⻩⾦和⽩银何时反弹：全球顶级贵⾦属交易商分享 他们的观点 BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY,FEB 03,2026-03:35 AM 虽然可能不像周五那场历史性暴跌那样令⼈难忘——那⼀天⽩银创下了有记录以来的最⼤单⽇跌 幅，⻩⾦也出现了数⼗年来最严重的下跌——但我们刚刚⼜经历了⼀个惊⼼动魄的⻩⾦/⽩银隔夜 交易时段，两者在稳定在近期历史⾼点下⽅之前，延续了跌势。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 过去⼏个交易⽇的⾛势感觉与2021年10⽉的抛售类似，只是更为极端。⾼盛认为，⼤量短期⻩⾦ ETF（GLD）⼤宗交易引发的波动率变动触发了模型清算，⽽⾼频交易员加剧了GLD的下⾏势 头，进⼀步恶化了这⼀情况。10⽉抛售事件的⼀个突出点是，尽管当时成交量创下纪录，但⻩⾦ E ...

法币贬值风险 (Debasement 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 法币贬值风险 (Debasement ofFiat Currencies)：自2025年起，机构投资者因担忧法定货币长期贬值而寻求黄金等资产 进行配置。 去全球化 (De-globalization)与地缘政治秩序变化：地缘政治事件（如报告中提及的委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛相关事件） 及政策变动，导致投资者将黄金视为避险资产，这部分资金倾向 ...

不。 转：黄金、白银屠杀现场 ——卖盘是确定的，买盘是不确定的。 昨天我们看到的不是金条、银条被抛出窗外，而是黄金白银ETF、杠杆产品被清仓。 摩根士丹利量化团队算了一笔账，周五一天被迫要卖出的规模（不是看空，是模型规定必须卖）： 白银ETF（SLV）≈35亿美元 黄金ETF（GLD）≈6.5亿美元 注意关键词，是"被迫"，不是看空。 模型规定必须卖，没有商量空间。 不像人一样，可以等等看，而是必须要卖——没人有资格按暂停键。 如果你想看"屠杀现场"，那么真正的"名场面"是AGQ（2倍做多白银ETF）：一天跌65%，创下史上最大跌幅。 银价暴跌，ETF净值被打穿，为了维持"2倍"目标，必须在收盘前卖出现货/期货。 于是就出现了这样一幕：价格下跌，被迫卖出；再跌，再卖——越跌越卖，越卖越狠。 这哪里是市场，更像是一台高速运转、没人能关掉的洗衣机。 另一个暗雷是CTA（趋势交易、程序盘），仓位极满，方向极一致。 白银：净多50亿美元（过去5年的94%分位） 黄金：净多150亿美元 几乎所有趋势模型都在同一边。 CTA的特点是涨就买，跌就卖，不讲故事。 一旦价格跌破关键位置，模型会在同一时间翻空。 卖单不是一个一个 ...

Seasonal Demand Shifts: The conclusion of the Diwali festival in India, a major global gold consumer, also contributed to a reduction in physical demand, removing one of the key supporting tailwinds for the price.Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve Policy: While expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially fueled gold's rally, ongoing uncertainty and a lack of precise data (partially due to a U.S. government shutdown in late fall) have contributed to market indecisiveness. The CME Group' ...

Investment uncertainty: Uncertainty over the U.S. government's fiscal health and potential trade policy shifts could continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. Volatility in bond and equity markets also makes gold an attractive structural hedge for many investors.Potential for rising inflation: While easing fears of inflation could cap gold's gains, the risk of persistent inflation remains. If economic data shows inflation stays longer than expected, gold's status as an inflation hedge could drive renewed ...

当地时间10月21日，国际黄金市场在此前连创纪录高位后急剧下挫。现货黄金一度暴跌超6%，创下自 2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货收跌5.7%，报每盎司4109.10美元。 此前一个交易日，金价刚创下4381美元的历史新高。 除黄金外，白银亦大幅下挫。现货白银收跌7.6%，报每盎司48.49美元，创2021年以来最大单日跌幅。 矿业股同步承压，纽蒙特（Newmont）下跌逾9%，哈莫尼黄金（Harmony Gold）与金罗斯黄金 （Kinross Gold）跌幅均超过10%。黄金ETF（GLD）全天下跌逾6%，创2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅。 市场普遍认为，这轮剧烈调整反映了前期涨势过快后的自然回调。随着金价在高位交投、市场多头仓位 集中，情绪变化被迅速放大。部分分析人士认为，这一轮下跌更多是技术性调整，而非趋势性逆转。 汇丰贵金属策略师詹姆斯·斯蒂尔（James Steel）对第一财经记者表示，近期金价涨势"近乎抛物线式"， 高杠杆与集中持仓使市场对外部情绪的敏感度上升。在他看来，黄金中期上升趋势仍在延续。 美元反弹与风险偏好回升 本轮黄金上涨始于年初，在地缘政治风险、降息 ...

