Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

新华财经北京6月24日电 美联储美联储主席鲍威尔将于今日北京时间22:00在众议院金融服务委员会发 表证词。鉴于白宫方面持续施加的大幅降息政治压力，以及关税和地缘政治事件引发的不确定性再次升 温，市场交易员正密切关注美联储政策立场的动向。 欧元区经济数据呈现微弱改善。德国6月IFO商业景气指数升至88.4，商业预期指数跃升至90.7，数据对 汇价影响有限。欧元区PMI显示制造业仍处收缩区间，服务业勉强站上荣枯线，经济复苏动能不足。 英镑 美国银行外汇策略师表示，英镑在经历了又一个疲软的6月表现后，应该会恢复对欧元的上涨。英镑在 近年来的6月通常都会对欧元下跌。仅从季节性表现来看，欧元对英镑在7月及以后的今年剩余时间里将 表现不佳。 图为：截至北京时间19:12 主要货币对不同时间周期波动对比来源：新华财经 美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部的分歧愈发明显，特朗普任命的理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）均表态支持最早在7月份实施宽松政策。 这一立场与鲍威尔近期所传达的"保持耐心"信号相悖，暗示委员会内部不和正在加剧。安联（Allian ...