Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and reduced downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently, with a higher plastic operating rate than PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 85% (neutral), while PP operating rate rose to around 81% (slightly below neutral). As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. The easing of the Iran situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. New production capacities have been put into operation for both PE and PP. With continuous decline in agricultural film and plastic weaving orders, and approaching the Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline. Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and they are expected to fluctuate in a range [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to around 85% due to new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE, and is currently at a neutral level. PP operating rate increased by 2 percentage points to around 81% as maintenance devices like Jingbo Polyolefin Line 2 restarted, and is at a slightly below - neutral level [12] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. The plastic - weaving operating rate of the main downstream of PP decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic - weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [18] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 05 contract rose to 135 yuan/ton due to the supplementary increase in spot prices, and is at a relatively low - neutral level [22] Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction has been good after the New Year's Day, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and the upward space for polyolefins is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率 remains around 87% (neutral level), while PP开工率 drops to around 79% (neutral - low level). After the New Year's Day holiday as of the week of January 9, PE下游开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% (still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years), and PP下游开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years). The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price rebounded slightly due to geopolitical factors. There are new production capacities for both PE and PP. With the end of the agricultural film peak season and reduced demand in the north, the downstream开工率 is expected to decline. Although the macro environment is positive, it has limited impact on the polyolefin supply - demand pattern. [4] 3.2 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic: The number of maintenance devices has changed little, and the开工率 remains around 87% (a neutral level). - PP: With the addition of maintenance devices such as the second line of Fujian United, the enterprise开工率 dropped 3 percentage points to around 79% (a relatively low level). [16] 3.3 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - PE demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - PP demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. [22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price has increased to catch up, and the basis of the 05 contract has risen to - 24 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level. [26] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased 0.5 tons to 57 tons week - on - week, 1 ton higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. [30]

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to have limited upside potential due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern, with downstream order cycles shortening and some spot prices remaining weak [3] - The spread between L and PP is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity coming online and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season [3] - Plastic and PP are expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic's operating rate has risen to around 87%, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82%, at a slightly below - neutral level [3][15] - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, and PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years [3][21] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, with significant pressure [3][28] - Crude oil prices are weak despite geopolitical concerns, as the key oil facilities in Venezuela are undamaged and its output accounts for less than 1% of global supply [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation recently, including ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE in Huizhou in October, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 700,000 - ton/year PE in November, and BASF's 500,000 - ton/year product in Guangdong recently; PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year PP was put into operation in mid - October [3] - The agricultural film season is ending, orders for products like plastic weaving are decreasing, and terminal construction is slowing down, especially in the north, leading to reduced demand [3] - Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, mainly for刚需, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at lower prices [3] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic's operating rate has increased to around 87% due to the restart of some maintenance devices, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82% with little change in maintenance devices, at a slightly below - neutral level [15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, with agricultural film orders decreasing and packaging film orders increasing slightly, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [21] - As of the week of January 2nd, PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product dropping 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders slightly lower than last year [21] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price is stable, the futures price has risen, and the basis of the 05 contract has dropped to - 172 yuan/ton, at a low level [24] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The Wednesday's early petrochemical inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in recent years [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's one - sided strategy rating is neutral, and there is no cross - period strategy [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing crude oil and propane prices to run strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and it is expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP device on Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply is expected to increase. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, the demand side remains sluggish, the start - up is expected to remain stable, and the overall operating load is at a low level. The start - up rate of packaging film is lower than the same period in previous years, the start - up of plastic weaving has decreased, the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the macro - level uncertainty is strong [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7271元/吨（+21），PP主力合约收盘价为7084元/吨（+10），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-80），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为49元/吨（-101），LL华东基差为79元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为116元/吨（-50） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）；PE油制生产利润为458.8元/吨（+241.7），PP油制生产利润为58.8元/吨（+241.7），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 1.5元/吨（+139.6） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 6.2元/吨（-90.0），PP进口利润为 - 338.8元/吨（-9.7），PP出口利润为 - 0.7美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.6%（-0.8%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and middle - stream trader inventory has decreased, but no specific data is provided [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - New devices such as the 500,000 - ton/year PP device of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 4th line and the 450,000 - ton/year PE device of Yulong Petrochemical have been successfully put into production, and the future supply of polyolefins is on the rise [2] - Due to the intensifying geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran, the prices of crude oil and propane are running strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced [2] - The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, with weakening demand, and it is expected to maintain a low operating load; the packaging film industry has a low year - on - year operating rate, the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is decreasing, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [2] - Polyolefin production enterprise inventories are slightly accumulating, while middle - stream trader inventories are decreasing. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is strong uncertainty in the macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate is 78.7% (- 0.5%), and the oil - based production profit is - 264.8 yuan/ton (+ 121.8); for PP, the operating rate is 79.6% (+ 0.9%), the oil - based production profit is - 664.8 yuan/ton (+ 121.8), and the PDH - based production profit is - 192.8 yuan/ton (- 47.1) [1][18][19] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures involve the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [27][34][35] 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is 26.6 yuan/ton (- 20.1), PP import profit is - 306.4 yuan/ton (+ 9.9), and PP export profit is - 4.7 US dollars/ton (- 1.2) [1][39][51] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (- 0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (- 0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0%) [1][61][64] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventories are slightly accumulating, and middle - stream trader inventories are decreasing [2]