受避险资金、降息预期及央行增持支撑，分析人士认为当前或为强势行情中的阶段性修正。 当地时间10月21日，国际黄金市场在此前连创纪录高位后急剧下挫。现货黄金一度暴跌超6%，创下自 2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货收跌5.7%，报每盎司4109.10美元。 此前一个交易日，金价刚创下4381美元的历史新高。 除黄金外，白银亦大幅下挫。现货白银收跌7.6%，报每盎司48.49美元，创2021年以来最大单日跌幅。 MKS PAMP SA贵金属策略主管妮基·希尔斯（Nicky Shiels）表示："市场已显现泡沫迹象，主要催化剂 是极度超买状态——这轮涨势正在冷却。六周内暴涨1000美元的事实表明，金价已被明显高估，我们正 处于非理性高位。" 短期波动或将延续 部分机构认为，此轮下跌更像是长期强势中的阶段性修正。CFRA Research首席投资策略师山姆·斯托沃 尔（Sam Stovall）认为，黄金此前涨势过快，美元反弹成为投资者获利了结的催化剂，但中长期上行支 撑依旧稳固。 纽约人寿投资公司（New York Life Investments）经济学家劳伦·古德温（Lauren ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on U.S. technology stocks, suggesting an "Outperform" rating for this sector, while Chinese stocks have been exited, indicating a cautious stance on that market [10][11]. Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates' total portfolio value increased from $21.6 billion in Q1 2025 to $24.8 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 15% growth, with significant adjustments in stock positions [10][11]. - The strategy involved taking profits from previously held Chinese stocks while aggressively increasing positions in U.S. tech giants, particularly during market pullbacks [10][11]. - The report highlights a shift towards a concentrated portfolio in U.S. large-cap stocks and ETFs, with a notable increase in the technology sector's weight [10][11]. Summary by Sections Portfolio Changes - The report details that 207 stocks were added, 85 new positions were initiated, 286 positions were reduced, and 164 were exited, with the top 10 holdings' share rising from 31.8% to 36.1% [10][11]. - Significant increases in holdings included NVIDIA (+4.39 million shares, +154%), Google (+84%), Microsoft (+112%), and Meta (+90%) [10][11]. New Positions - New stakes were initiated in companies such as Arm (approximately 470,000 shares), Intuit (approximately 60,000 shares), EQT (approximately 790,000 shares), and Lyft (approximately 2.48 million shares) [11][10]. Profit-Taking and Market Exposure - The report notes the complete exit from positions in Alibaba, Baidu, PDD, NIO, KE, and JD.com, alongside reductions in S&P 500 ETFs (-22%) and other major stocks like Apple (-62%) and AMD (-19%) [11][10]. - The overall sector allocation remains focused on U.S. technology, financials, and communication services, with a defensive position maintained in gold ETFs [11][10].

Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.26% to 44,901.92 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 1.02% to 21,108.32 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.46% to 6,388.64 points [1] - Year-to-date, the Dow Jones has increased by 5.54%, the Nasdaq by 9.31%, and the S&P 500 by 8.62% [1] Earnings Reports - Over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded market expectations [1] - Approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies have released their earnings, with an expected overall growth of 7.7% in Q2 earnings compared to the previous year [4] Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence in the performance of major tech stocks, with Nvidia and Microsoft reaching new highs, while Tesla and Intel have seen declines of 21% and 10.39% respectively [2] - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.6, significantly above the long-term average of 15.8 [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, as officials seek more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] - Recent inflation data shows an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in June, indicating rising inflationary pressures [4]

Group 1 - Barrick Gold announced a pause in its expansion plans in Tanzania, citing declining ore grades, but analysts suggest there may be more significant underlying reasons related to market conditions [1][3] - The current volatility in the gold market is attributed to several factors, including President Trump's erratic behavior, the Federal Reserve's indecision on interest rates, and the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies [3][8] - Goldman Sachs indicated that gold and copper are experiencing a rare investment opportunity, with gold's theoretical price around $3900 based on current real interest rates, while actual prices hover around $3340, indicating a significant undervaluation of over $600 [3][6] Group 2 - The price of gold has seen strong support around $3310, referred to as the "golden lifeline" by traders, with significant rebounds following major geopolitical events [5][6] - Market focus is on whether gold can stabilize above $3352, especially after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding interest rate decisions being data-dependent [6][8] - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold reserves, with a record rise of 483 tons in the first half of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions and tariff threats, while retail investors remain cautious [6][8] Group 3 - The market reacted dramatically to news regarding potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, highlighting the sensitivity of gold prices to perceptions of Fed independence [7][8] - The release of U.S. inflation data and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions are critical indicators for gold traders, with a 70% probability of a rate cut in September being priced in by the market [8]