Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In March, the thermal coal market showed a stronger-than-expected performance during the off - season, with a slight upward shift in the price center [1][49] - The current thermal coal market is driven by three factors: supply recovery with some foreign trade shifting to the domestic market due to high foreign coal prices; demand with certain resilience as power plant daily consumption remained high during the off - season; and non - power demand (such as chemical and metallurgical industries) recovering due to geopolitical impacts [1][49] - In April, coal prices are expected to enter a relatively strong and volatile state. The market will be in a window of multi - factor game, with no prominent driving force but relatively strong, limited upward momentum for a single - side increase, and a low possibility of a sharp decline [2][49][52] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - **1.1 Price Review**: In March, the domestic thermal coal spot market showed a strong performance during the off - season. International thermal coal market was also strong due to geopolitical conflicts. The "strong - outside, weak - inside" price pattern weakened the price advantage of imported coal and supported domestic coal prices [6] 2. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - influencing Factors 2.1 Supply Side - **2.1.1 Origin Situation**: In March, the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. Production in Shaanxi increased, in Shanxi was relatively slow, and in Inner Mongolia was stable with a slight increase [11] - **2.1.2 Import Volume**: In March, the imported thermal coal market was in a pattern of "weak supply and demand, price inversion". Import volume decreased due to factors such as the Indonesian Ramadan, rainy season, and high international freight costs [17] 2.2 Intermediate - link Transportation - **2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway**: In February 2026, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 28.04 million tons, with a cumulative volume of 59.32 million tons [21] - **2.2.2 Bohai - Rim Ports**: In March 2026, the inbound and outbound volumes of the seven major ports in the Bohai - Rim region increased compared with the same period last year [24] - **2.2.3 Shipping Situation**: The dry bulk shipping market showed an upward - trending and volatile state. The domestic coastal freight rate increased, while the international shipping route was affected by the Middle East situation [29] 2.3 Demand Side - **2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption**: Total social electricity consumption continued to grow at a high rate, with the tertiary industry showing the most prominent growth [35] - **2.3.2 Power Generation Structure**: The domestic power generation structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of clean energy increasing. The growth rate of new - energy power generation slowed down marginally [43] - **2.3.3 Non - power Industry Coal Demand**: The main marginal increase in non - power industry coal demand was in the coal - chemical sector, and non - power demand increased due to geopolitical conflicts and increased demand in the coal - chemical industry [45] 3. Chapter 3: Conclusion - In March, the thermal coal market showed a stronger - than - expected performance during the off - season, and the price center shifted slightly upward. The market was driven by supply, demand, and non - power demand factors [49] - In April, coal prices are expected to enter a relatively strong and volatile state. The market will be in a multi - factor game window, with limited upward and downward momentum. Attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil price trends, Indonesian coal export policies, non - power demand, and domestic power plant replenishment rhythms [2][49][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a price increase, with northern port coal prices reaching a new high of 761 RMB/ton as of March 27, 2026, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 26 RMB/ton [4][14] - The supply side shows a slight increase in domestic production, while the demand side remains robust, particularly in non-electric sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [14][39] - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in coal prices driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of March 27, 2026, northern port thermal coal prices are at 761 RMB/ton, up 26 RMB/ton week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 2.04 percentage points week-on-week, primarily due to the resumption of previously halted mines [14][23] - Daily consumption by six major power plants increased by 73,000 tons week-on-week, indicating strong demand despite the traditional off-season [14][24] - The inventory at six major power plants decreased by 391,000 tons to 12.75 million tons, reflecting a significant reduction compared to the same period last year [14][33] 2. Coking Coal - The utilization rate of sample coking coal mines decreased by 1.16 percentage points to 86.0%, mainly due to production constraints in some mines [39][40] - The average price of main coking coal at the port increased to 1,750 RMB/ton, up 130 RMB/ton week-on-week [41] - Downstream demand remains strong, with iron and steel production increasing by 29,500 tons week-on-week [39][62] 3. Coke - The report notes that major coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases, with a rise of 50-55 RMB/ton set to take effect on April 1, 2026 [62] - The production rate of independent coking plants increased to 73.72%, reflecting a positive trend in production efficiency [68] - The average profit per ton of coke decreased to 21 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, indicating pressure on profitability [65] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal has risen, with the market experiencing a tightening of supply due to production conditions [82] - The price of small block anthracite from Yangquan reached 930 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [82] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a focus on their value attributes [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry's production has a seasonal rebound this week, but the increase is slow. The iron - water output has increased by 30,000 tons, and the output of the five major steel products remains stable. The apparent demand has increased more than the output, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the steel mills' production cuts in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is normal, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, it lacks upward driving force, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the raw material end. Recently, the strengthening of crude oil may affect the trend of ferrous metals. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will fluctuate around 3,150 and 3,200 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract rose slightly yesterday, mainly affected by news. Geopolitical games, the undetermined negotiation between BHP and Chinese mines, and the resumption of iron - water production are the focus of future iron ore trading. