能源金属 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 碳酸锂市场供需逆转，储能需求超预期增长叠加供给侧调整推动价格上 涨，期货价格一度达到 13 万元。预计未来两年受益于储能需求和供给 侧调整，2026 年后行业资本开支减少导致产能投放减少，中国在全球 供应占比将提升。 2026 年碳酸锂供应量预计在 205-210 万吨左右，产能弹性有限。需求 主要由动力电池和储能驱动，预计动力电池增速 15-20%，储能增速 50%，可能出现小幅过剩，但产业链低库存或将缓解过剩程度，看好 2026 年价格上涨。 预计碳酸锂价格突破 15 万元是大概率事件，但需关注供给释放节奏和 需求端接受程度。当前金属价格已达 12-13 万元左右，即使考虑波动也 已超过 10 万元以上，看好整个板块权益投资机会。 镍市场供给高度集中，印尼政策调整对镍矿供应产生影响，镍价底部修 复预期强烈。RKA b 政策配额调整将导致供应紧张，预计对供给端影响 在 10-15%左右，有助于改善行业过剩幅度。 Q&A 能否概述一下 2025 年碳酸锂市场的整体表现及其主要驱动因素？ 2025 年，碳酸锂市场经历了显著波动。年初价格从最高点的 60 ...

我们对碳酸锂市场持坚定看多的态度。无论是商品还是权益，明年（2026 年）所有板块中，我们将能源金属放在首位，主要因为其高赔率和明确方向。 近期江西宜春注销了 27 个矿山的采矿权，但实质性影响有限，因为大部分矿 权本身已经到期且未开采。此外，宜春碱下屋环评流程结束后，还需获得安全 许可证才能正常开采，这意味着宁德复产可能推迟至明年 1 月或 2 月。 供给问 题并非主要矛盾，真正矛盾在于需求。尽管新能源汽车补贴减少可能引发担忧， 但我们了解到中下游对一季度排产仍较为乐观。因此，只要去库状态维持，一 季度锂价将保持偏强震荡。当前海外锂矿价格约为 1,200 美元/吨，对应国内锂 价至少在 10 万至 11 万元左右，因此现有 9 万至 10 万元的价格具有较强支撑。 旗帜鲜明，看多锂！20251222 摘要 宜春锂矿复产或推迟，宁德时代采矿权影响有限，需关注安全许可证获 取进度，预计复产时间可能在明年 1 月或 2 月。 新能源汽车补贴退坡虽有影响，但中下游企业对一季度排产仍持乐观态 度，去库存状态是影响锂价的关键因素，预计一季度锂价将维持偏强震 荡。 海外锂矿价格支撑国内锂价，当前海外锂矿价格约 1,200 ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector has seen a significant rise, with a 7.62% increase on September 5, driven by policy guidance for the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries [1] - The combination of proactive government policies and effective market mechanisms has enhanced industry governance, solidifying existing industry scales and injecting confidence into the energy metals market [1] - Key metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel are essential for the production, storage, and transmission of energy, forming the backbone of the entire new energy technology system [1] Market Performance - Notable stock performances include Tianhua New Energy, which saw a price surge to 23.81 yuan, marking a 20.01% increase and a market cap of 16.013 billion [1] - Ganfeng Lithium experienced a 10.01% rise, with a stock price of 44.61 yuan and a market cap of 53.882 billion [1] - Other companies like Hanrui Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, and Zhongkuang Resources also reported significant gains, with increases of 9.72%, 8.65%, and 7.58% respectively [1] - Overall, the sector showed a positive trend with 13 gainers, 0 losers, and 4 unchanged stocks, alongside a net capital inflow of 3.94 billion [1] Demand Drivers - The demand for energy metals is experiencing explosive growth due to the continuous expansion of the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries [2] - The market size of lithium batteries, crucial for electric vehicles and energy storage devices, is directly driving the demand for upstream metals like lithium and cobalt [2] - Policy guidance is stabilizing market expectations and attracting significant capital inflow into the energy metals sector [2] Supply Chain Optimization - Policies are aiding in optimizing the supply chain of energy metals, enhancing overall industry competitiveness [2] - By regulating market order and promoting industry consolidation and upgrades, companies can better manage market fluctuations and resource shortages [2] Investment Considerations - Despite the growth opportunities presented by policies, the energy metals sector faces uncertainties, including limited resource availability and potential price volatility due to increasing demand [2] - Technological innovations may alter the demand structure for energy metals, posing risks if new substitute technologies emerge [2] - The recent surge in stock prices may indicate potential valuation bubble risks, necessitating a thorough analysis of companies' fundamentals, including resource reserves and production costs [3]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth in revenue and net profit for both 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a robust performance in the industry [1][2]. 2024 Performance Summary - The total revenue for the non-ferrous metal sector reached 34,513.33 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.78% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,377.77 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.74% - The total asset return rate was 5.01%, while the net asset return rate stood at 3.04% - The overall stock price increase for the sector was 10.89%, ranking it 20th among sectors, with varied performance across sub-sectors [2]. Q1 2025 Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector's total revenue was 8,409.19 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.91% - The net profit attributable to shareholders surged to 440.86 billion, a significant increase of 68.20% - The total asset return rate improved to 5.39%, and the net asset return rate rose to 5.46% - The overall stock price increase for the sector was 13.14%, placing it 3rd among sectors, with all sub-sectors experiencing price increases [1][2]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on investment opportunities in precious metals, despite recent fluctuations in gold prices due to improved U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical uncertainties - Caution is advised regarding energy metals, as demand may be negatively impacted by tariffs, regional protectionism, and a slowdown in electric vehicle penetration, although there is potential for price increases due to supply disruptions [3].