2025 年 12 月 08 日 胶版印刷纸：观望为主 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/12/4 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | | | | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4738 | 4738 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5212 | 5207 | 5 | | | | 税前毛利 | -474 | -469 | -5 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and other aspects of offset printing paper. It shows that the production of offset printing paper is expected to increase slightly next week, with stable demand and inventory likely to accumulate. The cost of offset printing paper has risen due to raw material price increases, and production profit is expected to decline. If the price increase is successfully implemented, it may offset the cost increase. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Domestic production in the week of 2025/11/7 was 20.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.20 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 53.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The monthly import volume was 1.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 million tons. The weekly apparent demand was 19.60 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 million tons. The monthly export volume was 5.60 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million tons. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84 million tons. Enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total spot inventory all increased, with the total inventory reaching 189.50 million tons. It is expected that the production of the double - offset paper industry will continue to increase, about 21.0 million tons next week, and the demand will remain stable, with inventory likely to accumulate [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period, but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation. The market self - pick - up prices also remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed an upward trend compared to the previous period, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices remained stable, and the futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts was expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands was expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material costs of major pulp types decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The total production cost decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot price is stable, and transactions are based on rigid demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly supply, demand, inventory, and other data of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume, production, total supply, domestic demand, total demand, etc. showed different trends compared to 2024. For example, in January 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased by 18.05% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 10.87% year - on - year [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons are yet to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation is 120 - 140 million tons. Major companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, and Sun Paper have new production capacity plans or capacity resumption plans [18]. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost - Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of major pulp types such as Ural Needle, Moon, and Goldfish decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation [8]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread**: Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season. The futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts is expected to remain stable [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price of offset printing paper is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. Chenming's resumption of production may lead to an oversupply of supply, with a weak fundamental operation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and the cost reduction space is limited, but the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner [8][12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In the week of October 17, 2025, Jiulong Paper's Beihai base PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line was successfully put into operation. The production and start - up of double - offset paper increased. The monthly import volume decreased by 0.79 tons compared with the previous month, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 1.7 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 0.08 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 2.89 tons. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate. For example, the enterprise inventory increased by 1.5 tons [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of various brands decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, and the market self - pick - up prices of some brands remained unchanged. The disk price of OP2601 decreased by 24, and OP2603 decreased by 18. It is expected that the double - offset paper price will fluctuate or slightly decrease, and the disk will operate weakly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The disk spread between January and March is expected to remain stable, and the basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost reduction space is limited. However, the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For example, the profit of self - used pulp decreased by 92.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. The disk is expected to operate weakly, and it is recommended to use a light - position short - put strategy or a short - call strategy when it rebounds, while paying attention to risk prevention and control [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the cumulative import volume, production volume, total supply, total demand, and inventory of offset printing paper all showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain growth rate, while the production volume and total supply decreased year - on - year, and the total demand also decreased slightly. The inventory increased year - on - year in most months [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many companies have new production capacity put into operation or resume production. For example, Jiulong Paper has multiple production lines put into operation in different locations, and Chenming is expected to resume production of about 900,000 tons of double - offset paper capacity. From 2025 - 2026, some projects are planned to be put into operation, but some are suspended [18]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost will remain stable or slightly increase [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, and the profit of low - cost and high - cost production is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of various brands of offset printing paper decreased compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spot - Futures Basis and OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the inter - month spread between January and March is expected to remain stable [10].