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased slightly this period, the Australian shipment volume continues to rise, and BHP's shipment has dropped to a historical low. A super typhoon in Australia may cause a short - term decline in iron ore shipments, but subsequent replenishment is possible. On the demand side, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of inventory, both steel mill and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is expected that the port inventory will either decrease slightly or remain unchanged. In the short term, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke futures showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increase after the Spring Festival on March 23, which is expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and the increase in chemical production prices makes up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, the coking start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, steel prices rebounded at a low level, and the replenishment demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short - term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,650 - 1,850, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke. - The coking coal futures also showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have turned into a general increase pattern, and Mongolian coal quotes fluctuate with futures. After the festival, the replenishment demand is gradually warming up. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal output is increasing; in terms of imported coal, the port inventory is slowing down and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, coking production increased synchronously, and with the cost increase, coke prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, washing plants, coking enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory shows a change of downstream active replenishment. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,150 - 1,350, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly recently. Geopolitical conflicts, coal prices, and supply growth rate jointly affect ferrosilicon prices. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production has decreased slightly, the start - up rate in production areas has also declined, and the resumption of production is lower than expected. The manufacturer's profit has improved. In terms of steel demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily output of magnesium alloy is at a relatively high level and has increased. The ferrosilicon export has weakened, but the export profit has improved. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke may rise. In the short term, due to the complex international geopolitical situation, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is lower than expected, and the supply - demand is still in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to long ferrosilicon and short ferromanganese for price difference repair. - The main ferromanganese contract fluctuated widely. Hebei Iron and Steel Group released a new round of steel procurement, and CML announced the May quotation to China. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply continues to decline, the start - up rate has declined for several consecutive weeks, and the joint production reduction of manufacturers may be in progress. The production pressure in the south is still relatively large, and the electricity price subsidy in Yunnan has led to some resumption of production; there will be new production capacity of ferromanganese plants in the second quarter. In terms of demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of cost, the import of manganese ore is in a tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of downstream ferromanganese production and increased shipping costs boost prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5,700 - 6,800 [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3,132 yuan/ton, 3,162 yuan/ton, and 3,184 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 4 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, and - 2 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils are 3,313 yuan/ton, 3,322 yuan/ton, and 3,321 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 9 yuan/ton, and - 4 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3,730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu is 3,262 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar is 3,174 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and 199 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 21 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and 49 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water output is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The output of the five major steel products is 839.6 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value. The rebar output is 197.9 tons, a decrease of 5.5 tons or - 2.7% compared with the previous value, including an electric - arc furnace output of 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or - 4.3%, and a converter output of 165.2 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.6 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons or 1.8% compared with the previous value. - The inventory of the five major steel products is 1,897.8 tons, a decrease of 48.4 tons or - 2.5% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 861.9 tons, a decrease of 27.5 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 453.3 tons, a decrease of 8.0 tons or - 1.7% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.9 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 4.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 888.0 tons, an increase of 19.5 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 225.4 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 8.3% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 927.5 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 847.4 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 7.6 yuan/ton, 7.7 yuan/ton, 7.6 yuan/ton, and 7.6 yuan/ton, and increases of 0.8%, 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 110.5 yuan/ton, 29.8 yuan/ton, 30.4 yuan/ton, and 67.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 2.9 yuan/ton, - 2.8 yuan/ton, - 2.9 yuan/ton, and - 2.9 yuan/ton, and changes of - 2.5%, - 8.6%, - 8.8%, and - 4.1% respectively. The 5 - 9 spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The 9 - 1 spread is 20.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 2.4% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2,271.6 tons, an increase of 56.6 tons or 2.6% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3,144.3 tons, an increase of 95.5 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The national monthly import volume is 9,763.8 tons, a decrease of 2,200.9 tons or - 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 321.0 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,072.2 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,817.7 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17,098.40 tons, a decrease of 89.1 tons or - 0.5% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 9,034.1 tons, an increase of 105.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, an increase of 2.0 days or 9.5% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,681 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port (warehouse - receipt) is 1,767 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The 05 contract of coke is 1,761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or - 0.8%. The 09 contract of coke is 1,846 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or - 1.0%. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of medium - sulfur primary coking coal in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1,333 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 05 contract of coking coal is 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or - 0.9%. The 09 contract of coking coal is 1,369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or - 0.7%. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 552 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 11.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 0.8% compared with the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.3 tons, unchanged. The iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 231.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 997.8 tons, an increase of 16.3 tons or 1.7% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 90.1 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or - 4.4% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 691.7 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons or 0.5% compared with the previous value. The port inventory is 216.1 tons, an increase of 17.0 tons or 8.5% compared with the previous value. - The coking coal inventory of Fenxi Coal Mine's cleaned coal is 97.2 tons, a decrease of 11.0 tons or - 10.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1,047.5 tons, an increase of 42.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.4 tons, an increase of 8.5

