市场还需要几周时间才能真正消化这场冲突的影响 高盛CEO所罗门表示，金融市场对中东战争的反应出人意料地平静 。这一局面令他感到意外，但他同时警告，市场真正消化这场冲突的影响还需数周时间。 据媒体报道，所罗门周三在悉尼出席澳大利亚金融评论商业峰会时表示， 目前仍有太多未知因素，投资者正在评估这场冲突是否会演变为持久战，以及是否将 开始冲击消费。美国就确保霍尔木兹海峡航运安全所作的承诺，在一定程度上稳定了市场情绪。 与此同时，这场伊朗战争的冲击波正在持续扩散。以色列对德黑兰发动新一轮空袭，伊朗则向卡塔尔、巴林和阿曼发射导弹，卡塔尔方面表示打击目标并不局 限于军事设施。 在通胀预期方面，油价上涨引发市场对通胀卷土重来的担忧，交易员正在下调对美联储降息的预期。 据新华社援引美国有线电视新闻网3日报道，自美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事行动以来，负责美伊谈判的美国总统特使威特科夫就再未同伊方进行过外交接 触。 所罗门表示，霍尔木兹海峡航运保障方面的美国背书，是目前支撑市场情绪的关键因素之一，但这一局面能否持续，仍有待未来数周的形势发展来检验。 尽管地缘风险上升，Solomon对美国经济的中期前景依然持乐观态度。他指出，宽松货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to ongoing global geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to increased investment in precious metals [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Continuous global geopolitical risks and rising international political uncertainties are influencing the market [1] - Uncertainties regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy path are contributing to the volatility in precious metals [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The shift in investment towards precious metals is driven by long-term concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1] - Silver prices are experiencing greater volatility and increases compared to gold, influenced by both safe-haven demand and improved expectations for industrial and renewable energy demand [1] - There is a possibility that silver prices may temporarily drop below $100 per ounce, potentially reaching as low as $90 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market has shown volatility amid discussions on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with uncertainties leading to potential long-term Treasury yields trading at a discount [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly retreated to 4.45%, while the 30-year yield is expected to close above 5% for the first time since Monday [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields are under upward pressure due to factors such as the potential expansion of government budget deficits following the "Big and Beautiful" plan led by Trump, and rising long-term Japanese bond yields affecting the U.S. market [2] - The market is facing significant uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to long-term Treasuries continuing to trade at a discount [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Traders are increasingly hedging against the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates faster than expected, with bets on the next chair being more inclined to cut rates significantly [5] - Current Fed officials, including potential successor Christopher Waller, advocate for a rate cut this month to support the weakening U.S. labor market, reflecting a significant divergence in monetary policy views among Fed members [5] - The probability of two rate cuts this year has been significantly reduced to 75%, down from previous expectations of three cuts totaling 75 basis points [6]