Report Title - Guotai Junan Futures' Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper [1] Report Date - October 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market supply pressure is high, with paper mills' inventories continuing to accumulate, and downstream demand from printers is weak. There are no clear signs of improvement in the fundamentals. The key lies in the transaction situation of textbook publishing tenders. It is recommended to focus on bilateral trading opportunities between 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is mainly volatile, with interval operations as the main strategy [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of this Thursday, the inventory days of duplex paper increased by 1.37% compared to last Thursday, and the week-on-week increase narrowed by 0.31 percentage points. The new round of publishing tenders has not yet increased in volume, downstream social demand is average, and paper mills still face inventory pressure [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of duplex paper was 48.61%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.84 percentage points, and the week-on-week decline widened by 0.72 percentage points. After the National Day, the resumption of some shutdown production lines was slightly delayed, and under the influence of continuous price declines, the operation of individual production lines decreased [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of mainstream market 70g high-white duplex paper on October 17 was 4440 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a week-on-week and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g duplex paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged week-on-week. In terms of cost and profit, before tax, the pre-tax gross profit decreased by 4 yuan; after tax, the after-tax gross profit decreased by 3 yuan. In the futures market, the closing prices of OP2601 and OP2603 decreased, and the 1 - 3 spread decreased by 6 yuan. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets increased by 24 yuan [10]. Supply and Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic duplex paper industry capacity was approximately 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was approximately 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Production and Operation - This week, the domestic duplex paper industry output was 166.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.6% [22]. Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic duplex paper industry sales volume was 161.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 369.0 thousand tons [29]. Import and Export - In August, the domestic duplex paper import volume was approximately 18.9 thousand tons, and the export volume was approximately 56.8 thousand tons [37]. Inventory Situation - In September, both social and enterprise inventories of duplex paper continued to accumulate [43]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, this week's output was 166.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.6%. In August, the import volume was approximately 18.9 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - **Demand**: Domestically, this week's sales volume was 161.1 thousand tons. In August, the export volume was approximately 56.8 thousand tons [53]. - **Viewpoint**: The market remained volatile around 4200 yuan/ton this week. On Friday, the market decreased with increasing positions, which was considered a capital-driven behavior. Fundamentally, there are no clear signs of improvement, and the key lies in the textbook publishing tenders. From a trading perspective, the value of short - selling is not high, and attention should be paid to bilateral trading opportunities between 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton [53]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. Enterprises still have production profits, but they are close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is mainly volatile, and interval operations are recommended [53].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Shi Yining - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022533 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper fluctuated little and mainly moved within a range. The spot market supply and demand may remain weak due to the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and weak overall demand. However, the current negative factors have been fully priced in the market, and there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement in the supply - demand situation, mainly from the concentrated release of publishing tender orders and the improvement of the overall sentiment in the commodity market. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. The price trend is mainly volatile, and investors should pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic double - offset paper increased by 1.26% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.25 percentage points. The overall industry start - up level rebounded, the supply of goods increased, but the market demand was limited, and the paper mill inventory further accumulated. - This week, the operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 51.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.10 percentage points. The operation of an individual production line in Shandong recovered, while the operation levels of other large - scale paper mills changed little, and the industry operating load rate increased slightly [6]. Market Trend - The daily average price of mainstream double - offset paper (70g high - white) in the market had a week - on - week ratio of 0 and a year - on - year ratio of - 12.5%. - In the spot market, the prices of most 70g double - offset papers in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged week - on - week, except for 70g Chenming Yunbao and 70g Huaxia Taiyang in the Guangdong market, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of double - offset paper decreased week - on - week. In the futures market, the prices of OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 price spread decreased. The basis of some varieties decreased [12][13]. Supply - Demand Data Supply - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's production capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57%. - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 173,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 51.5%. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 18,900 tons, maintaining a low level [22][28][38]. Demand - This week, the domestic double - offset paper sales volume was 168,600 tons. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper export volume was about 56,800 tons [33][38]. Inventory - In August, the social inventory and enterprise inventory of double - offset paper showed a slight accumulation. This week, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 363,500 tons [33][44]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production this week was 173,200 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 51.5%, and the import volume in August was about 18,900 tons, remaining at a low level. - Demand: This week's domestic sales volume was 168,600 tons, and the export volume in August was about 56,800 tons. - View: The futures market was mainly in a volatile state last week, closing at 4,230 yuan/ton on Friday night. The spot market had little fluctuation, and the trading volume in the futures market was limited. In the future, the supply - demand in the spot market may remain weak, but there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. - Valuation: According to the current spot price, the current valuation does not provide delivery profit, and the overall valuation is low. The current futures price is close to the production cost of some enterprises with a low degree of integration. - Strategy: The price trend is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Report Author: Shi Yining from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper continued to decline under the pressure of复产 expectations. The main factors affecting the market price trend include the decline in the settlement price of some paper mills at the end of the month, the end of the printing work for textbooks and teaching materials for the autumn semester, cautious purchasing by dealers, and the general support of the cost side. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.04% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate this week expanded by 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous week. The scale production lines maintained normal operation, but the willingness of dealers to take delivery decreased, and downstream printing factories mostly consumed inventory, resulting in continuous accumulation of paper mill inventory [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper this week was 48.