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The short - term contradiction in the steel industry is not significant, but it lacks upward driving force on its own. The upward driving force mainly comes from the raw material end. The steel price has risen to the upper edge of the range, with rebar and hot - rolled coil rising to 3131 yuan and 3311 yuan respectively. It is necessary to pay attention to the conduction of crude oil and natural gas to coking coal prices, which affects the price fluctuations of ferrous metals. The year - on - year comparison shows that due to the environmental protection production restrictions in March, the production from January to March decreased year - on - year, and the supply and demand were basically balanced, with the demand for hot - rolled coil better than that for rebar. The raw materials support the steel price [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract fluctuated at a high level in the short term. The geopolitical conflict game intensified, the negotiation between BHP and Chinese mines, and the resumption of iron - making production are the trading focuses. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, the Australian shipment volume continued to rise, and the BHP shipment volume decreased to a historically low level. The demand side shows that the iron - making production increased significantly, but the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the domestic demand is relatively weak. The inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price has a bottom - building and rebound expectation. The supply side shows that the coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the coking production starts to increase after the two sessions. The demand side shows that the iron - making production increases, and the restocking demand will gradually recover. The inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. For coking coal, the geopolitical conflict supports the coking coal price, and the spot reaction lags. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at a low price, with the range of 1700 - 1900, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. It is also recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at a low price, with the range of 1150 - 1350 [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production increased slightly, the profit of manufacturers improved, and the supply is expected to continue to grow. The iron - making demand increased significantly, and the non - steel demand is also at a relatively high level. The cost is supported by coal prices. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, or try to long ferrosilicon and short ferromanganese to repair the price difference. For ferromanganese, the supply decreased slightly, the manganese ore spot is strong, and the cost is pushed up. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6800 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3230 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3132 yuan/ton, 3162 yuan/ton, and 3184 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3313 yuan/ton, 3322 yuan/ton, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3264 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3184 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 61 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production is 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. The production of five major steel products is 839.8 tons, a 2.3% increase. The rebar production is 203.3 tons, a 4.1% increase. The inventory of five major steel products is 1946.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 461.3 tons, a 2.2% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.6 tons, an 8.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an 8.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar is 208.1 tons, a 17.7% increase. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 310.5 tons, a 5.1% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara powder, PB powder, Brazilian mixed powder, and Jinbuba powder are 861.6 yuan/ton, 854.5 yuan/ton, 858.2 yuan/ton, and 891.6 yuan/ton respectively. The 05 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore is 113.3 yuan/ton, 32.6 yuan/ton, 33.3 yuan/ton, and 69.9 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread is 29.0 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread is 20.5 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume is 2271.6 tons, a 2.6% increase. The global shipment volume is 3144.3 tons, a 3.1% increase. The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, an 18.4% decrease [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume is 321.0 tons, a 1.0% increase. The national monthly pig - iron production is 0.0 tons, a 100.0% decrease. The national monthly crude - steel production is 0.0 tons, a 100.0% decrease [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory is 17098.40 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9034.1 tons, a 1.2% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills is 21.0 days, an 8.7% decrease [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1756 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of coke is 1776 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract price is 1865 yuan/ton. The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1330 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1333 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of coking coal is 1241 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract price is 1378 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 64.2 tons, a 0.5% increase. The daily average production of 247 steel mills is 47.3 tons, a 0.7% increase. The raw - coal production is 6088 tons, a 0.8% increase [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 64.2 tons, a 0.5% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 981.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 94.2 tons, a 6.2% decrease. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 688.2 tons, a 0.1% increase. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1005.0 tons, a 3.7% increase. The coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.9 tons, a 0.5% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract is 6088.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract is 6492.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu are 5630.0 yuan/ton, 5600.0 yuan/ton, 5600.0 yuan/ton, and 5600.0 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Ningxia, and Guizhou are 6150.0 yuan/ton, 6200.0 yuan/ton, 6050.0 yuan/ton, and 6150.0 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 6336.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 39.9 yuan/ton. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5494.0 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 136.0 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production is 10.4 tons, a 7.2% increase. The ferromanganese production decreased slightly, and the manganese - ore shipment volume is 94.7 tons, a 54.5% increase [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand is 1.9 tons, a 2.94% increase. The iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.2 tons, a 3.14% increase [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises is 5.9 tons, a 2.9% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 38.5 tons, a 2.4% increase [6].

