丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅整理。聚丙烯利润倒挂严重,装置停工或计划停工现象增多,部分一体化企业丙烯 外放量预期增加，利空丙烯市场。下游工厂入市采购意愿降低,丙烯需求支撑下降,生产企业出货欠佳，报盘 小幅让利情况增多，市场成交重心小幅下移。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内弱势整理。聚乙烯方面,进口货源陆续到港,整体供应仍存增加预期。下游行 业开工多数维持,原料价格下跌,且伴随后续订单减少,备货积极性不高,随用随采,维持生产为主。整体来 看，需求面给予市场支撑力度偏弱。聚丙烯方面，虽暂无新增冲击，但存量检修装置计划减少,产量预计小幅 增加。下游新单跟进持续力度不足,叠加下游对现货采购意愿欠佳,短期需求仍显偏弱。综合来看,供需基本 面支撑减弱,市场弱势难改。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价震荡。进口压力略有下降,港口库存平稳;后市有纯苯装置检修及下游部分产品提负预期，供需 压力或有所缓解，低位震荡为主。明年上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。成本端对苯乙烯无明显利好驱动,苯乙烯供需预计双增,但后市有景库预 期,对价格难有提振作用。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依 ...

| 《八》 国控期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月15日 | | 两烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 瓶片 | な☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 筑碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, financial futures, etc., and shows the year-to-date price changes and the changes in average daily open interest and precipitation funds [2][4][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 970.66 with a 1.00% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.59%, volatility change of -9.40%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of 47.37; Silver closed at 14,892.00 with an 8.80% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 37.70%, volatility change of 3.90%, speculation degree of 3.97, trend degree of 0.30, and capital change of 43.39 [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, and industrial silicon showed different price changes, volatilities, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. For example, copper closed at 94,080.00 with a 1.40% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.71%, volatility change of 22.77%, speculation degree of 0.81, trend degree of 0.08, and capital change of -14.36 [2] - **Black Metals**: Products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and stainless steel had their own price trends, volatilities, etc. For instance, rebar closed at 3,060.00 with a 3.07% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.01%, volatility change of 44.45%, speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of -0.47, and capital change of -12.59 [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, asphalt, PVC, polyethylene, etc. all had corresponding price fluctuations and other data. For example, crude oil closed at 437.60 with a 3.55% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.94%, volatility change of -19.12%, speculation degree of 2.26, trend degree of -0.28, and capital change of -5.72 [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton, sugar, corn, soybeans, etc. showed different performance. For example, cotton closed at 13,835.00 with a 0.62% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 5.63%, volatility change of -2.35%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.01, and capital change of 9.83 [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC, IF, IM, IH, T, TS, TF had their respective prices, weekly changes, volatilities, etc. For example, IC closed at 7,174.00 with a 1.28% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.37%, volatility change of -5.33%, speculation degree of 0.63, trend degree of 0.07, and capital change of 23.50 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Different futures products had varying year - to - date price changes. For example, silver had a 99.36% increase, while glass had a 28.80% decrease [13] Changes in Average Daily Open Interest - The average daily open interest of products such as cotton yarn, rapeseed meal, asphalt, soybean oil, and live pigs had relatively large increases [15] Changes in Precipitation Funds - Gold, silver, tin, and cotton had increased capital attention, with corresponding changes in precipitation funds [16][17]

金融期货早评 宏观：美联储如期降息 【市场资讯】1）中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，创 2024 年 3 月来最高，PPI 同比降幅略有 扩大。2）房地产板块午盘大涨，万科展期债券讨论与市场对"房贷贴息"政策预期成为情绪 核心驱动。3）美联储如期再降息 25 基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，将买短 债 400 亿美元；鲍威尔：购债规模未来几个月或维持在较高水平，劳动力市场逐步降温但 慢于预期，目前利率下能耐心等待，关税影响明年料逐渐消退。新美联储通讯社：美联储 暗示暂停降息行动；新债王：今天或是鲍威尔任内最后一次。4）特朗普要搞"美联储主席 最终面试"，哈塞特尚未"板上钉钉"，贝森特仍有望后续接任。哈塞特：特朗普未来 1-2 周 对美联储主席人选做最终决定，重申美联储还有很大的降息空间。5）美国就业成本涨幅创 逾四年新低，通胀压力缓和。6）全球长债收益率飙升至 16 年新高，市场押注全球降息周 期即将终结。 【核心逻辑】海外市场聚焦美联储政策动向，下一任主席人选敲定预期升温，哈塞特当选 概率较高。市场预判其上任后或推动更激进降息，但受鲍威尔任期、经济及通胀等因素制 约，降息落地存在不确定性 ...

