聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月5日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至87%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率维持在82%左右，处于中性偏低水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环 比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜 订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%， 处于历年同期偏低水平。其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平，压力较大。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目 前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，原油价格依然疲软。另外，新增产能，P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - **PP**: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: Not provided [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polyolefin industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic (PE)开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, at a neutral level [14] - PP开工率 rose by 0.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 21, PE下游开工率 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%, still at a relatively low level in recent years [19] - As of the week of November 21, PP下游开工率 rose by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19] Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 150 yuan/ton, at a slightly below - neutral level [24] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed down [28] Market Situation and Outlook - The petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly above - neutral level in recent years [3][28] - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation, including ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical PE with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons, and PP with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and orders for products like plastic weaving have limited follow - up, with the peak season falling short of expectations [3] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling goods at reduced prices [3] - There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the polyolefin industry yet, and relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]