冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率上涨至83.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平。PE下游开工率 环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再 次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比上涨 0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略 有减少，略低于去年同期。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦 克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连 斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。另外，新增产能，新增产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - The plastic operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, reaching a neutral level [14] - The PP operating rate rose by 3.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [20] - As of the week of November 7, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [20] 3. Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract rose to 298 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [25] 4. Plastic and PP库存 - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to recent years [29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨（-11）, PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨（-14）, LL华北现货为6890元/吨（-10）, LL华东现货为7000元/吨（-20）, PP华东现货为6580元/吨（+0）, LL华北基差为2元/吨（+1）, LL华东基差为112元/吨（-9）, PP华东基差为4元/吨（+14） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨（-54.1）, PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨（-54.1）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨（-55.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨（-51.6）, PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨（-11.4）, PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨（+1.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that polyolefins will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Although the previous cost increase and macro - economic improvement have driven the rebound of polyolefins, their own upward momentum is insufficient. Currently, the peak - season demand is below expectations, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Additionally, the anti - involution policies for the polyolefin industry have not been implemented yet [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Trend - Plastic and PP prices first rose and then declined [4]. b. Production Rate - Plastic production rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points to around 85%, at a neutral level. New maintenance devices such as those in Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density production were added [15]. - PP production rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. New maintenance devices like those in CNOOC Daxie's new first - line were added, while some devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's second - line restarted [15]. c. Downstream Production Rate - As of the week ending October 31, PE downstream production rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film sector is in the peak season with increasing orders and raw material inventory, reaching a neutral level in recent years, packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream production rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [21]. - As of the week ending October 31, PP downstream production rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic - weaving production rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, and plastic - weaving orders decreased slightly compared with the previous week and were slightly lower than the same period last year [21]. d. Basis - Spot prices were stable, while futures prices declined. The basis of the 01 contract rose to 201 yuan/ton, at a neutral - low level [24]. e. Inventory - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons week - on - week to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [28]. f. Cost and New Capacity - Recently, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - New production capacity includes the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou)'s 500,000 - ton/year LDPE and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - **PP**: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP - **Inter - term**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent increase in costs and improved macro - sentiment have driven the rebound of polyolefins, but polyolefins lack self - upward momentum. It is expected that polyolefins will mainly show weak fluctuations in November. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US trade war and anti - involution policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率is around 86.5%, at a neutral level; PP企业开工率is around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. PE下游开工率has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75%, and PP下游开工率has rebounded by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected, with the downstream purchasing willingness being insufficient [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The futures price has dropped more than the spot price, and the basis has rebounded but is still at a relatively low - neutral level. For PP, the spot price has dropped more than the futures price, and the basis has decreased to a low level, with a relatively lower fluctuation range compared to plastics [14][21]. 3.3 Plastic Production - In September 2025, the PE maintenance volume increased by 16.27% month - on - month to 53.24 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 270.65 million tons. The PE开工率decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 80.43% in September 2025, but recently it has risen to around 86.5% [25][29]. 3.4 PP Production - In September 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 15.12% month - on - month to 75.74 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.45% month - on - month to 334.86 million tons. The PP开工率decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 76.32% in September 2025, and recently it has dropped to around 80% [33][37]. 3.5 PE Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PE进口量was 102.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.07%, and the出口量was 9.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.55%. The LLDPE进口利润is in continuous loss, and the import volume is expected to remain low [43]. 3.6 PP Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PP进口量was 29.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.94%, and the出口量was 23.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.97%. The PP拉丝进口 window has been continuously closed, and the net import is expected to decline [49]. 3.7 Polyolefin Downstream - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 5937.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the export amount was 5595.38 billion yuan, with the growth rate rising to 3.90% in September [53]. 3.8 Polyolefin Inventory - During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 27 million tons. As of October 24, it decreased by 4 million tons to 72 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [61]. 3.9 Polyolefin Profit - The profits of coal - based and oil - based PE decreased in August. The coal - based PP process profit has fallen into a loss again, while the loss of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene processes has slightly narrowed [65].