| ////◆ 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月02日 | | 丙烯 | 女女女 | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | 女女女 | 纯苯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | PX | 女女女 | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,延续低位区间整理态势。现货方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 953.92 with a weekly increase of 2.91%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.13% (down 17.26%); Silver closed at 12,727.00 with a weekly increase of 8.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 34.29% (down 3.88%) [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 87,430.00 with a 2.07% weekly increase; Nickel at 117,080.00 with a 2.66% increase; Aluminum at 21,610.00 with a 1.27% increase, etc [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,574.50 with a 2.48% weekly decrease; Coking coal at 1,067.00 with a 3.26% decrease; Iron ore at 794.00 with a 1.08% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil closed at 453.90 with a 1.45% weekly increase; Methanol at 2,135.00 with a 6.54% increase; LU at 3,038.00 with a 1.36% decrease [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Corn closed at 2,244.00 with a 2.23% weekly increase; Cotton at 13,725.00 with a 1.97% increase; Sugar at 5,400.00 with a 0.88% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Eggs closed at 3,293.00 with a 3.42% weekly increase; Hogs at 11,465.00 with a 1.01% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 6,974.20 with a 3.02% weekly increase; IF at 4,505.80 with a 1.75% increase; T at 107.94 with a 0.28% decrease [3] 2. Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had the highest year - to - date increase of 70.37%, followed by gold at 54.46%, while some products like 20 - day rubber had a year - to - date decrease of 24.80% [13] 3. Other Observations - LPG, gold, rapeseed, tin, and zinc had significant increases in weekly average open interest [15][17] - Silver, gold, copper, tin, and corn attracted more capital attention as indicated by the change in weekly settled funds [16]

玻璃在前一交易日小幅休整后26日再度强势走高。截至收盘，玻璃主力合约收涨1.87%，盘中刷新逾一周高点。在生产利润下滑、终端需求弱势的格局下， 近期玻璃产线冷修预期强化。这也成为短期玻璃期价连续反弹的主要支撑。需要注意的是，尽管本周整体经历了三个交易日的反弹，但资金主动做多意愿不 强，玻璃主力合约连续三个交易日减仓。在分析机构看来，后续玻璃反弹高度或需关注冷修带来的供应收缩强度和需求端变化的博弈。 新华财经北京11月26日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场11月26日涨跌互现，其中花生主力合约涨超3%；多晶硅主力合约涨超2%；玻璃、沪银、碳 酸锂、生猪、液化气、苯乙烯、尿素、苹果、甲醇主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种中，集运欧线主力合约跌超7%；聚丙烯、焦炭、塑料、燃料油、焦煤主力合 约跌超1%。 截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1476.20点，较前一交易日上涨4.70点，涨幅0.32%；中证商品期货指数收报2041.00点，较前一交易日上涨 6.49点，涨幅0.32%。 花生增仓飙升近4% 玻璃减仓反弹近2% 虽然棕榈油、豆油等传统油脂油料品种近期缺乏明显驱动而陷入低位震荡，但产销均以国内市场为主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene is stable with a slight increase, while plastic and polypropylene are falling due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has a downward trend in pure benzene and a stable - supported trend in styrene [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA follows cost - driven logic, ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space, short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different trends for methanol and urea. Methanol may have a long - spread opportunity, while urea is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows that PVC may stop falling and stabilize, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market shows that soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation, and glass may have limited downward space [8]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Market lacks news, with stable enterprise quotes and a slight increase in real - deal prices [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures decline. Plastic has increased supply pressure due to reduced maintenance and more arrivals, and weak demand. Polypropylene's supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices continue to fall. There are concerns about Asian pure benzene exports, but the sustainability is questionable. Downstream demand is weak [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply may decrease slightly, demand is good, and inventory is falling, supporting prices [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [5]. - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space. Short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures adjust narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly. There may be an opportunity to go long on the 5 - 9 spread, but beware of weak reality [6]. - Urea futures fall, and spot prices in the Northeast rise. The supply - surplus situation is expected to continue [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. There is a possibility of export improvement to India, and inventory is decreasing. It may follow cost changes [7]. - Caustic soda shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is in a weak operation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash shows a weak trend. It is in a de - stocking situation, with increased production. It is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [8]. - Glass shows an oscillating trend. There may be limited downward space due to cost support and potential cold - repair [8].

Industry Investment Ratings - Two-olefin: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins declined. Propylene prices were supported, while plastics and polypropylene faced supply pressure and weakening demand but had a technical rebound need [2]. - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but the domestic market faced pressure. Styrene maintained a tight balance with high port inventory but a de - stocking expectation [3]. - PX supported PTA, but PTA faced weakening demand. Ethylene glycol had supply growth pressure and a bearish outlook. Short fiber and bottle chip faced demand weakening [5]. - Methanol was weak due to high inventory and weak demand. Urea might be strong before the Indian tender but could decline later [6]. - PVC continued to decline with high supply and low demand. Caustic soda was in a downward trend with high supply and insufficient demand [7]. - Soda ash declined with a long - term oversupply. Glass continued to decline with high intermediate inventory [8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures fell. Propylene prices were supported by restarted downstream devices and low inventory. Plastic and polypropylene futures fell, with supply pressure and weakening demand but a technical rebound need [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded but lacked sustainability. The domestic market faced pressure. Styrene maintained a tight balance, with high port inventory but a de - stocking expectation [3]. Polyester - PX supported PTA, but PTA faced weakening demand. Ethylene glycol had supply growth pressure and a bearish outlook. Short fiber and bottle chip faced demand weakening [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol was weak due to high inventory and weak demand. Urea might be strong before the Indian tender but could decline later [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline with high supply and low demand. Caustic soda was in a downward trend with high supply and insufficient demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash declined with a long - term oversupply. Glass continued to decline with high intermediate inventory [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]