1. Investment Rating of the Report - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The black metal market is in a high - level volatile trend. Affected by the decline in the futures market, the basis has strengthened. The supply - demand of the steel industry is basically balanced with few contradictions. Currently, both supply and demand are increasing, and last week's apparent demand increased more than production. The industry is in the seasonal de - stocking phase. Later, the height of the recovery of apparent demand needs to be monitored. Raw materials support steel prices due to iron ore supply disruptions and the energy substitution logic of coking coal. Steel prices have risen to the upper limit of the range, and the short - term industry contradictions are not significant. The steel price center may rise due to raw material promotion, but attention should be paid to the interference of natural gas fluctuations on black metals including coking coal [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore main contract maintained a high - level volatile trend. Affected by a super typhoon, Rio Tinto's Dampier Port was closed until Saturday, and short - term Australian shipments are expected to decline but will be replenished later. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week, with Australian shipments continuing to rise and BHP's shipments falling to a historical low. The impact of the Australian typhoon on shipments needs to be monitored. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week as previously - overhauled steel mills resumed production. Currently, terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. Attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of hot metal production recovery. In terms of inventory, steel mill inventories increased week - on - week, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected that port inventories will either slightly decrease or remain flat as arrivals return to a low level and resumption of production drives an increase in port clearance. In the short term, the iron ore main contract will operate in a high - level volatile range [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. Spot auction prices in Shanxi turned to more increases than decreases, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, restocking demand gradually recovered. The US - Iran conflict caused high - level fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines gradually resumed production, and daily coal production increased. Imported coal port inventories accumulated at a slower pace and remained at a relatively high level after customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, and coking production also increased. With cost increases, coking coal prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coking enterprises, and ports accumulated inventory, while coal mines, steel mills, and ports reduced inventory, with overall inventory starting to accumulate downstream. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a high - level decline. Mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which are expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases. Port prices fluctuate with the futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking production prices have increased significantly to make up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, coking plant operations began to increase. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, steel prices rebounded from a low level, and restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills and ports accumulated inventory, with overall inventory slightly increasing at a medium level. The short - term supply - demand of coke is basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract in the range of 1700 - 1900 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly, with the price rising on the futures market and then falling back. Geopolitical conflicts affected coal price expectations, and market sentiment was volatile. A ferrosilicon plant in Ningxia started a 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. This week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly week - on - week, with production increasing in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. Due to recent price increases, manufacturers' profits have improved, and it is expected that supply will continue to grow. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. Non - steel demand, such as magnesium ingot daily production, was at a relatively high level and increased. Ferrosilicon exports weakened, but export profits improved. Lanthanum prices remained stable, but rising coal prices may drive up lanthanum prices, providing cost support for ferrosilicon. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and costs are affected by coal. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm and cost changes. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6800, and it is recommended to wait and see, or try to go long on ferrosilicon and short on ferromanganese for price repair [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese main contract rose and then fell, closing slightly lower. The Global Manganese Industry Association announced energy - saving and emission - reduction measures, with a total reduction of 30%. Spot manganese - silicon sentiment was high, with no low - price sales in the market, and increased participation in hedging on the futures market. Manganese ore spot was strong. Last week, ferromanganese supply decreased slightly week - on - week, with consecutive weeks of declining operating rates. Inner Mongolia's production decreased slightly, and southern production pressure remained high. Yunnan's power price subsidies led to some resumption of production. New production capacity will be launched in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in ferromanganese supply. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. In terms of cost, some manganese ore port supplies were in tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of manganese - silicon production and rising shipping costs pushed up prices. Coking coal price increases also drove up chemical coke prices, pushing up ferromanganese costs. