• 盈利稳：银行、公用事业、电信运营商这类龙头，就算经济波动也能赚钱； • 分红稳：国央企市值管理新政鼓励分红，分红手续费还降了，政策托底明显。 上海的陈先生去年买了某电信央企股票，除了每年 5.3% 的分红，股价还涨了 12%，算下来年化收益 17%。他说："比存款赚得多，风险比炒股小，适合不 想操心的普通人。" 公募 REITs 也是好选择。保障房类 REITs 股息率普遍 3%-4%，底层是收租金的实物资产，相当于 "买了个能收租的门面"，比存款灵活，收益还更高。 10 年期国债收益率跌到 1.6%，国有大行 3 年定存利率破 2%，货币基金收益连创新低。 数据很扎心：居民存款单月新增 1.8 万亿元，大家都在把钱往银行搬。但另一面，北向资金单周净流入 230 亿元，社保基金悄悄加仓两类资产 —— 高股息 股票和长久期成长标的。 不是存钱错了，是只存钱会亏。低利率时代，钱躺在银行里，每年实际购买力都在缩水。聪明钱早就看懂：与其赚 1.5% 的利息，不如布局能穿越周期的核 心资产。 1. 高股息资产：5%+ 收益的 "类存款" 替代品 利率越低，稳定分红越香。中证红利指数现在股息率 5.16%，比 3 年 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这个逻辑也很容易理解：一轮牛熊市7-10 年,如果只看2-3年数据,容易盲人摸象。 解决方法: 找同风格的、其他历史比较长 的指数，作为参考。 过，对历史数据的参考，最好包括历史的 几轮牛熊市。 一般同风格品种，涨跌上会比较相似。历 史的高低估阶段会相对重合。 例如是小盘股，可以参考中证1000;成长 风格，可以参考成长指数。 来模拟以前牛熊市大致的涨跌幅度。 (2) 指数规则修改，带来估值变化。 此时看百分位意义也不大。 例如中证100，名称修改为中证A100。从 原来按照市值的大小挑选股票，变成类似 于A500的龙头策略。 估值就发生较大变化。 再比如 H股指数,早些年是40只股票,金 融行业占比高。后来改为50只股票，纳入 了不少互联网公司。 规则修改后，以前的历史估值也就失去了 参考价值。 解决方法: 按照新规则，去计算以前的估 值数据。 早期红利指数是市值加权，也就是哪个股 票市值大，在指数中占比高。 当时的红利指数，银行股占比能达到60% 以上。 现在红利指数,是股息率加权。哪个股息 率高，在指数中占比高。 (3) 指数估值加权算法不同，带来百分位 发生变化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing market interest in dividend assets, particularly the CSI Dividend ETF (515080), which has seen significant net subscriptions and is currently undergoing dividend distribution [1][2][3] - As of September 17, the CSI Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 4.86%, indicating a favorable investment environment for high-dividend Chinese assets due to declining short-term overseas risk-free rates [2][3] - The CSI Dividend ETF has accumulated a total of 14 dividends since its inception, with a cumulative distribution amounting to 3.65 yuan per ten shares, providing investors with a stable and predictable asset allocation option in the A-share market [1][2] Group 2 - Recent data shows that the relative performance of dividend assets compared to the broader market (WIND All A) has reached a low of -14.83%, suggesting that dividend assets may attract incremental capital inflows due to their perceived value [3] - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities predict that the A-share market is likely to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with a focus on sectors such as technology independence, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks for medium to long-term investment [4] - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profitability, investment opportunities in undervalued consumer sectors supported by policy, and growth in high-tech industries such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors [4]

9月16日，招商基金旗下中证红利ETF（515080）将迎来三季度分红权益登记。根据此前分红公告，本 季度该ETF每十份分红0.15元，分红比例0.95%。据了解，目前中证红利ETF采取季度评估分红的分红节 奏。 根据公告，这是中证红利ETF上市以来第14次分红，每十份累计分红金额3.65元。过去五年（2020 年-2024年），中证红利ETF年度分红比例分别为4.53%、4.14%、4.19%、4.78%、4.66%。 资金面上，近期随着市场缩量震荡，部分市场资金回流高股息。上交所数据显示，中证红利ETF （515080）已经连续4日获1.34亿元资金净申购。 与此同时，40日收益差数据也持续年内低位震荡。根据招商基金数据，截至9月12日，中证红利全收益 指数相对万得全A指数40日收益差为-12.25%，这也意味着中证红利当前跑输Wind全A比较多，或可更 多关注阶段性布局机会。 对于当下高股息配置价值，长江证券最新分析表示，近三年保险公司持有股票与基金的规模占比在 12%~13%区间波动，这一数值仍有较大上升空间，此政策下保险或将每年至少为A股新增几千亿的长期 资金。波动率较低且分红较高的红利资产或迎来更 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a leading company in the technology sector, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives taken to enhance market position [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year, reaching $5 billion in the last quarter [3] - Net income rose to $1.2 billion, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a new product line aimed at expanding its customer base, which is expected to contribute an additional $500 million in revenue over the next fiscal year [3] - Investments in research and development have increased by 15%, totaling $300 million, to drive innovation and maintain competitive advantage [3] Market Position - The company has gained a 5% market share in the emerging markets, positioning itself as a leader in the technology sector [3] - Partnerships with key industry players have been established to enhance distribution channels and improve service delivery [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the overall profit growth of listed companies remains stable, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a continued decline in capital expenditure, leading to an increase in free cash flow [1] - The FCF yield (TTM) of non-financial construction in the CSI 300 has risen to 4.5%, up from 4.1% at the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial increase in free cash flow yield [1] - The proportion of free cash flow of the entire A-share non-financial sector relative to total market value has steadily increased to 2.5%, and the proportion relative to total revenue has risen to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - In specific sectors, there