聚烯烃日报 | 2026-02-27 下游复工缓慢，去库压力仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6668元/吨（-109），PP主力合约收盘价为6675元/吨（-45），LL华北现货为6580 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6660元/吨（-120），PP华东现货为6650元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-88元/吨（+9）， LL华东基差为-8元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差为-25元/吨（+15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.0%（-0.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（-0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-215.7元/吨（+13.9），PP油制生产利润为-555.7元/吨（+13.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-467.7元/吨（+20.3）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-42.0元/吨（-17.3），PP进口利润为-390.5元/吨（-58.0），PP出口利润为-62.5美元/吨（-8.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为10.1%（-14.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为24.7%（+4.4%），PP下游塑编开工 率为29.3%（+5.2%），PP下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. The plastic will follow the weak market sentiment, and the supply - demand pattern of plastic before the Spring Festival will improve little. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate has risen to around 90% (neutral level), while PP enterprise operating rate has dropped to around 78.5% (low level). New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year for Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026. There are limited planned maintenance devices in February, and the supply pressure remains high [3] - As of the week ending January 30, PE downstream operating rate decreased 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.79 percentage points to 52.08%. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, while the PP downstream operating rate is at a neutral level [3] - At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was quickly depleted and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited due to the cooling of geopolitical situation and the weakening of the cold snap. The downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and pre - holiday stocking is limited [3] Market Review - In late January, the increase in spot prices was less than that in futures prices, and the basis of plastics and PP both dropped to a relatively low level [13][20] Production and Operating Rate - In December 2025, PE maintenance volume increased 12.70% month - on - month to 440,000 tons and 13.75% year - on - year. PE production increased 4.08% month - on - month to 3.0088 million tons and 19.55% year - on - year. The PE operating rate increased 0.12 percentage points to 83.56% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 90% [25][29] - In December 2025, PP maintenance volume increased 0.54% month - on - month to 710,200 tons and 4.23% year - on - year. PP production increased 2.67% month - on - month to 3.5579 million tons and 15.51% year - on - year. The PP operating rate decreased 0.61 percentage points to 77.82% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 78.5% [33][37] Import and Export - In December 2025, China's PE imports were 1.3299 million tons (up 4.62% year - on - year and 25.21% month - on - month), and exports were 92,100 tons (up 58.30% year - on - year and 7.27% month - on - month). The net imports of PE in December 2025 were 1.2378 million tons (up 2.04% year - on - year). The LLDPE net imports are expected to continue to decline in 2026 [43] - In December 2025, China's PP imports were 332,400 tons (down 1.28% year - on - year and up 9.02% month - on - month), and exports were 267,800 tons (up 35.80% year - on - year and 4.04% month - on - month). PP net imports are expected to continue to decline [49] Downstream of Polyolefins - In 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 79.1991 million tons (down 0.2% year - on - year), and the export amount was 748.7 billion yuan (down 1.3% year - on - year) [53] - As of the week ending January 30, the PE downstream operating rate decreased to 37.76%, and the PP downstream operating rate decreased to 52.08%. The plastic film orders and woven bag orders both decreased slightly [57] Polyolefin Inventory - As of January 30, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, which was 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [61] Polyolefin Profit - In January, except for the oil - based process, the profits of other LLDPE processes rebounded, and the profits of coal - based and ethylene - based processes turned positive. The profits of all PP processes were still in the red, but the losses of the MTO, PDH, and coal - based processes narrowed [64]

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，处于中性偏高水平。PP开工率下跌至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平。截至1月23日当周，PE下游开 工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升， 整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。石化1月上中旬去 库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上 伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。另外，新增产能，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and reduced downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently, with a higher plastic operating rate than PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 85% (neutral), while PP operating rate rose to around 81% (slightly below neutral). As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. The easing of the Iran situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. New production capacities have been put into operation for both PE and PP. With continuous decline in agricultural film and plastic weaving orders, and approaching the Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline. Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and they are expected to fluctuate in a range [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to around 85% due to new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE, and is currently at a neutral level. PP operating rate increased by 2 percentage points to around 81% as maintenance devices like Jingbo Polyolefin Line 2 restarted, and is at a slightly below - neutral level [12] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. The plastic - weaving operating rate of the main downstream of PP decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic - weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [18] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 05 contract rose to 135 yuan/ton due to the supplementary increase in spot prices, and is at a relatively low - neutral level [22] Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction has been good after the New Year's Day, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - side disturbances drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals restricts the rebound space. The supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - price imported goods, while the demand is weak as it's the off - season, and the downstream开工 rate continues to decline [1][2]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment turning warm, supply - side shrinkage expectations, and cost - side support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. The short - term rebound depends on the increase in supply - side maintenance scale, but the price rebound space may be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6449 yuan/ton (-23), PP main contract at 6330 yuan/ton (-18). LL North China spot was 6400 yuan/ton (+100), LL East China spot at 6480 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot at 6190 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+123), LL East China basis at 31 yuan/ton (+103), PP East China basis at - 140 yuan/ton (+48) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE开工 rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP开工 rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 64.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PP oil - based production profit was - 415.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PDH - made PP production profit was - 828.8 yuan/ton (-35.7) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was 99.3 yuan/ton (-2.5), PP import profit was - 351.2 yuan/ton (+7.4), PP export profit was - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工 rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film开工 rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工 rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film开工 rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Short - term sentiment and cost factors drive the price to stop falling, but the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. New device production and expected increase in imports increase supply, while downstream demand remains weak as it's the off - season, and the开工 rate is expected to decline further [2]. - **PP**: Market sentiment, supply - side expectations, and cost support drive the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory and limited downstream demand improvement [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are under the "wait - and - see" strategy. The short - term may continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4]. - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to have limited upside potential due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern, with downstream order cycles shortening and some spot prices remaining weak [3] - The spread between L and PP is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity coming online and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season [3] - Plastic and PP are expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic's operating rate has risen to around 87%, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82%, at a slightly below - neutral level [3][15] - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, and PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years [3][21] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, with significant pressure [3][28] - Crude oil prices are weak despite geopolitical concerns, as the key oil facilities in Venezuela are undamaged and its output accounts for less than 1% of global supply [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation recently, including ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE in Huizhou in October, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 700,000 - ton/year PE in November, and BASF's 500,000 - ton/year product in Guangdong recently; PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year PP was put into operation in mid - October [3] - The agricultural film season is ending, orders for products like plastic weaving are decreasing, and terminal construction is slowing down, especially in the north, leading to reduced demand [3] - Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, mainly for刚需, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at lower prices [3] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic's operating rate has increased to around 87% due to the restart of some maintenance devices, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82% with little change in maintenance devices, at a slightly below - neutral level [15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, with agricultural film orders decreasing and packaging film orders increasing slightly, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [21] - As of the week of January 2nd, PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product dropping 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders slightly lower than last year [21] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price is stable, the futures price has risen, and the basis of the 05 contract has dropped to - 172 yuan/ton, at a low level [24] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The Wednesday's early petrochemical inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in recent years [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].