美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核心零售 销售环比下降0.1%，预期为增长0.3%。主要依赖工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 其他信息：美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不 刺激也不抑制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。美联 储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时间 内"保持不变。 【机构观点】 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月11日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 20944 | 1.88% | 504079 | 211818 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，2月11日上海白银现货价格报价22146元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（20944元/千克）升水 1202元/千克。 美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核 ...

达拉斯联储行长洛里·洛根表示，她认为美联储的利率立场能够很好地应对经济面临的风险，此番表态 表明，她可能不愿意在美联储即将召开的会议上支持恢复降息。去年的降息将联邦基金利率下调至 3.5%至3.75%的区间，美联储在上个月的最近一次会议上重申了这一水平。洛根周二下午在得克萨斯州 奥斯汀举行的一个金融会议上发表讲话时说，对于一个既面临持续通胀又面临就业市场逐渐降温的经济 体来说，这一设定是恰当的。洛根说，美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济活 动。洛根在她发表的讲话稿中说："我们的政策处于有利位置，可以应对美国联邦公开市场委员会双重 使命目标中任何一个面临的风险。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea anticipates that the Federal Reserve's policy stance will become more cautious [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea's expectation reflects a shift in monetary policy dynamics influenced by global economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market and survey respondents expect Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, to be nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, but most economists prefer other candidates and are concerned about the potential loss of Fed independence and a more dovish policy stance [1][1]. Group 1 - Market expectations indicate a nomination for Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [1]. - Majority of economists express preference for alternative candidates [1]. - Concerns arise regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [1].

Core Insights - The overall employment market is balanced, but inflation remains too high [1] - Interest rate cuts cannot address structural changes in the employment market [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy stance is only moderately restrictive [1]

Core Insights - The President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmid, stated that interest rate cuts cannot address structural changes in the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy stance is described as having only a moderate restrictive effect [1] Summary by Categories Economic Policy - Interest rate reductions are not a solution for the structural changes occurring in the employment market [1] - The current policy stance of the Federal Reserve is characterized as moderately restrictive [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee amid political pressure for significant rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are becoming more pronounced, with members supporting early easing policies conflicting with Powell's "patience" stance [1] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian notes that political influences may be affecting FOMC decisions, potentially disrupting fixed income and foreign exchange markets [1] Group 2: Currency Movements - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near eight-day high, supported by reduced demand for the dollar as a safe haven and a narrowing yield spread between German and U.S. two-year bonds [3] - The eurozone's inflation rate could decrease by 0.3 percentage points for every $10 drop in oil prices, providing room for future European Central Bank policy adjustments [3] - The British pound is expected to recover against the euro after a weak June, with historical trends suggesting poor performance for the euro against the pound in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.4, and the Business Expectations Index jumped to 90.7, although the impact on exchange rates is limited [3] - The UK manufacturing sector is under significant pressure, with the most severe order contraction reported since January, amid rising energy and labor costs [6] - Japan's core CPI remains high, and recent PMI data has improved, increasing market expectations for potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan [7]