is a notable improvement in free cash flow ratios in mid-to-high-end manufacturing, sectors benefiting from capacity clearance due to "anti-involution," and certain discretionary consumption industries [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cash flow ETFs (159399), which have outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - For investors without stock accounts, they can consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focused ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the Cash Flow ETF (159399), which has seen a net inflow of 26 million units, indicating investor interest in cash flow assets [1] - The FTSE Cash Flow Index, which the Cash Flow ETF tracks, has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The Cash Flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, and offers monthly dividend assessments [1] Group 2 - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focused ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) [1] - The Cash Flow ETF is fully managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., and there is no affiliation with the London Stock Exchange Group or its subsidiaries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new "National Nine Articles" policy emphasizes the importance of dividends for listed companies, leading to a transformation in the evaluation system of corporate profitability, where dividend capability becomes a key indicator of corporate governance and profitability [2] Group 1: Dividend Investment Strategy - The dividend investment strategy is gaining recognition among investors as an important path for long-term and value investing, with high dividend assets becoming a new consensus in the market [2] - From a medium to long-term perspective, dividend assets still represent a high cost-performance ratio in the current market [2] - Traditional dividend sectors such as banking, coal, and electricity are experiencing trading congestion due to significant prior gains and limited growth expectations, making stock prices more sensitive to marginal changes [2] Group 2: Quality Factor and Index Performance - The "dividend + quality" strategy focuses on high-quality, low-congestion sectors, with the effectiveness of quality factors becoming more pronounced as market risk appetite gradually recovers [2] - The CSI Dividend Quality Index shows a more balanced allocation, with a single industry weight cap of 20%, and the top three industries being food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles, contrasting with traditional dividend indices where banking stocks exceed 50% weight [2][4] - The CSI Dividend Quality Index has demonstrated superior profitability quality, with an average ROE of 4.13% at the end of Q1, significantly higher than the CSI Dividend Index (2.36%) and the low-volatility dividend index (2.40%) [5] Group 3: Performance Comparison - Despite the significant contribution of the banking sector to traditional dividend indices, the CSI Dividend Quality Index has outperformed major broad-based dividend indices even without banking stocks, showcasing stronger aggressiveness [5] - Over a longer period, the CSI Dividend Quality Index has significantly outperformed both the CSI Dividend Index and the low-volatility dividend index, validating the effectiveness of the quality factor [5] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI Dividend Quality Index at 4.68%, the CSI Dividend Index at 8.50%, and the low-volatility dividend index at 16.75% [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The CSI Dividend Index has long - term investment value, with a better Sharpe ratio and smaller maximum drawdown compared to other broad - based indices, and it shows both defensive and offensive characteristics [1] - Dividend assets still have medium - to - long - term allocation value due to policy promotion of corporate dividends and the low - valuation and high - dividend features of the CSI Dividend Index [22][29] - Morgan Dividend Select Fund has investment value, achieving excess returns since its establishment, and its sector selection can contribute to excess returns [1][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. CSI Dividend Index: Focus on High Dividend Yield, with Dual Advantages of Return and Safety Cushion - **Index Composition and Features**: Composed of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and good scale and liquidity in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it is an important representative index of the dividend strategy. The index uses dividend - yield weighting, with a relatively dispersed portfolio. As of July 31, 2025, the combined weight of the top ten stocks was 16.43% [6][7][9] - **Industry and Market - Value Distribution**: The