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferromanganese both increase, and costs are pushed up. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3145 yuan/ton, 3173 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3324 yuan/ton, 3331 yuan/ton, and 3333 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price was 2990 yuan/ton, and slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel cost was 3264 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; Jiangsu converter threaded steel cost was 3184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China hot - rolled coil profit was - 32 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; East China threaded steel profit was - 12 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China threaded steel profit was - 52 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; South China threaded steel profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value [1]. - **Five - Variety Steel Production**: It was 839.8 tons, up 18.9 tons or 2.3% from the previous value. Threaded steel production was 203.3 tons, up 8.0 tons or 4.1%, including an increase of 5.1 tons or 17.6% in electric - furnace production and 2.9 tons or 1.8% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production was 300.2 tons, up 4.9 tons or 1.7% [1]. Inventory - **Five - Variety Steel Inventory**: It was 1946.2 tons, down 28.7 tons or - 1.5% from the previous value. Threaded steel inventory was 889.4 tons, down 4.8 tons or - 0.5%; hot - rolled coil inventory was 461.3 tons, down 10.3 tons or - 2.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It was 9.4 tons, down 1.6 tons or - 14.9% from the previous value. The apparent demand for five - variety steel was 868.5 tons, up 70.4 tons or 8.8%; the apparent demand for threaded steel was 208.1 tons, up 31.3 tons or 17.7%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 310.5 tons, up 15.2 tons or 5.1% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines was 1956 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines was 854.5 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Brazilian mixed fines was 858.2 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Jinbuba fines was 891.6 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - **05 Contract Basis**: The 05 contract basis of Karara fines was 111.1 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton or - 2.5%; the 05 contract basis of PB fines was 30.5 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 11.3%; the 05 contract basis of Brazilian mixed fines was 34.2 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 10.3%; the 05 contract basis of Jinbuba fines was 67.6 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 5.5% [4]. - **5 - 9 Spread**: It was 33.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.1%; the 9 - 1 spread was 24.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Rizhao Port Spot Prices**: The price of Karara fines was 960.0 yuan/wet ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the price of PB fines was 797.0 yuan/wet ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Brazilian mixed fines was 835.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Jinbuba fines was 743.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - **Singapore Exchange 62% Fe Swap**: It was 106.7 dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. Supply - **45 - Port Arrivals (Weekly)**: It was 2271.6 tons, up 56.6 tons or 2.6% from the previous value. Global shipments (weekly) were 3144.3 tons, up 3048.8 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The national monthly import volume was 9763.8 tons, down 2200.9 tons or - 18.4% from the previous value [4]. Demand - **247 Steel Mills' Daily Average Hot Metal (Weekly)**: It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The 45 - port daily average port clearance (weekly) was 321.0 tons, up 3.1 tons or 1.0% from the previous value. The national monthly pig iron production was 6072.2 tons, down 6072.2 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production was 0.0 tons, down 6817.7 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - **45 - Port Inventory**: It was 17187.52 tons, down 89.1 tons or - 0.5% from the previous value. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory (weekly) was 9034.1 tons, up 105.0 tons or 1.2% from the previous value. The 64 steel mills' inventory available days (weekly) were 21.0 days, down 2.0 days or - 8.7% from the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1681 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1767 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Coke Futures Contracts**: The 05 contract was 1798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton or - 2.7%; the 09 contract was 1874 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or - 2.2% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis was - 31 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 107 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Profit**: The Steel Union's coking profit (weekly) was 0 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) was 1330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 2.3%; the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) was 1337 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.7% [6]. - **Coking Coal Futures Contracts**: The 05 contract was 1250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 3.1%; the 09 contract was 1372 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or - 0.5% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis was 88 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the JM05 - JM09 spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [6]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: It was 495 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 2.7% [6]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.2 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.5% from the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.3 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.7% from the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 6088 tons, up 7.0 tons or 0.8% from the previous value; the clean coal production was 448.5 tons, up 2.6 tons or 0.64% from the previous value [6]. Demand - **Hot Metal Production (Weekly)**: The 247 steel mills' hot metal

Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has escalated, impacting energy facilities in Gulf countries, with significant disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, averaging only about 2 cargo ships and less than 0.5 oil tankers per day[2][6] - Global central banks have collectively adopted a hawkish stance, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining its target federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and delaying the next rate cut expectation to September 2027[5][9] - The market anticipates that if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, US CPI could rise to between 3.46% and 3.92%[9][19] Group 2: Market Performance - Asian markets showed some recovery, with South Korea up 5.4%, Singapore up 2.2%, and Malaysia up 1.3%, driven by AI sector growth and lower exposure to Middle Eastern energy shocks[11][13] - Major global stock indices, including the S&P 500 and European STOXX600, experienced declines of 1.90% and 3.79% respectively, reflecting the broader market's reaction to geopolitical tensions[16][12] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 8.8% to $112.19 per barrel, while WTI prices saw a slight decrease of 0.5% to $98.2 per barrel, indicating a widening price gap due to geopolitical risks[19] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for February increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating rising inflation pressures[9][10] - Industrial production in the US showed a month-on-month decline of 0.15%, while initial jobless claims remained stable at 205,000, suggesting a mixed economic outlook[9][10] - The Australian central bank raised its interest rate to 4.1%, with expectations for 2-3 more hikes this year, reflecting concerns over inflation driven by the conflict[9][19]

Core Viewpoint - The attack by Iran on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has significantly impacted global LNG supply, leading to a projected supply disruption of approximately 4-5% over the next 3-5 years, which is about 17% of the future supply. This situation has heightened energy prices, making them a central variable driving macro asset movements, while central banks have adopted a hawkish stance that reinforces the sensitivity of front-end rates to energy prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of the Attack - The attack on the Ras Laffan LNG facility, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply, is expected to result in a production halt lasting 3-5 years, equating to a 4-5% reduction in global LNG supply [3][4]. - The conflict has revealed Iran's strategic intent to leverage energy prices to exert influence on the global economy, indicating potential long-term structural damage to supply [3][4]. - The longer the conflict persists, the wider the distribution of rising energy prices, with recovery to normalcy potentially taking longer even if a resolution is reached [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Responses - The collective meetings of the three major central banks failed to stabilize the market, instead reinforcing the market's pricing of energy inflation through hawkish policies [6][9]. - The Bank of England adopted the most hawkish stance, surprising the market by removing dovish language and indicating readiness to tighten policy in response to prolonged shocks [9][10]. - The European Central Bank's communication suggested a higher-than-expected transmission of energy shocks to core inflation, with potential rate hikes ranging from 25 to 150 basis points depending on scenarios [11][10]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Fiscal Response - The trajectory of economic growth is heavily dependent on the presence of fiscal responses, with limited fiscal space in the UK projected to constrain government support for energy prices [15][16]. - The current market pricing indicates a significant tightening of policies, which could lead to substantial downward growth risks if large-scale fiscal support is not provided [16][17]. - Goldman Sachs maintains that the convexity of energy prices remains upward, with prolonged conflict leading to stronger supply damage and wider price distributions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The attack by Iran on the world's largest LNG facility is expected to cause a significant supply disruption, with a potential 3-5 year recovery period, impacting global LNG supply by approximately 4-5% [3][4][14] - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have failed to stabilize the market and have adopted a hawkish stance, linking interest rates closely to energy prices [3][9][13] Group 1: Impact of the Attack - The attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply, is projected to lead to a supply disruption of around 17% over the next 3-5 years [4][5] - The ongoing conflict is expected to create long-term structural damage to supply, increasing the risk of insufficient gas storage levels in Europe for the upcoming winter [4][5][14] Group 2: Central Banks' Response - The three central banks did not manage to calm the market, and their hawkish responses have intensified the sensitivity of front-end interest rates to energy prices [7][9] - The Bank of England's stance was the most hawkish, removing dovish language and indicating readiness to tighten policy in response to prolonged shocks [9][10] - The European Central Bank's forecasts suggest that energy shocks will have a greater impact on core inflation than previously expected, with potential rate hikes ranging from 25 to 150 basis points depending on scenarios [10][11] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The potential for rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appears very limited, with energy price dynamics continuing to trend upwards [6][14] - The lack of substantial fiscal response could lead to significant downward growth risks, particularly in the UK, where fiscal space is severely constrained [13][14] - The overall tightening of financial conditions is evident, with the UK experiencing the most aggressive tightening, followed by the US [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield curve continues to steepen, and the interest rate is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation pattern. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe inflation changes, focusing on short - end certain opportunities. The participation opportunities for medium - and long - term varieties may be taking shape, and caution should be exercised regarding ultra - long - term varieties [3][4][29]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Event Reviews - **Financial Data**: In the first two months of 2026, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.2% in the stock at the end of February. The increase in RMB loans was 5.61 trillion yuan, and the M2 balance at the end of February increased by 9% year - on - year. The main support for social financing in February was on - balance - sheet credit, while the main drag was government bond financing. In terms of credit, corporate credit performed well, while the household sector continued to de - leverage. Looking ahead, the government's fiscal - financial cooperation measures are expected to support social financing and credit, but government bond financing may be affected by a high base [10][11]. - **Economic Data**: From January to February 2026, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%, and fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8%. Most sectors showed improved year - on - year readings. In March, the year - on - year readings in the production and consumption sectors may decline, while investment growth is expected to rise further driven by new policy - based financial instruments [12][13]. - **Fiscal Data**: From January to February 2026, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 3.6%. The national government - managed fund budget revenue decreased by 16%, and expenditure increased by 16%. The characteristics of front - loaded fiscal efforts are obvious. It is expected that the growth rate of public fiscal expenditure will further increase, while the year - on - year growth rate of government - managed fund expenditure may be affected by a high base [14]. 3.2 Funding Prices - During the tax period from March 13th to March 19th, the central bank's net open - market injection was 155.5 billion yuan to cope with the tax period. The funding prices remained stable overall, with DR007 slightly dropping from 1.47% to 1.43% and DR014 rising slightly due to the cross - quarter factor. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the impact of the reduction in inter - bank deposit interest rates continued [15][16]. 3.3 Primary Market - From March 13th to March 19th, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 996.2 billion yuan, and the net financing scale turned positive. The issuance scales of both treasury bonds and special bonds increased. In March, the issuance term of local bonds was shortened, and the proportion of the issuance scale of bonds with a term of over 10 years dropped below 50%. As of March 19th, the new issuance of special bonds in 2026 was about 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025 [18]. 3.4 Secondary Market - From March 13th to March 19th, short - term treasury bond yields declined, while medium - and long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the yield curve continued to steepen, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising by 2bp to 1.83%. The decline in short - term interest rates was mainly driven by loose funding and the reduction in inter - bank deposit interest rates. The medium - and long - term bond market continued to weaken due to the strong year - on - year readings of consumption, investment, and production in January - February data and the impact of energy inflation [21]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The economic data at the beginning of the year has a certain impact on the bond market, but some data improvements are related to the Spring Festival. The readings in March may decline seasonally. Supply - side inflation pressure has a relatively limited impact on the bond market, and future attention should be paid to the contribution of the demand side to inflation. - **Policy**: The front - loaded use of fiscal and quasi - fiscal tools is currently a negative factor for the bond market, which is in line with the economic trend in January - February. - **Funding**: The optimization of the inter - bank deposit structure helps banks relieve the pressure on interest rate spreads, and there is less need for a full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut. The central bank still has room to passively inject base money through foreign exchange purchases, and the funding is expected to remain moderately loose [29][30].

Policy Insights - The FOMC statement indicates a hawkish stance, with a potential interest rate cut expected once this year[4] - The economic forecast (SEP) shows a moderate increase in inflation risk, with PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027[5] - The Federal funds rate is projected to be 3.4% in 2026, unchanged from previous projections[8] Economic Context - The backdrop of the March FOMC meeting includes significant uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[4] - Powell emphasized the instability of inflation expectations and the need to balance inflation and employment targets[3] - The CPI is currently at 3%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[4] Market Reactions - Risk assets have declined due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and hawkish signals from the Fed[7] - The PPI increased by 3.4%, exceeding expectations, which may further influence market sentiment[7] - The market is currently pricing in one or more interest rate cuts this year, depending on inflation trends and economic performance[7]