松，围绕下一任美联储主席的鸽派预期有所升 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show moderate improvement in December, with non-farm payrolls projected to increase by 73,000 and the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.5% [1] - The average monthly job growth for the first 11 months of 2025 was 55,000, indicating that December's expected growth is slightly above this average and better than November's figure of 64,000 [1] - Despite the low unemployment rate, some Federal Reserve policymakers express concerns about potential cracks in the labor market becoming more apparent this year [1] Group 2 - Employment growth has primarily been concentrated in sectors benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, particularly healthcare and government [2] - A notable trend for 2026 is the emphasis on employee retention, with employers focusing on keeping existing staff rather than aggressive hiring or layoffs [2] - The upcoming report will be the first timely employment report since the government shutdown ended in mid-November, with some economists expecting a "clean" report free from disruptions only by February [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has been significantly impacted by a sudden geopolitical event, specifically the U.S. military action against Venezuela, leading to a surge in gold prices and a renewed focus on gold as a defensive asset amid rising geopolitical risks [1][4]. Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. military action against Venezuela has disrupted the market's perception of manageable geopolitical risks, causing a spike in safe-haven demand for gold [1]. - This event is seen as a clear escalation in great power competition, prompting a reassessment of the uncertainty premium in global political order [1][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened strongly, reaching above $4,370 with a daily increase of nearly 1%, despite the U.S. dollar index also rebounding to a high, indicating that investors are not entirely abandoning dollar assets during this flight to safety [1][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, reinforce the expectation of prolonged geopolitical risks, positioning gold as a strategic hedge against systemic risks [1][4]. Technical Analysis - After a previous high, gold prices experienced a quick pullback, stabilizing around $4,330, with $4,300 providing effective support and $4,418 acting as a key resistance level [4][10]. - The market is currently navigating two opposing trends: a short-term strengthening of the dollar due to capital inflows and technical recovery, and a medium-term expectation of a shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [4][10]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which is expected to provide solid support for gold prices in the medium term [4][10]. - Discussions around gold prices reaching $5,000 or higher reflect a shift in the market's pricing center for gold, indicating increased acceptance of higher price levels among both institutional and retail investors [7][12]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, will provide new insights into dollar and interest rate expectations, while the aftermath of the Venezuela incident may continue to influence market sentiment [12].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high due to a combination of risk aversion and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of market close, the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 2.08%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 3.78% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that failing to continue interest rate cuts next year could risk triggering an economic recession [1] - He also mentioned that while a downturn is not expected in the short term, rising unemployment rates should prompt continued rate cuts, with recent employment data suggesting that the unemployment rate may be "higher than previously expected" [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Gu Fongda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical uncertainties are the core support for current gold prices [1] - There is an ongoing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged easing cycle [1] - Additionally, potential escalations in the Middle East and evolving geopolitical situations in Europe continue to inject risk premiums into the market, solidifying the investment value of precious metals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high due to a combination of risk aversion and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the close, the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 2.08%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 3.78% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that failing to continue interest rate cuts next year could risk triggering an economic recession [1] - He also noted that while a downturn is not expected in the short term, rising unemployment rates should prompt the Fed to maintain a dovish stance, with recent employment data suggesting that unemployment may exceed previous market expectations [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Gu Fongda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the current gold price is primarily supported by expectations of Fed policy and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - There is ongoing divergence within the Fed regarding policy direction, reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged easing cycle [1] - The potential escalation of the Middle East situation and evolving geopolitical dynamics in Europe continue to inject risk premiums into the market, solidifying the investment value of precious metals [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory reduction supports the price of lead [1] - Driven by the Fed's policy easing expectations, US Treasury yields generally declined, with the 2 - year yield falling by more than 6 basis points [2] - In China, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed to 1.5%, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased rapidly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,987 US dollars/ton, down 0.25% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 49,426 lots, an increase of 4,245 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,584 lots, an increase of 1,465 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 49,915 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 161,771 lots, an increase of 859 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 38.74 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.26 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 498.78 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.11 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was - 482.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 94.9 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,275 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME lead inventory was 267,475 tons, a decrease of 4,075 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 341 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - Driven by the Fed's policy easing expectations, US Treasury yields generally declined, with the 2 - year yield falling by more than 6 basis points [2] - In China, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed to 1.5%, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased rapidly [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]