2 0 2 5 . 1 0 . 2 1 胶版印刷纸周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 胶版印刷纸综述 2 胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 3 胶版印刷纸供需解析 4 胶版印刷纸成本利润 5 胶版印刷纸价格与价差 Part 1 胶版印刷纸综述 1.1 胶版印刷纸综述——供需库 | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年9月 | 2025年8月 | 2024年7月 | 环比 | 同比 | 累计同比 | 预估下周/月 (根据三方数据线性预估) | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/10 | 2024/10/17 | | | | | | | | 产量 国产 （周） 产能利用率 | 万吨 % | 20.30 53.00 | 19.00 49.40 | 19.30 58.30 | 1.30 3.60 | 1.00 -5.30 | -7.21% —— | 略增 略增 | | | 供给 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.37%，本周增幅环比收窄0.31个百分点。新一轮出版招标暂未放量，下 游社会面需求一般，纸企库存压力仍存。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在48.61%，环比下滑1.84个百分点，本周降幅环比扩大0.72个百分点。国庆节后部分停机 产线复工略晚，叠加价格持续下跌影响下，个别产线开工有所下滑。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 行情走势 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.26%，本周增幅环比扩大0.25个百分 点。行业整体开工水平回升，货源供应量增加，但市场需求跟进有限，纸厂库存进一步累积。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.54%，环比上升0.76个百分点，本周增幅环比扩 大0.10个百分点。周内山东个别产线开工回升，其余规模纸厂开工水平变化不大，行业开工负荷率小幅提升。 资料来源： 卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Report Author: Shi Yining from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper continued to decline under the pressure of复产 expectations. The main factors affecting the market price trend include the decline in the settlement price of some paper mills at the end of the month, the end of the printing work for textbooks and teaching materials for the autumn semester, cautious purchasing by dealers, and the general support of the cost side. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.04% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate this week expanded by 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous week. The scale production lines maintained normal operation, but the willingness of dealers to take delivery decreased, and downstream printing factories mostly consumed inventory, resulting in continuous accumulation of paper mill inventory [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper this week was 48.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, and the trend turned from decline to increase this week. Although the restarted production lines in Jiangsu were operating normally, some small and medium - sized production lines in Shandong and Henan had production cuts, limiting the recovery space of the industry's operating load [6]. Market Trend - The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on August 29 was 4825 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and 100 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased week - on - week [10]. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Data - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 163.6 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.7%. The sales volume was 160.0 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 347.8 thousand tons [24][29]. Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 12 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 62 thousand tons [35]. Inventory - From the monthly sample inventory data, both social inventory and enterprise inventory were mainly in the process of destocking [41]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, the output and capacity utilization rate of the double - offset paper industry were 163.6 thousand tons and 48.7% respectively this week. In terms of imports, the import volume in July was about 12 thousand tons, continuing the previous low - import volume [51]. - Demand: Domestically, the sales volume of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of exports, the export volume in July was about 62 thousand tons [51]. - Viewpoint: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 1.35% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.87 percentage points compared with last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.17 percentage points compared with last week. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pulp price corrected, and the paper profit slightly recovered. The market price of double - offset paper declined slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, and the market price will decline slightly. The current pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper are negative, but the paper mill's profit has slightly recovered with the pulp price correction [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper decreased by 0.90% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. Social orders changed little, and dealers were cautious in stocking up, with the paper mill's shipment rhythm being average [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 49.18%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points compared with last week. Most paper mills were operating normally, but some production lines in Jiangsu were shut down, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate [6]. - Asia Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. announced an increase of 150 yuan/ton in the order - taking price of broad - leaf pulp, only for long - term contract customers [6]. - Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the FOB price of bleached eucalyptus broad - leaf pulp "Goldfish" in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On August 8, the average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper was 4993.75 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day and last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of some double - offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased or remained unchanged. The pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper increased by 17 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. 3.3.2 Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2% [24]. 3.3.3 Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's sales volume was 168,400 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 343,600 tons [28]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [36]. 3.3.5 Inventory Situation - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [42]. 3.3.6 Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. 3.4 Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, the output this week was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons [51]. - **Demand**: Domestically, the sales volume this week was 168,400 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons [51]. - **Price**: The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.82 percentage points. The average price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.39% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.80 percentage points [51]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, dealers will sell goods flexibly, and the market price will decline slightly [51]. - **Valuation**: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross margin of double - offset paper is about - 36 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross margin is about - 205 yuan/ton [51]. - **Strategy**: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四下降2.14%，本周降幅环比收窄0.22个百分 点。周内出版订单继续提货，但个别地区提货进度已接近尾声，纸厂出货较前期有所减缓，叠加社会面订单疲软，市场整体去库节奏减慢。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在50.13%，较上周上升0.47个百分点，较上周涨幅收 02 行情走势 资料来源：同花顺iFinD，卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研究 日期 07-25 70g高 ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 胶版印刷纸：震荡偏弱 高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/4/30 | 环 比 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货市场 | 山东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 5050 | 5050 | | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5400 | 5400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 4950 | 4950 | 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 5100 | 5100 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税收入 | 5281 | 5281 | 0 | | | | 含税成本 | 5079 | 5124 | -45 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | 203 | 158 | 45 | | | 税 后 | 不含 ...