国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 "缩表+降息"：新美联储主席的政策主张 沃什最令人瞩目的政策主张是"降息+缩表"。他认为美联储需要为通胀负责，而危机后持续 QE 是导致通胀的主要原因，因而要通过 QT 控制通胀，而一旦通胀风险和政策扭曲被纠正，就可以为降息 创造空间，沃什称此为"实用的货币主义"。 上述政策主张的背后是一场货币政策的机制改革。沃什曾多次批评美联储的巨额资产负债表，认 为 QE 扭曲了市场激励：2008 年金融危机美联储转向"充足储备机制"，向银行释放大量超额准备 金，然后通过向准备金支付利息来控制利率走廊，这使得银行可以"躺平吃利息"，向实体经济的放 贷意愿下降，资金"脱实向虚"。沃什主张通过缩表降低银行的准备金规模，提升银行的放贷意愿， 扭转后危机时代的充足储备机制，并向危机前的"紧缺储备机制"过渡。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 梁中华(分析 ...

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The core policy proposition of Walsh is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, attributing it to prolonged quantitative easing (QE) post-crisis, and advocating for quantitative tightening (QT) to control inflation [6] - Walsh criticizes the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet, arguing that QE distorts market incentives and leads to a decline in banks' willingness to lend to the real economy, thus promoting a transition from a "sufficient reserves" mechanism to a "scarce reserves" mechanism [6] - The policy approach aims to balance the independence of the Federal Reserve with the administration's desire for rate cuts, reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation while addressing the administration's economic goals [6] Group 2: Economic Implications - QT is viewed as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of unlimited support for demand, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capacity from an industrial policy perspective [6] - The implementation of QT has shown effectiveness in controlling inflation, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from 9% to around 3% following the announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [6] - However, the use of QT has limitations, as recent liquidity tensions in the repurchase market have led to a halt in QT, necessitating the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition to a "scarce reserves" mechanism is expected to be challenging, with liquidity issues remaining a constraint on QT implementation until bank reserves return to a relatively sufficient level [6] - Policies aimed at revitalizing manufacturing and the real estate sector under the Trump administration require credit expansion from banks, which is dependent on adequate reserve levels [6] - The shift in policy focus from Wall Street to Main Street is seen as beneficial for addressing the "K"-shaped economic divergence in the U.S., but balancing the conflicts between the upper end (stock market) and lower end (inflation) remains a challenge for Walsh [6]

www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 指数化投资买入多资产时代：2025年1月26日，中国证监会正式印发《促进资本市场指数化投资高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），明确将"稳慎推进指数产品创新"作为重点 任务，其中"研究推出多资产ETF"被列为创新方向之一。中证、中债、国证等指数公司在相关指数上早有储备，涵盖恒定比例、目标风险、目标日期、风险控制、风险平价等多资产指数，并 在2025年年内发行较多股债恒定比例指数。 ◼ 股债恒定指数的基本特征：股票部分聚焦传统宽基+红利低波/自由现金流指数；债券部分主要是利率债指数，其中中证国债指数、中债新综合指数久期较长；以2025年以来发布的股债恒定指 数为样本，跟踪其近三年的收益风险特征表现，整体上看大幅优于二级债基指数，但是不同权益仓位的股债恒定指数所对应的风险等级差异较大，权益仓位10%及以内的产品可以做到回撤控制 在1.5%以内、年化收益在3%-5%之间，类似低波固收+的特征，而不同系列中现金流类股债恒定指数的calmar比较高，吸引力更强。 ◼ 股债恒定ETF的优势：1）管理费率优势：股债恒定ETF主要用以替代固收+基金，目前主流的固收+产品 ...

Report's Core Questions - The report aims to address the impact of the issuance of fixed stock-bond ETFs on the bond market [4][6][11] Group 1: Characteristics of Fixed Stock-Bond Index - **Index Composition**: The fixed stock-bond index combines stocks and bonds. It has various stock-bond ratios and is linked to different underlying indices. The stock side mainly includes large-cap dividend and low-volatility indices, while the bond side focuses on interest rate bonds, emphasizing low volatility and stability [6][11][12] - **Core Mechanism**: The index performs passive rebalancing regularly to maintain the preset stock-bond ratio. This mechanism helps prevent chasing up and selling down and acts as a stabilizer in extreme market fluctuations [6][15] Group 2: Impact on the Bond Market - **Incremental Funds**: Fixed stock-bond ETFs are expected to bring incremental allocation funds to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [6][17][19] - **Market Behavior**: Through rebalancing operations, these ETFs can smooth out large fluctuations in the bond market and reduce the extremity of the stock-bond seesaw effect. However, the concentrated rebalancing of the index may cause short-term pulse impacts [6][17][19] Group 3: Variables Affecting the Degree of Impact - **Actual Product Scale**: In the short term, the scale of fixed stock-bond ETFs may be limited, and their impact on the stock and bond markets may gradually emerge as market participation increases and a scale trend forms [6][19] - **Investor Redemption Behavior**: Concentrated redemptions during large market fluctuations may force funds to reduce their stock and bond holdings simultaneously, amplifying market volatility [6][19]