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, and the trend turned from decline to increase this week. Although the restarted production lines in Jiangsu were operating normally, some small and medium - sized production lines in Shandong and Henan had production cuts, limiting the recovery space of the industry's operating load [6]. Market Trend - The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on August 29 was 4825 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and 100 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased week - on - week [10]. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Data - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 163.6 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.7%. The sales volume was 160.0 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 347.8 thousand tons [24][29]. Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 12 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 62 thousand tons [35]. Inventory - From the monthly sample inventory data, both social inventory and enterprise inventory were mainly in the process of destocking [41]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, the output and capacity utilization rate of the double - offset paper industry were 163.6 thousand tons and 48.7% respectively this week. In terms of imports, the import volume in July was about 12 thousand tons, continuing the previous low - import volume [51]. - Demand: Domestically, the sales volume of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of exports, the export volume in July was about 62 thousand tons [51]. - Viewpoint: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 1.35% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.87 percentage points compared with last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.17 percentage points compared with last week. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pulp price corrected, and the paper profit slightly recovered. The market price of double - offset paper declined slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, and the market price will decline slightly. The current pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper are negative, but the paper mill's profit has slightly recovered with the pulp price correction [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper decreased by 0.90% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. Social orders changed little, and dealers were cautious in stocking up, with the paper mill's shipment rhythm being average [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 49.18%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points compared with last week. Most paper mills were operating normally, but some production lines in Jiangsu were shut down, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate [6]. - Asia Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. announced an increase of 150 yuan/ton in the order - taking price of broad - leaf pulp, only for long - term contract customers [6]. - Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the FOB price of bleached eucalyptus broad - leaf pulp "Goldfish" in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On August 8, the average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper was 4993.75 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day and last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of some double - offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased or remained unchanged. The pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper increased by 17 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. 3.3.2 Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2% [24]. 3.3.3 Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's sales volume was 168,400 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 343,600 tons [28]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [36]. 3.3.5 Inventory Situation - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [42]. 3.3.6 Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. 3.4 Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, the output this week was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons [51]. - **Demand**: Domestically, the sales volume this week was 168,400 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons [51]. - **Price**: The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.82 percentage points. The average price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.39% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.80 percentage points [51]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, dealers will sell goods flexibly, and the market price will decline slightly [51]. - **Valuation**: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross margin of double - offset paper is about - 36 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross margin is about - 205 yuan/ton [51]. - **Strategy**: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the macro - level positive factors have limited impact on the spot market, and the paper price is weak. In the future, due to the increase in market supply pressure and the weakening of market support, the price of offset printing paper is expected to decline, and the paper mill's profit will be adjusted [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic offset printing paper this Thursday decreased by 2.14% compared to last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.22 percentage points week - on - week. The overall inventory reduction rhythm of the market slowed down [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic offset printing paper this week was 50.13%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.94 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On July 25, the average price of 70g high - white offset printing paper was 5012.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 62.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - week decrease of 87.5 yuan/ton [9]. - The prices of various types of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets generally decreased, and the pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Supply - In 2024, the domestic offset printing paper industry's production capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%; the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry's output was 168,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1% [24]. - In June, the domestic offset printing paper import volume was about 15,000 tons [37]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the domestic offset printing paper sales volume was 176,100 tons [29]. - In June, the domestic offset printing paper export volume was about 66,000 tons [37]. - In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, the enterprise inventory of domestic offset printing paper was 351,300 tons [29]. - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [43]. 3.4 Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production is stable, and the import volume remains low. With the increase in the operating rate of new production capacity in South China, the market supply pressure will increase [51]. - Demand: The demand for publication orders will decrease next week, the rigid demand support in the market will weaken, and the social demand is difficult to improve [51]. - Price: Due to the contradiction between supply and demand, there is still room for negotiation in the market transaction next week, and the paper price is expected to decline [51]. - Valuation: According to the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross profit of offset printing paper is about - 26 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit is about - 196 yuan/ton, and the paper mill's profit has been adjusted [51]. - Strategy: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the offset printing paper industry is "volatile and weak" [1] Core View - The double - offset paper trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish view on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the Shandong spot market on May 6, 2025, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained unchanged from April 30, 2025. Similarly, in the Guangdong spot market, the prices of relevant paper types also remained stable [2] - In terms of cost - profit, the pre - tax cost decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the pre - tax gross profit increased by 45 yuan/ton. The after - tax cost decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit increased by 40 yuan/ton [2] Industry News - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction prices of high - white double - offset paper and some natural - white double - offset paper remained flat compared to the previous workday. Paper mills' transactions were flexible, dealers were cautious, and downstream inventory - building willingness was weak [3] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction prices of high - white and natural - white double - offset paper were stable. During the holiday, market transactions were light, dealers mainly sold at stable prices, and the overall procurement demand of downstream printing factories was average [3]