Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic supply-demand situation of urea remains weak. Towards the weekend, due to the positive expectations of demand after the military parade and the Indian tender, the low-price transactions in some regions improved significantly, and upstream quotes were tentatively raised. The new round of Indian urea tender on September 2nd is generally considered bullish, and attention should be paid to the 15 reverse spread opportunity. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side to some extent. Although factory inventory and pending orders pressure increase, with the opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculative sentiment, urea futures are mainly priced speculatively, so they are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with stronger downside support [4]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on spot sentiment [4]. 2. Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2250 - 2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - **Scenario**: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - **Strategy 1**: Short urea futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to inventory. Sell UR2601 and buy UR2601P1850, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1800 - 1950. - **Strategy 2**: Buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. Sell UR2601C1950, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. Procurement Management - **Scenario**: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to orders. - **Strategy 1**: Buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. Buy UR2601, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1650 - 1750. - **Strategy 2**: Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the urea price drops, the purchase price of spot urea can be locked. Sell UR2601P1650, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, but the market may experience increased volatility in the short term after recent continuous rises. The general approach is to go long on dips [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and potentially continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward space, but the bond market may be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals prices are generally supported. There is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold [7][8]. - Most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as Fed policy and industry supply - demand, with prices showing different trends of strong or weak fluctuations [10][11][12]. - The demand for steel products is weak, and if the demand cannot improve effectively, prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is relatively stronger [25]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and attention should be paid to the progress of steel mill production restrictions [27]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term, and their long - term trends are affected by policies and market supply - demand [28][29]. - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by policies, supply - demand, and inventory, and there are uncertainties [34][37]. - The prices of rubber are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a mid - term bullish view [43]. - The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [44]. - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see; the supply of urea is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of styrene may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point; the PVC market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies; the ethylene glycol market has a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term; the PTA and PX markets are expected to follow the trend of crude oil and go long on dips; the price of polyethylene may oscillate upwards; the price of polypropylene is in a short - term balanced state [45][46][47][49][50][51][52][53][55]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south in the short term, with a range - bound trading strategy; the price of eggs is expected to be mostly stable with a few declines, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds; the price of soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong; the price of sugar is likely to continue to fall; the price of cotton may have upward momentum in the short term [57][58][59][60][61][63][64][65]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: The government promotes the construction of a new real - estate development model, and some companies release performance and trading information [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term, considering policy support and short - term market fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined on Thursday. There are news about Sino - Canadian and Sino - US economic and trade exchanges and local government bond issuance [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a net injection of 16.31 billion yuan on Thursday [5]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to have downward space in the long - term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, considering economic data and the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. The prices are supported by economic data and Fed policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: LME and SHFE copper prices rebounded. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Aluminum - Market: LME and SHFE aluminum prices oscillated. The short - term price has support due to low inventory and expected demand improvement [12]. Zinc - Market: SHFE zinc index declined. The zinc market has an over - supply situation in the medium - term, but the price has short - term support [13]. Lead - Market: SHFE lead index rose. The short - term price has support, but there is a downward risk in the medium - term [14][15]. Nickel - Market: SHFE nickel price declined. The refined nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be volatile [16]. Tin - Market: SHFE tin price rose. The supply and demand of tin are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate declined. The fundamentals are slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [18]. Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose. The short - term price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract price was stable. The short - term demand is weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract price declined. The inventory is increasing, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21][22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The demand for steel products is weak, and the price is under pressure [24][25]. Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract price rose. The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price declined, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [28]. - Soda Ash: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term price center may rise [29]. Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - Market: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the silicon - iron main contract declined slightly. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract price rose. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be volatile [33][34]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon main contract price rose. The price is affected by policies and market news, and there are uncertainties [35][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and a mid - term bullish view is held [39][43]. Crude Oil - Market: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures prices rose. The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good layout opportunity [44]. Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract price rose slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract price rose. The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: The styrene price declined. The price may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point [47]. PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract price declined. The market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract price declined. The supply is still excessive, and there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50]. PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract price declined. The supply is expected to be in a de - stocking state, and it is recommended to go long on dips [51]. p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract price declined. The PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price declined. The price may oscillate upwards due to cost support and expected demand improvement [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price declined. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is in a volatile state [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south, with a range - bound trading strategy [57]. Eggs - Market: The national egg price was mostly stable. The egg market has an over - supply situation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The domestic soybean meal price declined slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][60]. Oils - Market: The domestic three major oils oscillated weakly. The price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong [61][63]. Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined. The international and domestic sugar markets have an over - supply situation, and the price is likely to continue to fall [64]. Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The short - term price may have upward momentum due to expected demand improvement [65].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various factors such as Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, which increase the probability of a September interest rate cut, and trade situation changes. