Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, the chemical futures market shows a mixed performance with various factors influencing different sectors. Some sectors face supply - related pressures, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts declined. Supply pressure is hard to ease due to expected increases in supply from sources like Haiwei and Yulong. The anticipated increase in propylene volume may suppress spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also fell. For polyethylene, domestic supply is increasing while demand has limited impact on price. For polypropylene, supply is abundant and downstream demand only provides limited support [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene futures decreased. Short - term sentiment is bearish due to weakening oil prices, and high imports are a mid - term pressure. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts declined. High inventory and stable downstream demand with increasing finished - product inventory put long - term pressure on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are relatively strong. There is a short - term positive sentiment, but mid - term PTA may face inventory accumulation without effective measures [4] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is short - term inventory reduction, but mid - term accumulation is expected. It is advisable to short at high prices [4] - Short fiber has a good spot market currently, but may face inventory accumulation again. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. Port inventory is under pressure and demand is weak, with the market likely to remain in low - level oscillation [5] - Urea prices fell. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound after prices reach a low point [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply may increase, demand is stable, and exports are under pressure. It may operate in a bottom - range [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply is expected to rise, and downstream demand is average. Futures prices are likely to remain low [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Cost is rising, supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting near the cost [7] - Glass prices rose. There are signs of improvement in the Shahe spot market, but downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Downward movement may be limited [7]

新品种上市 国际贸易中采用月均价作为定价基准,主要是为了平滑价格波动、匹配贸易周期、降低定价争议,并更好 地服务于企业的风险管理和长期合作需求。三个化工品月均价期货的上市填补了境内均价风险管理工具的空 白。 安如泰山 信守承诺 三个化工品种月均价期货上市策略前瞻 塑料期货主力合约今年以来呈现震荡下行的走势,导致塑料和聚丙烯期货价格下跌的驱动来自三个方面, 成本端支撑下滑,供应端新产能释放,需求端开工不足。 本轮的下跌是从2024年11月底12月初开始的,春节期间企业大幅度累库,春节后伴随去库周期，加之油价 持续下行,价格呈现震荡下行走势,4月初关税战导致大宗商品普跌，塑料和聚丙烯期货合约跳空下行,到5月 份价格止跌。之后油价反弹，也带动塑料和聚丙烯期货价格同步反弹，但4月初透留的跳空缺口上沿形成明显的 技术压力,价格在压力位下方震荡整理。8月底价格再度转入下跌趋势。 聚乙烯方面来看，扩产带来的国产量快速增长压力贯穿全年。10月是农膜传统需求旺季，包装膜行业因电 商节等因素需求有支撑，但供需压力难以缓解。进入11、12月份由于新增产能释放，供应端压力增加，加之需 求进入淡季,价格或承压加重。 聚丙烯方面来看，1 ...

以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者牛卉 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货有限公司是中国首批成立的期货公司之一，现为国投证券全资子公司，实际控制人为国有重要骨干企业国投集团。国投期货研究院公众号由专业 团队负责运营，聚焦大宗商品及金融衍生品期货期权，推送市场分析热点点评等。 塑料期货主力合约今年以来呈现震荡下行的走势，导致塑料和聚丙烯期货价格下跌的驱动来自三个方面，成本端支撑下滑，供应端新产能 释放，需求端开工不足。 本轮的下跌是从2024年11月底12月初开始的，春节期间企业大幅度累库，春节后伴随去库周期，加之油价持续下行，价格呈现震荡下行 走势，4月初关税战导致大宗商品普跌，塑料和聚丙烯期货合约跳空下行，到5月份价格止跌。之后油价反弹，也带动塑料和聚丙烯期货价 格同步反弹，但4月初遗留的跳空缺口上沿形成明显的技术压力，价格在压力位下方震荡整理。8月底价格再度转入下跌趋势。 文 | 牛卉 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 国际贸易中采用月均价作为定价基准，主要是为了平滑价格波动、匹配贸易周期、降低定价争议，并更好地服务于企业的风险管理和长期合作需求。三个化 工品月均价期货的上市填 ...

塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。聚乙烯方面，成本支撑增强，但宏观面利好消息陆续消化、无进一 步指引，下游工厂抵触涨价,市场消化涨幅为主,价格部分调整。聚丙烯方面,临近月底,贸易商多完成计划 量，报盘小幅跟涨为主,市场重心小幅提升。下游目前新单未见明显好转，叠加盈利有限,采购积极性不足。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 油价止涨，日内纯苯震荡回落，收于5600元/吨以下；华东统苯价格调整,山东地炼普涨，成交缩量。套利货源 流向港口导致港口累库,纯苯和苯乙烯负荷均有下降,供需同降。油价止涨,市场情绪转弱,反弹乏力;中期 进口量偏高依旧是主要压力,后市关注港口累库节奏,月差反套为主。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内高开低走收跌。苯乙烯供需表现好转,国内工厂接连停车和降幅导致国产供应量进一 步下降、需求维持良好表现,供需紧平衡状态也缓解市场看空情绪，但库存高位,苯乙烯反弹空间有限。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 110. | 下面长期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年10月24日 | | 两烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆★ ...

塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内继续震荡上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，宏观面转为偏暖，成本支撑增强，市场心态 好转,多小幅排涨,但下游抵触涨价,成交放缓。聚丙烯方面,场内业者交投情绪有所改善,贸易商报盘随行 小幅跟涨。但下游工厂需求暂无明显改善,择低按需采买,实盘放量有限。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 油价提振下,纯苯期价继续反弹;华东现货价格同步回升,山东低端报价抬升。上周下游买气偏弱,港口累 库,纯苯价格持续下跌后,利空释放,周度产量继续下降。短期市场担忧重整检修导致供应收缩叠加油价反 弹,纯苯下游积极采购,提振价格;中期进口量偏高依旧是主要压力,后市关注港口累库节奏,月差反套为 主。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内继续上行收涨。油价震荡上涨，地缘溢价回归，成本端带动下苯乙烯短期走势偏强。 供需基本面上,苯乙烯市场存装置降负停工消息,但多为预期,尚未落地,库存继续高位难去,对苯乙烯上行 空间形成压制。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 【聚酯) | 110. 国技期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【10月23日大商所化工品仓单有变动】10月23日公布大商所化工品仓单及变化数据。聚乙烯期货仓单 12958手，环比减少6手。聚氯乙烯期货仓单121448手，环比减少333手。聚丙烯期货仓单14586手，环比 持平。苯乙烯期货仓单858手，环比减少249手。乙二醇期货仓单7945手，环比持平。液化石油气期货仓 单2416手，环比增加116手。 ...

【10月23日大商所化工品仓单数据公布】10月23日，大商所发布化工品仓单及变化数据。聚乙烯期货仓 单12958手，环比减少6手；聚氯乙烯期货仓单121448手，环比减少333手。聚丙烯期货仓单14586手，环 比持平；苯乙烯期货仓单858手，环比减少249手。乙二醇期货仓单7945手，环比持平；液化石油气期货 仓单2416手，环比增加116手。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Propylene, Plastic, PVC: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene, Short Fiber: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1][5] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Soda Ash, Glass: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The prices of most chemical products in the market are under pressure, with some showing downward trends and some in a state of weak shocks. The supply and demand situation of different products varies, and short - term and medium - term trends are affected by multiple factors such as cost, supply, demand, and external market conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved. Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. Polyethylene had a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Polypropylene faced increased supply and weak downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices oscillated at a low level, with inventory rising and import pressure remaining. Month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Styrene futures prices continued to decline, with cost support weakening and short - term supply - demand improvement having limited impact on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices continued to be weak, with PTA having a stockpiling expectation. Ethylene glycol lacked substantial positive factors in the short term. Short fiber was a short - term long - position allocation, while bottle chips faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol in coastal areas might show different inventory trends, with short - term shocks and a medium - to - long - term upward trend. Urea market supply and demand remained loose, and the short - term market would continue to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC might show a weak downward trend, with supply increasing and future export facing pressure. For caustic soda, short - selling should be cautious due to unfalsified downstream replenishment demand and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline, with high supply pressure. Glass continued to weaken, but the decline was expected to be limited due to low valuation [8]

聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年10月17日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6500-7000 | 9.20% | 11.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 6900-7000 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 理 | 格下跌 | | 业 ...