聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-21 7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-167元/吨（-80），LL 华东基差为-47元/吨（-40）， PP华东基差为-76元/吨（-60）。 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为-84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为178.2元/吨（+6.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为-545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - PE's supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity output, while PP's current low overall operating rate will face greater supply - side pressure in the future. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season with a positive long - term outlook [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][14][18] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [25][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [38][43][50] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Figures are about PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven fabric operating rate, PP downstream BOPP film operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven fabric production profit margin, and PP downstream BOPP production profit margin [60][59][68] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures contain PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [70][73][79] 4. Market Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 7095 yuan/ton (+33), LL North China spot at 7220 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot at 7280 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 7040 yuan/ton (+0), LL North China basis at - 94 yuan/ton (-24), LL East China basis at - 34 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 55 yuan/ton (-33) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 373.7 yuan/ton (-12.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 106.3 yuan/ton (-12.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 208.1 yuan/ton (-47.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 71.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP import profit was - 505.8 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP export profit was 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven fabric operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. However, the supply pressure continued, and new PE and PP production facilities were planned to be put into operation in the third quarter. The demand was weak and needed improvement, and the downstream operating load remained low overall. It was expected that the demand would gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but the downstream enterprises mainly maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active replenishment was limited. The policy - driven market led the polyolefins to follow, but the loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, the polyolefins would return to a weak and volatile operation [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and finally closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (0.45%). The trading volume was 167,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,020 to 291,496 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.17%), and the open interest decreased by 7,127 to 251,400 lots [6] - **Supply**: In the third quarter, new PE production facilities of Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical were planned to be put into operation. The second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total annual production capacity of 900,000 tons was expected to be launched, which would have a significant impact on the supply side [6] - **Demand**: The downstream operating load remained low overall. Although the operating rate of the agricultural film industry rebounded from a low level, the demand followed up slowly. The orders in the construction field were mediocre, and the operating rates of the pipe and plastic weaving industries were at historical lows in the same period. The demand for daily - use injection - molded products increased slightly month - on - month [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.48%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices partially increased. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,170 - 7,450 yuan/ton, in East China 7,230 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,320 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The propylene market price in Shandong increased significantly. As of the 12 - o'clock closing, the reference price was 6,250 - 6,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. The temporary shutdown of some supply facilities boosted the operators' sentiment, and enterprises mainly raised their offers. The downstream followed up actively, the premium range of actual orders expanded, and the trading center shifted significantly upwards [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with a slight upward trend, and some prices increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of drawn PP in North China were in the range of 6,940 - 7,080 yuan/ton, in East China 7,000 - 7,130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6,960 - 7,150 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple charts, including the LLDPE basis, PP basis, LLDPE - PP price spread, crude oil futures main - contract settlement price, inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the two - oil inventory, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's one - sided strategy rating is neutral, and there is no cross - period strategy [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing crude oil and propane prices to run strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and it is expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP device on Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply is expected to increase. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, the demand side remains sluggish, the start - up is expected to remain stable, and the overall operating load is at a low level. The start - up rate of packaging film is lower than the same period in previous years, the start - up of plastic weaving has decreased, the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the macro - level uncertainty is strong [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7271元/吨（+21），PP主力合约收盘价为7084元/吨（+10），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-80），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为49元/吨（-101），LL华东基差为79元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为116元/吨（-50） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）；PE油制生产利润为458.8元/吨（+241.7），PP油制生产利润为58.8元/吨（+241.7），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 1.5元/吨（+139.6） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 6.2元/吨（-90.0），PP进口利润为 - 338.8元/吨（-9.7），PP出口利润为 - 0.7美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.6%（-0.8%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and middle - stream trader inventory has decreased, but no specific data is provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has eased, causing a significant decline in crude oil and propane prices, weakening the cost - side support for polyolefins. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and they are expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP unit of Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply shows an increasing trend. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, with the demand side remaining sluggish. The operating load is expected to remain stable and at a low level. The operating rate of packaging film is lower than the same period last year, the plastic weaving operating rate is decreasing, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased [1][2] Summary According to the Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7,250 yuan/ton (- 194), and the PP main contract closed at 7,074 yuan/ton (- 188). The LL North China spot was 7,400 yuan/ton (- 40), the LL East China spot was 7,400 yuan/ton (- 100), and the PP East China spot was 7,240 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL North China basis was 150 yuan/ton (+ 154), the LL East China basis was 150 yuan/ton (+ 94), and the PP East China basis was 166 yuan/ton (+ 168) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.7% (- 0.5%), and the PP operating rate was 79.6% (+ 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was 217.1 yuan/ton (+ 482.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 262.9 yuan/ton (+ 482.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 141.1 yuan/ton (+ 51.7) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 83.8 yuan/ton (+ 57.2), the PP import profit was - 329.0 yuan/ton (- 22.7), and the PP export profit was - 1.9 US dollars/ton (+ 2.8) [2] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.1% (- 0.3%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.6% (- 0.8%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+ 0.0%) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]