瑞银展望 2026："慢牛"：为何慢，为何牛 20251121 摘要 中国政策重心转向"止跌企稳"，并加大对民营企业和股票市场的支持 力度，包括推出《民营经济促进法》、国家队入场以及提升上市公司治 理要求，为市场稳定奠定基础。 中国在 Deepseek 技术、创新药、半导体等领域展现出创新活力，国产 替代趋势明显，新能源和电动车等传统行业保持增长，增强了出口韧性， 为经济发展注入新动力。 央行通过逆回购注入流动性，居民存款流入股市，保险资金加仓 A 股和 港股，外资配置提升，整体交易量维持高位，为股市上涨提供资金支持。 尽管面临美国科技制裁和关税压力，但中国通过稀土等筹码进行谈判， 关税谈判结果超预期，地缘政治影响减弱，稳定预期有助于投资者信心 恢复。 预计 2025 年 A 股盈利增长约为 6%，前三季度为 5%。2026 年，反内 卷对 PPI 的推动以及整体利润率的提升，将进一步推动 A 股盈利加速， 企业盈利复苏将提振市场。 Q&A 2025 年中国股市表现强劲的主要驱动因素有哪些？ 2025 年中国股市表现强劲，主要由以下四个因素驱动： 融资余额虽创新高，但占自由流通市值比例仍处于历史均值水平，未有 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.38% and the computer industry index increasing by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.99 percentage points [1][2] - The TMT sector emerged as a major market hotspot this week [1][2] - Nvidia is stepping back from its cloud services role for external customers, which is seen as a strategy to "protect its moat and avoid distractions," solidifying its leading position in the GPU market but also indicating a sacrifice of some "upward integration" opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - Following Nvidia's withdrawal from cloud services, it will form a simple upstream-downstream relationship with domestic cloud providers, alleviating concerns about competition and allowing these providers to accelerate the development of domestic GPU ecosystems, benefiting the strategy of self-control [2] - The investment rating for the computer industry remains at "overweight," with electronic industry market share reaching new highs, although some traditional sectors are beginning to compete for market funds against the TMT sector [2] - Short-term strategies suggest continued optimism for the electronic industry (AI chips), cautious optimism for the communication industry (optical modules), and the computer industry (AI servers) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Shenying, a leading company in the carbon fiber sector, demonstrated resilient operational performance in its 2024 annual report despite facing competitive pressures, showcasing the significant potential of its self-controlled strategy [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongfu Shenying achieved operating revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.07%. However, the company actively responded to market changes through technological innovation and cost control, effectively enhancing product competitiveness [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -124 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to industry supply-demand imbalance and declining product prices. Nevertheless, the net cash inflow from operating activities reached 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.67%, indicating a strong cash flow position [1]. Industry Context - Carbon fiber, known as "black gold" in the new materials sector, is a strategic emerging industry globally due to its excellent mechanical properties and wide application prospects. In 2019, China's carbon fiber import dependency was as high as 72.22%, which limited the development of related industries and increased supply chain risks [1]. - Zhongfu Shenying has been committed to a self-controlled strategy to break foreign technology barriers and achieve independent innovation and industrialization in carbon fiber technology. The company currently ranks among the world's top in carbon fiber production capacity and is the only domestic enterprise to have mastered the industrialization technology of dry-jet wet-spinning carbon fiber at a scale of ten thousand tons [2]. Market Opportunities - With the current "tariff battle," Zhongfu Shenying may encounter further development opportunities. Increased tariffs on imported carbon fiber will raise costs, allowing Zhongfu Shenying to leverage its advantages in technology, cost, and production capacity to expand market share and enhance domestic carbon fiber supply capabilities [2]. - The company is actively expanding the application fields of carbon fiber, enhancing product added value. Its products are widely used in aerospace, new energy, and sports leisure sectors, and it is developing applications in emerging fields such as wind turbine blades and building reinforcement [2]. Conclusion - The 2024 annual report from Zhongfu Shenying reflects the company's robust operational stance and the immense potential of its self-controlled strategy in the face of market challenges. With the continuous growth of domestic carbon fiber demand and changes in tariff policies, Zhongfu Shenying is poised to seize market opportunities and further enhance the domestic supply capacity of carbon fiber, contributing significantly to the development of China's carbon fiber industry [3].