冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月5日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至87%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率维持在82%左右，处于中性偏低水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环 比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜 订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%， 处于历年同期偏低水平。其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平，压力较大。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目 前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，原油价格依然疲软。另外，新增产能，P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's one - sided strategy rating is neutral, and there is no cross - period strategy [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing crude oil and propane prices to run strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and it is expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP device on Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply is expected to increase. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, the demand side remains sluggish, the start - up is expected to remain stable, and the overall operating load is at a low level. The start - up rate of packaging film is lower than the same period in previous years, the start - up of plastic weaving has decreased, the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the macro - level uncertainty is strong [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7271元/吨（+21），PP主力合约收盘价为7084元/吨（+10），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-80），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为49元/吨（-101），LL华东基差为79元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为116元/吨（-50） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）；PE油制生产利润为458.8元/吨（+241.7），PP油制生产利润为58.8元/吨（+241.7），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 1.5元/吨（+139.6） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 6.2元/吨（-90.0），PP进口利润为 - 338.8元/吨（-9.7），PP出口利润为 - 0.7美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.6%（-0.8%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and middle - stream trader inventory has decreased, but no specific data is provided [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-24 新装置顺利投产，供应端压力渐增 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7444元/吨（+29），PP主力合约收盘价为7262元/吨（+20），LL华北现货为7440 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7500元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为7260元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-4元/吨（-69），LL 华东基差为56元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-2元/吨（-50）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-264.8元/吨（+121.8），PP油制生产利润为-664.8元/吨（+121.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-192.8元/吨（-47.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为26.6元/吨（-20.1），PP进口利润为-306.4元/吨（+9.9），PP出口利润为-4.7美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%）， ...