Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upper limit of the stock index is limited due to the decline in trading volume and the weak economic recovery in China. It is recommended to add positions after a pullback [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 7, the Wind All A index fluctuated after opening and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.03%. Over 60% of individual stocks rose. Among the index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.19% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.24%, indicating better performance of small and medium - cap stocks. The performance of index futures was generally weaker than that of the spot [6] 1.2 Outlook - Externally, the 90 - day suspension period is about to end, and attention should be paid to the impact of US news on the market. The expectation of a rate cut in July has faded, and the market expects the rate - cut process to resume in September. Domestically, the economy is still in a weak recovery state, expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year. The export data in the first half showed resilience, but there is high uncertainty in the second half, which may drag down the economy. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the manufacturing industry is facing intensified competition. Domestic economic growth requires further stimulation of domestic demand and accelerated implementation of infrastructure investment. Attention should also be paid to whether policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] 2. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All A index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][16][17] 3. Industry News - On the morning of July 7, Trump announced on his social account that the US would start sending tariff letters and/or agreements to other countries at 12:00 noon EST (00:00 Beijing time on July 8). Trump signed tariff notice letters to 12 countries on Friday, outlining different tariff rates for goods exported to the US. The new tariff rates may range from 10% to 20%, up to 60% - 70% [30]