industry distribution shows "high - dividend + traditional cycle" characteristics, with the top three weighted industries being banking, coal, and transportation. The market - value distribution of the 100 constituent stocks is wide, including large - cap leading companies and small - and medium - cap companies, presenting a combination feature of "stable returns from core leaders + elastic supplementation from small - and medium - cap stocks" [11] - **Long - and Medium - Term Performance**: In the nearly 15 - year back - testing period from January 1, 2011, to August 15, 2025, the annualized return of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index was 8.34%, the Sharpe ratio was 0.41, and the maximum drawdown was - 45.66%. It outperformed other indices in terms of Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown. It has defensive properties in falling markets and can also keep up with the market in some rising years [14][15] 2. Dividend Assets Still Have Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Value at the Current Time - **Policy - Driven Corporate Dividends**: Since the end of 2022, regulatory authorities have continuously strengthened policies related to listed - company cash dividends. The dividend - policy system has entered a stage of rigid implementation, increasing the attractiveness of high - dividend assets and creating a medium - to - long - term allocation window for high - dividend strategies [22][23] - **Low Valuation and High Dividend**: The current price - to - book ratio (PB_LF) of the CSI Dividend Index is still below the historical average, and the price - to - earnings ratio (PE_TTM) has rebounded to near the long - term average, showing a pattern of "low PB + stabilizing and rising PE". The current dividend yield remains high, with an average of 4.67% over the past ten years, which is significantly higher than the overall level of the A - share market [29][33] 3. Analysis of the Investment Value of Morgan Dividend Select - **Fund Overview**: It is an active quantitative product under Morgan Fund, established on July 30, 2024, with a performance benchmark of 90% of the CSI Dividend Index return + 10% of the after - tax bank current deposit interest rate. The fund aims to achieve excess returns through a quantitative stock - selection model [35][38] - **Performance**: As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative return of Morgan Dividend Select A since its establishment was 17.37%, and the excess return compared to the performance benchmark was 7.47%. The maximum drawdown was comparable to the benchmark. Through sector selection, it can contribute to excess returns [38][40][41] 4. Information on the Fund Manager and Fund Managers - **Fund Manager**: Morgan Asset Management is affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. It offers a diverse and complete fund product line. Its China Index and Quantitative Business provides diversified solutions for both Beta and Alpha investments [45] - **Investment Team**: The China Index and Quantitative Investment Team at Morgan Asset Management has an average of nearly 10 years of work experience. They are currently managing 6 active quantitative products, with a total scale of 1.869 billion yuan [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The high - dividend strategy's returns come from capital gains and dividend income, investing in mature - stage companies. It forms a positive cycle of "stable profits - continuous dividends - increased ROE", supporting its high win - rate [8]. - Market mainstream high - dividend indices include pure dividend indices, broad - based dividend enhancements, and Smart Beta dividend strategies, with significant differences in weighting methods, sampling constraints, number of components, and industry distributions [8]. - There are three key cognitive biases about the high - dividend strategy: it can outperform the market in various market conditions, not just in bear markets; interest rate movements have no significant overall impact; and the "ex - rights filling" market is not significant [8]. - The allocation of high - dividend assets should follow the principles of "long - termism, considering quality factors, avoiding crowded chips, and valuing expected dividends" [8]. - "Cash - cow" enterprises have abundant and stable cash flows, and their essence is related to business models, including resource allocation and profit - driving models [8]. - Different asset and liability structures form four cash - cow paradigms, and investing in cash - cow assets should combine business model paradigms and industrial cycles [8]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Table of Contents High - Dividend Strategy's Income Source and Nature - The high - dividend