美联储降息预期再燃市场热情，AI泡沫考验过去了吗 在刚刚过去的感恩节假日短交易周，美国股市迎来强势反弹。此次反弹的引线是美联储官员的表态基调 发生显著转变，公开释放支持降息25个基点的信号，从而扭转了此前部分焦虑情绪。未来一周，人工智 能(AI)企业的盈利能力信号及美国整体经济健康状况将继续为市场关注，在美国官方数据尚未恢复的背 景下，投资者将不得不继续应对信息迷雾的挑战。 美联储降息稳了？ 上周公布的多项数据显示，美国经济动能正在面临压力。 美劳工部称，截至11月22日当周，初请失业金人数环比下降6000人，至21.6万人，为4月以来最低水 平。然而，持续申请失业救济人数仍呈上升趋势，刷新多年高位，这与近期调查数据显示消费者对劳动 力市场的评估正在恶化相吻合。数据表明，在经济不确定性背景下，劳动力市场难以向失业人群提供足 够的就业岗位。 美国人口普查局报告显示，9月零售销售额增幅低于分析师预期。此外，美国自动数据处理公司(ADP) 称，截至11月8日的四周内，私营企业平均每周减少1.35万个工作岗位。该机构下周将发布11月的月度 就业数据，这也将成为美联储决议前最关键的劳动力指标之一。 牛津经济研究院高级经 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to sustain market confidence, leading to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% - The Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 2.15% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines: - AMD fell over 7% - Oracle decreased by over 6% - Netflix and Nvidia both dropped over 3% - Tesla and Amazon fell over 2% - Microsoft declined by over 1% - Broadcom fell by 2.14% - Qualcomm decreased by 3.90% - Adobe dropped by 1.79% - Salesforce fell by 1.10% [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 3.26% - Notable declines among popular Chinese stocks: - Canadian Solar fell by 18.3% - Daqo New Energy dropped by 9.2% - NIO decreased by 6% - JinkoSolar fell by 5.7% - Other companies like Pony.ai, Xpeng, Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, and Baidu dropped over 4% - However, some stocks saw gains: - NetEase rose by 0.6% - Beike increased by 1.3% - GDS Holdings gained 1.8% - Yatsen Holding rose by 3.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices experienced declines, influenced by geopolitical tensions and strong economic data affecting interest rate expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq index initially dropped by 1.3%, the S&P 500 index fell nearly 1%, and the Dow Jones decreased by 0.5% [1]. - The latest values for the indices are: S&P 500 at 6582.50 (-0.84%), Nasdaq at 22230.00 (-1.19%), and Dow Jones at 45936.04 (-0.40%) [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported tracking Russian military aircraft in the Alaskan air defense identification zone, which prompted the U.S. military to deploy an E-3 AWACS, four F-16 fighters, and four KC-135 tankers for identification and interception [1]. - NORAD stated that such Russian activities are common and not considered a threat, although recent drone activity in Europe has heightened market concerns [1]. Group 3: Economic Data - The U.S. economy's second-quarter growth exceeded expectations, primarily driven by strong consumer spending and reduced imports, leading to a GDP revision up to 3.8%, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly two years [1].

Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.26% to 44,901.92 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 1.02% to 21,108.32 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.46% to 6,388.64 points [1] - Year-to-date, the Dow Jones has increased by 5.54%, the Nasdaq by 9.31%, and the S&P 500 by 8.62% [1] Earnings Reports - Over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded market expectations [1] - Approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies have released their earnings, with an expected overall growth of 7.7% in Q2 earnings compared to the previous year [4] Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence in the performance of major tech stocks, with Nvidia and Microsoft reaching new highs, while Tesla and Intel have seen declines of 21% and 10.39% respectively [2] - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.6, significantly above the long-term average of 15.8 [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, as officials seek more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] - Recent inflation data shows an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in June, indicating rising inflationary pressures [4]

Market Overview - US stock market opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.12%, Nasdaq down 1.59%, and S&P 500 down 1.24% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia, Amazon, Intel, TSMC, AMD, and Meta all falling over 2% [1] - Apple saw a drop of over 3%, influenced by Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on the company if iPhones are not manufactured in the US [1] Company Specifics - Miniso's stock plummeted over 19% after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit significantly below expectations [1]