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, with some expected to be bullish and others facing supply - demand imbalances and uncertainties [3][6][9] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to have volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to both macro - level policies and industry - specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][9] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities and break through key core technologies; a new management method for rare earths is released; the photovoltaic industry association advocates against malicious competition; Fed Chair Powell shows a dovish stance on interest rates [2] - **Trading Logic**: After continuous recent rises, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month. On Friday, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 123.2 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to remain loose. Interest rates may have downward space, but the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted, and the bond market may enter a short - term shock pattern [5] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold and silver prices fell. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6] - **Outlook**: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates the start of a new interest rate cut cycle. The market prices in a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and further cuts in December. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. Inventory in the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 million tons. The spot import window opened, and the premium for foreign copper increased. The discount of LME's Cash/3M narrowed, and the domestic spot had a premium over futures [9] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance increasing the probability of a September rate cut, and considering the tight supply of copper raw materials and the approaching peak season, copper prices are expected to rise gradually [9] Aluminum - **Market**: Fed Chair's dovish remarks and the cancellation of some tariffs led to a strong performance of aluminum prices. The weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee for aluminum rods declined [10] - **Outlook**: With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [10] Zinc - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, production restrictions are imposed in Tianjin [11] - **Outlook**: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the import of zinc concentrate is increasing. Although the mid - term oversupply situation remains, the dovish remarks of the Fed strengthen the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [11][12] Lead - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, recycling and production of lead are affected [13] - **Outlook**: The supply of lead is increasing marginally, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is still a downward risk in the medium term due to terminal consumption pressure [13] Nickel - **Market**: Last week, nickel prices continued to fluctuate. The price of nickel ore is weak due to the release of quotas and weak demand. The supply of nickel intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [14] - **Outlook**: Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply of refined nickel is still in surplus, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [14] Tin - **Market**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin is low due to the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand is weak due to the sluggish downstream industries. The social inventory decreased significantly last week [15][16] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of tin is weak, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges provided [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2511 contract also decreased significantly. The oversupply sentiment has cooled down, and the support level for lithium prices has increased [17] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to overseas supply and domestic supply gaps. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2511 contract is provided [17] Alumina - **Market**: On August 22, the alumina index rose. The spot price in Shandong had a premium over the 09 contract. The overseas price remained stable, and the import window was closed. The futures warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Outlook**: With continuous supply disturbances in domestic and overseas ore markets and the Fed's dovish stance, the downward space for alumina futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [18] Stainless Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract declined. The spot price in Foshan remained stable, while that in Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the futures inventory decreased. The social inventory increased [19][20] - **Outlook**: Although low - priced resources impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support prices, and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: On Friday, the AD2511 contract rose. The weighted contract's open interest decreased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [21] - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and the cost is strongly supported, casting aluminum alloy prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [21] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The spot prices of both decreased [23] - **Outlook**: The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel mill's profit is shrinking. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [24] Iron Ore - **Market**: On Friday, the main contract of iron ore declined slightly. The overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply pressure is not significant, but the iron - water increase may be limited due to weak terminal demand. With the Fed's dovish stance, iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of Tangshan's production restrictions [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained stable. The total inventory of glass increased slightly, and the inventory days increased. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but the long - term trend depends on policy and demand changes [27] - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: On August 22, the manganese - silicon main contract declined slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. After Powell's dovish speech, the commodity market rebounded, and there is a risk of a follow - up rise in the ferroalloy market [29] - **Outlook**: Manganese - silicon's price has broken through the support line, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. Ferrosilicon's price is in a narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [29][30] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market**: On Friday, the industrial - silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable. Although the price has rebounded, the problem of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand remains. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [32][33] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance, industrial - silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential industry policies [33] - **Polysilicon Market**: On Friday, the polysilicon futures main contract declined slightly. The spot prices remained stable. The production is increasing, and the warehouse receipts are rising rapidly. There are positive feedback effects in the industrial chain, and the price is expected to be volatile [34] - **Outlook**: In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, polysilicon prices are resilient and are expected to maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on the price [34] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU first declined and then rebounded. The long - and short - term views on rubber prices differ. The long - term view is based on seasonal expectations and demand improvement, while the short - term view is based on weak demand [36][37] - **Outlook**: The opening rate of all - steel tires increased. The rubber price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 positions is suggested [38][40] Crude Oil - **Market**: As of Friday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. The gasoline, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories in Europe decreased, while the diesel and aviation kerosene inventories increased [41] - **Outlook**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and not to chase the price [42] Methanol - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of methanol declined. The coal price rose, the cost increased, and the domestic production started to increase. The overseas production is at a medium - high level, and imports are expected to increase rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is weak, and the inventory is rising [43] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity in the inter - month spread when supply and demand improve [43] Urea - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of urea declined. The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is weak, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export is advancing, and the port inventory is rising [44][45] - **Outlook**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - and - demand situation. It is recommended to buy on dips considering the rising coal price and low production profit [45] Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The macro - environment is positive, and the cost is supported. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the demand is improving [46] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and styrene prices may rebound after the inventory reaches a turning point [46] PVC - **Market**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall production start - up rate decreased. The demand is weak, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [48] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see as the price follows the black - building materials market [48] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply increased, and the downstream load also increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. The profit of different production methods varies, and the cost of ethylene remained stable while the coal price rose [49][50] - **Outlook**: Although the downstream demand is recovering from the off - season, the supply is still excessive. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The downstream and terminal start - up rates improved, and the processing fee increased [51] - **Outlook**: The PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair, and it is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips considering the improvement in the downstream peak season [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX11 contract rose. The domestic and Asian production start - up rates increased. The PTA production start - up rate decreased due to unexpected maintenance. The import increased, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Outlook**: With high PX production and low PTA production, PX is expected to maintain low inventory. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips considering the improving downstream situation [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The futures price of PE rose. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stock up [53] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and PE prices are expected to rise gradually [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The futures price of PP declined. The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the production start - up rate may increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [55] - **Outlook**: In the context of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were stable with some local increases. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while southern farmers are waiting and seeing [57] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is excessive, but policies may support prices. The far - month contracts are recommended to be in a reverse - spread strategy [57] Eggs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable with some local increases. The supply is sufficient, especially for small and medium - sized eggs. The demand is slow, but it may improve later [58] - **Outlook**: The negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: On Friday night, US soybeans rose slightly. The cost of soybean imports decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly over the weekend, and the trading volume was average while the pickup was good [59] - **Outlook**: The cost of soybean imports is expected to be stable. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure and profit at high prices [60] Edible Oils - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased in August, and the production also increased slightly. The EPA approved some exemptions for small - scale refineries. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase [61] - **Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and low inventories support the price of edible oils. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter if the demand and production remain stable [63] Sugar - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [64] - **Outlook**: With increasing production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, and increasing domestic imports, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64] Cotton - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price increased slightly. The downstream start - up rates increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65] - **Outlook**: The Fed's dovish stance is positive for the commodity market. Considering the approaching peak season and low inventory, Zhengzhou cotton prices may have upward momentum in the short term [66]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has reported changes in various futures warehouse receipts as of August 20, indicating fluctuations in inventory levels across multiple commodities [1]. Inventory Changes - Styrene futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 637 contracts [1] - Soybean No. 1 futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 12,397 contracts [1] - Soybean No. 2 futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 contracts to 2,300 contracts [1] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,233 contracts to 82,031 contracts [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts to 13,298 contracts [1] - Soybean meal futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 contracts [1] - Corn starch futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,450 contracts [1] - Coking coal futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 contracts [1] - Palm oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 16 contracts to 1,404 contracts [1] - Egg futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 contracts [1] - Corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,706 contracts to 110,775 contracts [1] - Iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased by 500 contracts to 2,000 contracts [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts increased by 20 contracts to 2,092 contracts [1] - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts decreased by 40 contracts to 7,684 contracts [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 13,940 contracts [1] - Soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,310 contracts [1] - Coking futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 820 contracts [1] - Live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 contracts [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the first cash-settled futures in China's commodity futures market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The introduction of these monthly average price futures will provide more diversified and refined pricing information and risk management tools, enhancing the resilience of supply chains and industrial chains in China [1] - The futures will be based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of corresponding physical delivery futures, which will help stabilize long-term procurement prices for the industry [2] Group 2: Industry Context - Polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene are the three major universal resin products globally, with China being a leading producer and consumer, with projected domestic production in 2024 of 27.91 million tons, 23.44 million tons, and 34.76 million tons respectively [2] - The industry is experiencing increased demand for stable long-term pricing mechanisms due to frequent price fluctuations influenced by domestic and international market conditions [2] Group 3: Risk Management - The contract design of the monthly average price futures addresses the industry's need for risk management while considering market risk prevention, with a holding limit set at one-fifth of the corresponding physical delivery futures [2] - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance the pricing fairness and rationality, ensuring smooth operation post-launch [2] Group 4: Business Strategy - Companies are increasingly looking to use monthly average prices as a reference for trade pricing, but previously lacked adequate risk management tools, making the new futures a significant addition to their trading strategies [3] - The listing of these futures will provide a more direct and precise risk management tool for average price trading, improving overall risk management strategies and operational stability for companies [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" speculative funds exited the market, causing the urea futures to decline, leading to the release of spot and futures sources, and the urea spot market will face pressure. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side. There are traders picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. Factory backlogs and inventory pressures are not large, and spot quotes fluctuate slightly, supporting urea prices. With the gradual opening of export channels, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4] - Urea exports have been confirmed. Urea futures are mainly priced speculatively in the context of strong market speculation, so the futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with enhanced support below. Domestic policy suppression and the association's requirement for factories to sell urea at low prices have a negative impact on the spot sentiment [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Price Range Forecast - Urea price range forecast (monthly) is 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 62.1%. Methanol's price range is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a percentile of 51.2%. Polypropylene and plastic both have a price range of 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When finished - product inventory is high and worried about urea price decline, for a long spot position, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short urea futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can sell UR2509 and buy UR2509P1850 with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 1800 - 1950. Buying put options to prevent large price drops and selling call options to reduce capital costs. Buying put options has a 50% hedging ratio, and selling UR2509C1950 has a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When procurement of regular inventory is low and wants to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising urea prices, buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs. Buy UR2509 with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 1750 - 1900. Selling put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. Sell UR2509P1750 with a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 20 - 25 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].