strategy's income comes from capital gains (due to stock price changes and value - restoration) and dividend income. Its essence is to invest in mature companies with limited investment returns, low revenue and net - profit growth, but strong profitability, high ROE, and good cash - flow protection [8][22][26]. - From 2014 to July 2025, the annualized returns of four typical dividend indices (CSI Dividend, Dividend Low - Volatility, 300 Dividend, and Dividend Value) reached 13.22%, 13.86%, 13.84%, and 15.72% respectively, with dividends contributing 71%, 68%, 71%, and 58% to these returns [30]. - High - dividend companies in the mature stage tend to pay dividends due to limited investment returns. Dividends are an important way to increase ROE, and high - dividend companies generally have strong cash - flow protection capabilities [33][37]. High - Dividend Strategy's Available Investment Tools - Mainstream high - dividend strategy indices include pure dividend indices, broad - based dividend enhancements, and Smart Beta dividend strategies. The products linked to the Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend indices have the largest scale [48]. - These indices differ in weighting methods (dividend - rate weighted, volatility weighted, comprehensive - score weighted, free - float market - value weighted), sampling methods (most require three - year continuous dividends and have dividend - payout ratio constraints), number of components (mostly 50 or 100), and other constraints (such as company attributes, ROE fluctuations) [58][61]. - In terms of industry distribution, CSI Dividend and Dividend Low - Volatility are relatively concentrated. The CSI Dividend Index has a bank weight of over 25%, and the Dividend Low - Volatility Index has a bank weight of up to 50% [64]. - Year - to - date, dividend indices have generally underperformed the Wind All - A Index. In the past 10 years, Smart Beta dividend strategies have been relatively dominant. High - dividend indices generally have a lower turnover rate relative to the All - A Index [67][81]. Three Cognitive Gaps in the High - Dividend Strategy - The high - dividend strategy is not just a "bear - market haven". It can outperform the market in bull markets, volatile markets, and during bull - bear transitions, such as in the 2006 - 2007 bull market, the 2008 and 2022 bear markets, and the 2015 - 2018 bull - bear transition [8][98]. - Interest rate movements have little impact on the high - dividend strategy. In the interest - rate up - cycle, inflation supports pro - cyclical assets; in the down - cycle, the dividend - income advantage is magnified, and absolute - return funds flow in [141]. - The "ex - rights filling" market is not significant. The probability of positive returns after ex - rights and ex - dividends is often less than 50% in the short - term, and the "ex - rights filling" market usually occurs after 180 trading days [151]. Allocation of High - Dividend Assets - The allocation of high - dividend assets should follow the principles of long - termism, considering quality factors, avoiding crowded chips, and valuing expected dividends. Long - term holding works well in a balanced market. Strategies can include selecting indices, constructing "high - dividend + low - turnover" portfolios, and focusing on expected dividend rates [8][178]. - Operationally, the best way to invest in dividend assets is Buy & Hold. Different investment methods for bank stocks (fixed - point buying, continuous定投, and inverted - triangle adding) have different returns, and the combination of dividend and micro - cap stocks in certain weights can achieve a better risk - return ratio [184]. From "High - Dividend" to "Cash - Cow" - "Cash - cow" enterprises have abundant and stable cash flows, and understanding their essence requires considering business models, including resource allocation (reflected in the balance sheet) and profit - driving models (reflected in the income statement) [8]. Cash - Cow Paradigms in Heavy - Asset and Light - Asset Industries - Four cash - cow paradigms are formed by different asset and liability structures: heavy - asset high - liability industries rely on asset scale and quality; heavy - asset low - liability industries rely on cost control; light - asset brand + channel - driven industries rely on brand premium and channel efficiency; light - asset product + channel - driven industries rely on product and channel efficiency [8]. How to Invest in Cash - Cow Assets - Investing in cash - cow assets should combine business model paradigms and industrial cycles. The best time to invest is when the industrial cycle shifts from the growth stage to the exit stage, and high - quality companies within the paradigms should be selected [8].