更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 "回顾 2025":A 股关键变化暗示未来投资主线 20260102 手调研究 争 匆 争 匆 - · 全球货币秩序重构是牛市主因,美元和美债信任危机促使资金多元化配置, 中国股市受益,中美贸易谈判超预期及中国经济韧性亦构成支撑。 A 股市场基本面由新经济驱动,AI 和出海板块 2025年前三季度业绩增长 . 17%，占比达五成，旧经济占比下降，中国资产迎来重估。 科技板块估值先行是科技创新常见特征,A 股科技板块有产业基础,需求 ● 来自自主可控战略和产业升级,领军企业订单超百亿,需鉴别盈利能力。 2025 年 A 股呈现科技成长与高股息红利双主线格局,资产配置需攻守平 . 衡,高股息配置需求与中国经济周期和资产荒有关,新质生产力吸引资金。 2026 年消费板块或迎投资机会,经济工作会议强调扩大内需,消费品内 部结构发生变化,新兴品牌崛起,高分红特点吸引稳健投资者。 服数据加V： shuimu2026 ● 美国降息对 A 股资金面有判,人民币资产吸引力上升,但国际货币秩序重 构带来波动 şky数资公 市有助于改变 A 股市场格局，险资等长期资金在低点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, indicating a "slow bull" market trend for 2026, supported by various economic and policy factors [1]. Core Insights - The shift in China's policy focus towards stabilizing the economy and supporting private enterprises and the stock market is expected to lay a solid foundation for market stability [1]. - Innovations in sectors such as Deepseek technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are driving growth, alongside traditional industries like renewable energy and electric vehicles, enhancing export resilience [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injections and increased foreign investment are providing substantial support for the stock market, with overall trading volumes remaining high [1][4]. - Despite challenges from U.S. technology sanctions, China's negotiation leverage, particularly in rare earths, has led to better-than-expected outcomes in tariff negotiations, which is helping to stabilize investor confidence [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - Since September 2024, there has been a notable shift in policy to support the economy and stock market, including changes in real estate policy and enhanced support for private entrepreneurs [3]. - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" and increased governance requirements for listed companies are part of this supportive framework [3]. Innovation and Growth - China is showcasing significant innovations in various fields, with a clear trend towards domestic substitution in technology and pharmaceuticals, while traditional sectors continue to grow [3][5]. - The ongoing advancements in AI and semiconductor industries are expected to create new growth points for the market [5]. Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The central bank's liquidity measures, including reverse repos, are facilitating a flow of funds into the stock market, with insurance and foreign capital increasing their positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4][10]. - The financing balance has reached historical highs but remains within historical averages, indicating no overheating in the market [11]. Geopolitical Considerations - The geopolitical risks are perceived as manageable, with clearer boundaries established in U.S.-China negotiations, which is fostering a more stable investment environment [6]. - The report suggests that addressing the issue of "involution" in various industries could significantly boost overall earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]. Market Performance Expectations - The report anticipates a 6% growth in A-share earnings for 2025, with further acceleration expected in 2026 due to improved profit margins and PPI influences [8][9]. - The overall sentiment among investors is expected to improve, driven by the influx of personal, leveraged, and institutional funds into the stock market [14].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.38% and the computer industry index increasing by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.99 percentage points [1][2] - The TMT sector emerged as a major market hotspot this week [1][2] - Nvidia is stepping back from its cloud services role for external customers, which is seen as a strategy to "protect its moat and avoid distractions," solidifying its leading position in the GPU market but also indicating a sacrifice of some "upward integration" opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - Following Nvidia's withdrawal from cloud services, it will form a simple upstream-downstream relationship with domestic cloud providers, alleviating concerns about competition and allowing these providers to accelerate the development of domestic GPU ecosystems, benefiting the strategy of self-control [2] - The investment rating for the computer industry remains at "overweight," with electronic industry market share reaching new highs, although some traditional sectors are beginning to compete for market funds against the TMT sector [2] - Short-term strategies suggest continued optimism for the electronic industry (AI chips), cautious optimism for the communication industry (optical modules), and the computer industry (AI servers) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Shenying, a leading company in the carbon fiber sector, demonstrated resilient operational performance in its 2024 annual report despite facing competitive pressures, showcasing the significant potential of its self-controlled strategy [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongfu Shenying achieved operating revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.07%. However, the company actively responded to market changes through technological innovation and cost control, effectively enhancing product competitiveness [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -124 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to industry supply-demand imbalance and declining product prices. Nevertheless, the net cash inflow from operating activities reached 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.67%, indicating a strong cash flow position [1]. Industry Context - Carbon fiber, known as "black gold" in the new materials sector, is a strategic emerging industry globally due to its excellent mechanical properties and wide application prospects. In 2019, China's carbon fiber import dependency was as high as 72.22%, which limited the development of related industries and increased supply chain risks [1]. - Zhongfu Shenying has been committed to a self-controlled strategy to break foreign technology barriers and achieve independent innovation and industrialization in carbon fiber technology. The company currently ranks among the world's top in carbon fiber production capacity and is the only domestic enterprise to have mastered the industrialization technology of dry-jet wet-spinning carbon fiber at a scale of ten thousand tons [2]. Market Opportunities - With the current "tariff battle," Zhongfu Shenying may encounter further development opportunities. Increased tariffs on imported carbon fiber will raise costs, allowing Zhongfu Shenying to leverage its advantages in technology, cost, and production capacity to expand market share and enhance domestic carbon fiber supply capabilities [2]. - The company is actively expanding the application fields of carbon fiber, enhancing product added value. Its products are widely used in aerospace, new energy, and sports leisure sectors, and it is developing applications in emerging fields such as wind turbine blades and building reinforcement [2]. Conclusion - The 2024 annual report from Zhongfu Shenying reflects the company's robust operational stance and the immense potential of its self-controlled strategy in the face of market challenges. With the continuous growth of domestic carbon fiber demand and changes in tariff policies, Zhongfu Shenying is poised to seize market opportunities and further enhance the domestic supply capacity of carbon fiber, contributing significantly to the development of China's carbon fiber industry [3].